Are cracks starting to show in Donald Trump's armor?
Maybe.
There are three data points worth noting in a new CNN poll on the state of the 2024 Republican race:
Those Republicans saying they would never vote for Donald Trump went from 16% in May to 23% now
His favorability rating among Republicans fell from 77% in May to 67% now
He dipped from 53% in a hypothetical 2024 matchup in May to 47% now
Any one of those data points on their own isn’t particularly concerning for Trump. But, taken together — and considering that the more recent CNN poll was conducted following his second indictment of the year — they suggest that there is at least the possibility that the former president may be losing rather than gaining momentum in the race.
To be clear: he is still the clear frontrunner to be the nominee. While Trump took only 47% of the vote, he still led Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 21 points. And no other candidate even cracked double digits.
And, even when factoring in the CNN poll, Trump is still, on average, over 50% of the vote in the primary, according to Real Clear Politics.
Polling in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire is more scarce but, generally speaking suggests the race in those places mirror the national picture: Trump with a clear lead followed by DeSantis and then the rest of the pack significantly further behind.
So, Trump is the leader. The question for Trump — and the rest of the field is trajectory. If you look closely at this chart (Trump is the purple line), again from RCP, it does suggest a slight downturn — although it may be the result of just the CNN poll so buyer beware.
The theory of the case for all candidates not named Trump in the field has long been that, at some point, the collective weight of all the controversy surrounding the frontrunner will add up.
That, although Trump has weathered past storms — and even benefited from them — there is a tipping point coming from which he can’t and won’t recover.
If you are of that mindset, there’s enough in the CNN poll to give you some hope. Particularly concerning for Trump and his team should be the fact that less than 70% of Republicans now view him favorably.
That could well be the first sign of real cracking in Trump’s iron grip over the GOP, an early warning sign that he is weakening.
If that is true — and I genuinely think we need more data before we can feel comfortable in that conclusion — then there are a few things to watch for.
What does Trump do? Trump had, in the race to date, enjoyed a relentlessly upward trajectory. His lead over DeSantis and the rest of the field has steadily increased as the year has worn on. We know that Trump is an obsessive poll watcher. Does he freak out if the data suddenly suggests his candidacy is not as teflon as it once looked? Does he fire aides? Does he, in other words, do the sort of stuff that makes him look less like a frontrunner?
What do Trump’s opponents do? Even if Trump is weakening, a problem remains for the rest of the field: There are just too many of them. Yes, more Republicans want someone other than Trump than want Trump in the CNN poll. But, while Trump’s vote is unified behind him, the “other” vote is split at least eight ways. That may not matter today but as we get closer to actual votes, the more the anti-Trump vote is split up, the more advantageous for the former president.
What I am most intrigued by is whether small cracks in Trump’s bid for the nomination turn into big ones.
To date in his political life, Trump has been remarkably adept at turning losses into wins — mostly by never admitting he lost. He has been able to weather things — the “Access Hollywood” tape, January 6 — that would crush other politicians.
The question now is whether the weight of so many scandals and so many legal entanglements (with the possibility of more coming) over so many years is slowly but surely crushing Trump.
Whether these cracks — made evident by the CNN poll — are evidence of deep structural failings when it comes to Trump’s support within the GOP or simply minor breaks that, in the end, won’t amount to much remains to be seen. Like I said, I think we need more data before we can start to draw real conclusions about whether the slippage is real.
What’s clear today is that Trump is in a less dominant position than he was even a month ago. What’s far less clear is whether any of his opponents can actually take advantage of that fact.
C.C.
Trump's perspective is that he hit a home run on that FOX interview.
Yet, we have not heard similar rumblings from the usual passel of Right-Wing nuts in the House and Senate on that appearance. (seems like a tell)
Surprised that Trump hasn't had any major rallies.
Perhaps his staff realizes that the no-show-ups in Manhattan and limited crowd size in Miami for the inductments means fringe supporters, those who attend for the "entertainment factor" are tiring of his shtick. (another tell)
Lastly, fringe Republicans and Center-Right Independents watching his discombobulated meandering answers in interviews must be dismaying.
Trump's continued ranting about winning the 2020 election must be tiresome to thinking conservatives.
Likewise, his "policies" seem to revolve around vengeance, grievance, and paybacks for perceived injustices.
Your brilliant analogy of being on a Disneyland waiting line is proving true.
The diehards will remain, but those who voted for Trump as a vote against Hillary and Uncle Joe, will more readily walk away from the danger that is the Secessionist-in-Chief.
my sense is that most, if not all, of your readers want to believe the fat orange one is losing his stronghold on the red party. my sense also tells me that until he's gone, he's not gone. we've gone down this road for some 8 years and he's still rolling right along. you gotta give him credit; i doubt there is another person in this country that could pull this off. but (big but), i wake up every day hoping to see a headline saying that he's gone (in any way shape or form - jailed, deceased, stroke, you name it). unfortunately we all know that hope is not a strategy for success.