A viral chart that doesn't say what you think it does

On political independents.

Late last week, polling from Gallup on the rise of independent voters started to make the rounds of the Internet.

Axios put the data into a chart Monday morning. Here it is:

The findings seemed decidedly newsworthy, right? HALF of the country now identifies as politically independent — while just one in four identify with one of the two major parties.

And, it is TRUE that more people are identifying as independents in Gallup polling than at any time in the past two years.

The conclusion seems simple. Republicans and Democrats are failing voters! The two-party system is imploding! Now is the time for the emergence of a serious third party!

Notice I said seems simple.

Because, well, it’s not so simple.

Because, if you scroll down in the Gallup data, you see this:

So, when asked an open-ended question about which party they identify with, lots and lots of people say they are political independents. But when those same independents are pushed slightly to choose a party, a whole bunch do!

There’s a reason for this. And it goes like this: Most people who say they are political independents are, in fact, not independents but rather hidden partisans.

The fact is that in the last two decades, it has become very fashionable to call yourself a political independent.

Think about it: What would you rather be — someone who blindly follows a political party or someone who analyzes each candidate to see whether they are the sort of person who should represent you?

Uh, yeah. Being an independent is a vibe — it says you are open minded, flexible and not beholden to either of our major political parties. It’s how a lot of people — especially young people — see themselves: As free agents who make thoughtful and not-partisan decisions about American politics.

The problem? When rubber meets road, these independents are not actually independents. In major elections — like a presidential race -- they tend to retreat to one of the two major parties.

Many years ago, the Washington Post did a groundbreaking study on political independents, which made this point in powerful terms.

The survey found that roughly 30% of voters were political independents. (That number has clearly surged in the 15 years since the poll was done.)

It broke down independents into 5 distinct categories:

Disengaged: (24% of independents)
Disguised Partisans: (24%)
Deliberators: (18%)
Disillusioned: (18%)
Dislocated: (16%)

And, before we go further, a quick review of what those categories mean (as defined by WaPo/Kaiser Family Foundation):

Disengaged: “These independents are largely removed from the political fray, often by choice.”

Disguised Partisans: “These independents think like partisans; they also tend to vote like them. And naturally, they come in two flavors — “Disguised Democrats” and “Disguised Republicans.”

Deliberators: “Deliberators are classic swing voters who believe in the two-party system, tend to have favorable views of the parties and repeatedly strut their independence at the ballot box.”

Disillusioned: “These independents are deeply dissatisfied with politics today and antagonistic to both parties and the two-party system itself.”

Dislocated: “These independents are overwhelmingly socially liberal and fiscally conservative, making them uncomfortable with increasingly polarized parties.”

Ok, now let’s focus on the two biggest types of independent voters — the disengaged and the disguised partisans. Do the math and you see that they account for HALF of all independents. Meaning that lots of independents are either just partisans dressed up as independents or are just so checked out of the political process that they default to identifying as independents.

Think about that for a second and you begin to see why, despite the steady rise of independents, we haven’t seen the emergence of a viable third party option in recent years.¹

The simple fact is that for all the people who talk the independent game, lots of them are either a) actually partisans in disguise or b) so checked out from the political process that they just don’t participate in elections at all.

So, how many people are actually independents? Gallup data says around 14% — which is in keeping with the “deliberators” number that WaPo found back in 2007.

In 2020 exit polling, the number is higher; 26% said they are political independents as compared to 37% who called themselves Democrats and 36% who said they were Republicans.

But, it’s safe to assume that 50% of the public are not, in fact, independents. If half that many are, I’d be surprised.

Which is NOT to say that independents don’t matter! They clearly do! In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 6 points among indies — and went on to narrowly win. Four years later, Joe Biden won independents by 13 points — and beat Trump nationally.

What it is to say is that there are a lot less actual independents out in the country than polls would have you believe. Fashioning yourself as an independent to a pollster is very different than being an actual independent in something as polarizing as a presidential race.

1. In fact, we’ve seen quite the opposite. Over the past 15 years, there have been a slew of third party efforts aimed at putting together a unity ticket that will capitalize on the rising number of independents in the country. All have failed. Miserably.