Trump's perspective is that he hit a home run on that FOX interview.
Yet, we have not heard similar rumblings from the usual passel of Right-Wing nuts in the House and Senate on that appearance. (seems like a tell)
Surprised that Trump hasn't had any major rallies.
Perhaps his staff realizes that the no-show-ups in Manhattan and limited crowd size in Miami for the inductments means fringe supporters, those who attend for the "entertainment factor" are tiring of his shtick. (another tell)
Lastly, fringe Republicans and Center-Right Independents watching his discombobulated meandering answers in interviews must be dismaying.
Trump's continued ranting about winning the 2020 election must be tiresome to thinking conservatives.
Likewise, his "policies" seem to revolve around vengeance, grievance, and paybacks for perceived injustices.
Your brilliant analogy of being on a Disneyland waiting line is proving true.
The diehards will remain, but those who voted for Trump as a vote against Hillary and Uncle Joe, will more readily walk away from the danger that is the Secessionist-in-Chief.
my sense is that most, if not all, of your readers want to believe the fat orange one is losing his stronghold on the red party. my sense also tells me that until he's gone, he's not gone. we've gone down this road for some 8 years and he's still rolling right along. you gotta give him credit; i doubt there is another person in this country that could pull this off. but (big but), i wake up every day hoping to see a headline saying that he's gone (in any way shape or form - jailed, deceased, stroke, you name it). unfortunately we all know that hope is not a strategy for success.
The cracks in the armor is the wrong metaphor, IMO (the best I have). It's cracks in a dam or a water pipe. It only gets bigger and bigger. There is no way to stop a leak. It needs to be repaired, most likely rebuilt. As the voices of those that have found their spines, as mushy and self serving as they are, (Christie, Barr, et al) are repeated, more people join them as they now have cover. It is a rare Republican who will say the emperor has no clothes (Cheney, Romney) because we never did learn what happened to that honest kid who said it first, and few want to find out. Sticking with the children's tales, the little Dutch Boy who stuck his finger in the dyke to stop the leak doesn't have enough fingers to stop all the leaks we have here. Every wet drip will become bigger. The question is which of these sycophants who have stood by all these years will know how to swim in the coming flood and is the MAGA monster going to pull them under.
I must have said it wrong if you don’t get my point that there are leaks in the dam of support which will become bigger and bigger until there will be a gush and the dam will break.
What got Hillary was the hacking by Russia and Comey’s idiotic reopening announcement. But if this kind of dripping gets TFG, so be it, though not my point.
Enough BS going down the pipes will clog a leak. That is the Trump strategy. As Steve Bannon says, Flood the zone. The dam already broke for Trump, major donors no longer support him. and he has exhausted his small dollar donors. He is a dead man walking....Ivanka Trump even has dumped him! :-)
Just to look aside from Trump on this, I’d like to think that every little bit he slips in the polling hurts Congressional Republicans a little more. They already have no defense for his having stolen the country’s secrets and the trial hasn’t even started yet. Another year and half of interviews like that Baier one can’t help either.
“You have multiple members of the Biden family profiting illegally from foreign governments. You also have the bombshell reporting including potential tapes that exist of while Joe Biden was president taking a bribe from Burisma. This reeks of corruption, and we’re going to make sure we follow the facts, and I want to say that Jamie Comer, who is our Chair of Oversight and Government Reform, he’s been doing a tremendous job following the facts…And as I said, tens of millions of dollars. These are illegal bribes and illegal corruption.”
That nonsense on a cracker is from Elise Stefanik. She has a primary challenger in a presumably normal Republican, Jill Lochner. I’m hopeful that some of the other MAGA Republicans are being challenged by Normies.
Many districts, I’m sure, are out of reach of having a Democrat elected. If Trump continuing to fall and his minions having to continue to issue more and more insane “defenses” lead to a saner Congress that’s one small step.
Quite honestly, I am afraid of letting that small crack into my brain, afraid of being optimistic. Teflon Don has been in so many situations that anyone else would be damaged beyond repair. I am hoping that with potentially one or 2 more indictments, the crack will widen but not going into that headspace. Never ever thought he’d win in 2016, never will I think he doesn’t have it in him to repeat that. Major players on the GOP side need to come out swinging against him, if not, he’s not going away. I don’t want him to become the nominee, would like to see someone emerge and take those punches repeatedly at Trump. Asa Hutchison can be critical of Trump but he’s not in your face the way Christie can be. Will Christie be able to attack and push through, no confidence there but he’s the best hope. I’d like to see Liz Cheney run and think she could be compelling and has the name recognition. Even still, will that be enough? Trump has a very tight grip on the GOP.
Elaine this is right. I think he is still the prime mover in Republican politics, for sure. And if his grip has loosened it's only a little bit looser.
It appears to me that the theory of death by a thousand strikes is applying here. We will see as he still has one or two more potential criminal charges that could be brought against him. Fingers crossed🤞
1) His opponents--the serious ones, I mean (DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Pence) are absolutely terrified of him and won't say "boo" to upset that cultish base. So, in short, they will do nothing to take opportunities that may present themselves.
2) The non-serious opponents (Christie, Hutchinson) barely register on any polls. Nothing they say or do will matter, anyway.
I mostly agree with that analysis of the Republican field. However, even though Christie doesn’t have a shot in hell of winning a single primary, his rightfully pointing out the issues w Trump & his indictments (particularly having been a fed prosecutor) will likely have the effect of further “chipping away” at his Party’s support. At least, that’s what I HOPE will be the effect, but we’ll just have to see.
And I agree wholeheartedly with Chris that the key to the primaries is WHEN the non-Trump candidates decide to get out and leave the possibility of coalescing around the single non-Trump left.
Honestly? I think Trump will be the nominee and I think that he’s doing SO poorly with independents and Democrats (even an increasing number of Republicans, if the latest polls hold true) that he will limp across the line in the general. Of course, as we’ve seen, things can change and all bets could be off....
I believe there was always a danger with having a crowded field when there’s one candidate with a large and passionate base that isn’t quite at 50%. The Republicans in 2016 all hung around hoping to inherit his voters when he would supposedly collapse, but the winner-takes-all nature of most Republican primaries handed Trump most of the delegates as a result. Democrats saw a similar dynamic playing out with Bernie Sanders in 2020 and cleared the field for Biden after he won South Carolina rather than risk Bernie winning. They understood that the longer Biden was splitting the non-Bernie vote, the greater the risk Bernie might actually win.
That said, that’s what responsible candidates who realize they have no viable path to victory do when they realize their continued presence is doing more harm than good. The GOP field in 2016 wasn’t willing to come to that realization. Will they this time?
I think you hit on the key point. It's not how many candidates are running. It's when they decide to get out of the race. Staying in too long is hugely helpful for Trump as it allows him to win scores of delegates (Republicans allocate winner takes all) with somewhere between 30 and 40% of the overall vote.
Wow -- that's lower than I thought. Whether he gets the nomination or not, he can sync the GOP nominee in a general ... probably with a write in campaign!
To borrow a quote from the economist and former chair of the Federal Reserve, could your hypothesis be a function of "...irrational exuberance..."? Optimism run amok? My sense is we have to see if the trend continues for several cycles, and if other polls start showing the same trend. Your CNN point is valid, and the margin of error could also be a factor. And would like to see if the Bret Baier interview on Fox has any impact - not that it was any different from other interviews, however, it was broadcast on FOX...
Nevertheless, I am smiling today at the hope you might be correct - Thank you, and have a wonderful day!
Trump had two weeks between Jan 6 and Jan 20th to pardon his rioters and he did nothing. They will always remember that. That is why his current crowds to protest, or riot, are so small.
I like CC's analogies. Here is mine on Trump and the Documents Case. A few years ago my wife got pulled over for driving the wrong way on a one way street. She said that she had not seen the sign and apologized to the cop. He said to be more careful in the future and let her off. Now in the same scenario... Trump gets pulled over and says, I did not see the sign so I can keep driving in this direction. So he continues to drive the wrong way on the street, the cop calls other cops and soon there is a cop convoy following him as he drives the wrong way down the street. It ends when the cops blockade the street in front of Trump to stop him, and at that point, he still insists that he has every right to go the wrong way down the street. So now, for some reason, law enforcement is not going to let him off with just a warning. Duh!!! A totally self-inflicted wound for Trump. Maybe if he actually paid his lawyers, he would listen to them?
I read an article that made the point that the national polls do not matter as the popular vote does not matter. The electoral collage, and therefor the swing state votes, are all that matter. Biden has increased his lead in the those states over Trump, so as Trumps popularity is also decreasing, Trumps chance of winning in 2024 is about zero.
C.C.
Trump's perspective is that he hit a home run on that FOX interview.
Yet, we have not heard similar rumblings from the usual passel of Right-Wing nuts in the House and Senate on that appearance. (seems like a tell)
Surprised that Trump hasn't had any major rallies.
Perhaps his staff realizes that the no-show-ups in Manhattan and limited crowd size in Miami for the inductments means fringe supporters, those who attend for the "entertainment factor" are tiring of his shtick. (another tell)
Lastly, fringe Republicans and Center-Right Independents watching his discombobulated meandering answers in interviews must be dismaying.
Trump's continued ranting about winning the 2020 election must be tiresome to thinking conservatives.
Likewise, his "policies" seem to revolve around vengeance, grievance, and paybacks for perceived injustices.
Your brilliant analogy of being on a Disneyland waiting line is proving true.
The diehards will remain, but those who voted for Trump as a vote against Hillary and Uncle Joe, will more readily walk away from the danger that is the Secessionist-in-Chief.
No matter how long you have waited for the ride, if it becomes broken, you will leave the line.
Good point!!!
my sense is that most, if not all, of your readers want to believe the fat orange one is losing his stronghold on the red party. my sense also tells me that until he's gone, he's not gone. we've gone down this road for some 8 years and he's still rolling right along. you gotta give him credit; i doubt there is another person in this country that could pull this off. but (big but), i wake up every day hoping to see a headline saying that he's gone (in any way shape or form - jailed, deceased, stroke, you name it). unfortunately we all know that hope is not a strategy for success.
The cracks in the armor is the wrong metaphor, IMO (the best I have). It's cracks in a dam or a water pipe. It only gets bigger and bigger. There is no way to stop a leak. It needs to be repaired, most likely rebuilt. As the voices of those that have found their spines, as mushy and self serving as they are, (Christie, Barr, et al) are repeated, more people join them as they now have cover. It is a rare Republican who will say the emperor has no clothes (Cheney, Romney) because we never did learn what happened to that honest kid who said it first, and few want to find out. Sticking with the children's tales, the little Dutch Boy who stuck his finger in the dyke to stop the leak doesn't have enough fingers to stop all the leaks we have here. Every wet drip will become bigger. The question is which of these sycophants who have stood by all these years will know how to swim in the coming flood and is the MAGA monster going to pull them under.
The leaky dam is a good way to think about it. Thanks for that!
Drip, drip, drip. You are welcome.
Drip, drip, drip, is what got Hillary.
I must have said it wrong if you don’t get my point that there are leaks in the dam of support which will become bigger and bigger until there will be a gush and the dam will break.
What got Hillary was the hacking by Russia and Comey’s idiotic reopening announcement. But if this kind of dripping gets TFG, so be it, though not my point.
Enough BS going down the pipes will clog a leak. That is the Trump strategy. As Steve Bannon says, Flood the zone. The dam already broke for Trump, major donors no longer support him. and he has exhausted his small dollar donors. He is a dead man walking....Ivanka Trump even has dumped him! :-)
Just to look aside from Trump on this, I’d like to think that every little bit he slips in the polling hurts Congressional Republicans a little more. They already have no defense for his having stolen the country’s secrets and the trial hasn’t even started yet. Another year and half of interviews like that Baier one can’t help either.
“You have multiple members of the Biden family profiting illegally from foreign governments. You also have the bombshell reporting including potential tapes that exist of while Joe Biden was president taking a bribe from Burisma. This reeks of corruption, and we’re going to make sure we follow the facts, and I want to say that Jamie Comer, who is our Chair of Oversight and Government Reform, he’s been doing a tremendous job following the facts…And as I said, tens of millions of dollars. These are illegal bribes and illegal corruption.”
That nonsense on a cracker is from Elise Stefanik. She has a primary challenger in a presumably normal Republican, Jill Lochner. I’m hopeful that some of the other MAGA Republicans are being challenged by Normies.
Many districts, I’m sure, are out of reach of having a Democrat elected. If Trump continuing to fall and his minions having to continue to issue more and more insane “defenses” lead to a saner Congress that’s one small step.
They all signed a suicide pact by signing onto the election lie. Trump’s never going to let that go and Congressional Republicans can’t either.
Quite honestly, I am afraid of letting that small crack into my brain, afraid of being optimistic. Teflon Don has been in so many situations that anyone else would be damaged beyond repair. I am hoping that with potentially one or 2 more indictments, the crack will widen but not going into that headspace. Never ever thought he’d win in 2016, never will I think he doesn’t have it in him to repeat that. Major players on the GOP side need to come out swinging against him, if not, he’s not going away. I don’t want him to become the nominee, would like to see someone emerge and take those punches repeatedly at Trump. Asa Hutchison can be critical of Trump but he’s not in your face the way Christie can be. Will Christie be able to attack and push through, no confidence there but he’s the best hope. I’d like to see Liz Cheney run and think she could be compelling and has the name recognition. Even still, will that be enough? Trump has a very tight grip on the GOP.
Elaine this is right. I think he is still the prime mover in Republican politics, for sure. And if his grip has loosened it's only a little bit looser.
It appears to me that the theory of death by a thousand strikes is applying here. We will see as he still has one or two more potential criminal charges that could be brought against him. Fingers crossed🤞
I think that is the question. Are there more indictments to come and, if so, do they further weigh him down with voters?
1) His opponents--the serious ones, I mean (DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Pence) are absolutely terrified of him and won't say "boo" to upset that cultish base. So, in short, they will do nothing to take opportunities that may present themselves.
2) The non-serious opponents (Christie, Hutchinson) barely register on any polls. Nothing they say or do will matter, anyway.
I mostly agree with that analysis of the Republican field. However, even though Christie doesn’t have a shot in hell of winning a single primary, his rightfully pointing out the issues w Trump & his indictments (particularly having been a fed prosecutor) will likely have the effect of further “chipping away” at his Party’s support. At least, that’s what I HOPE will be the effect, but we’ll just have to see.
And I agree wholeheartedly with Chris that the key to the primaries is WHEN the non-Trump candidates decide to get out and leave the possibility of coalescing around the single non-Trump left.
Honestly? I think Trump will be the nominee and I think that he’s doing SO poorly with independents and Democrats (even an increasing number of Republicans, if the latest polls hold true) that he will limp across the line in the general. Of course, as we’ve seen, things can change and all bets could be off....
I believe there was always a danger with having a crowded field when there’s one candidate with a large and passionate base that isn’t quite at 50%. The Republicans in 2016 all hung around hoping to inherit his voters when he would supposedly collapse, but the winner-takes-all nature of most Republican primaries handed Trump most of the delegates as a result. Democrats saw a similar dynamic playing out with Bernie Sanders in 2020 and cleared the field for Biden after he won South Carolina rather than risk Bernie winning. They understood that the longer Biden was splitting the non-Bernie vote, the greater the risk Bernie might actually win.
That said, that’s what responsible candidates who realize they have no viable path to victory do when they realize their continued presence is doing more harm than good. The GOP field in 2016 wasn’t willing to come to that realization. Will they this time?
I think you hit on the key point. It's not how many candidates are running. It's when they decide to get out of the race. Staying in too long is hugely helpful for Trump as it allows him to win scores of delegates (Republicans allocate winner takes all) with somewhere between 30 and 40% of the overall vote.
I guess the question is what is his floor, and can anyone else get there?
I think his floor is between 25-30%. And I think another candidate can get there. Which is different from whether another candidate WILL get there.
Wow -- that's lower than I thought. Whether he gets the nomination or not, he can sync the GOP nominee in a general ... probably with a write in campaign!
Typo, you wrote "ant-Trump" when you meant "Anti-Trump". Also 'bur' when you meant 'but'
FIXED. TY!
Taken like a true gentleman. :)
Thanks. One Trump is bad enough. We don’t need him escaping into the multiverse.
To borrow a quote from the economist and former chair of the Federal Reserve, could your hypothesis be a function of "...irrational exuberance..."? Optimism run amok? My sense is we have to see if the trend continues for several cycles, and if other polls start showing the same trend. Your CNN point is valid, and the margin of error could also be a factor. And would like to see if the Bret Baier interview on Fox has any impact - not that it was any different from other interviews, however, it was broadcast on FOX...
Nevertheless, I am smiling today at the hope you might be correct - Thank you, and have a wonderful day!
Agree it's too soon to know, for sure. Question is whether more data comes out that affirms the CNN polling....
Trump had two weeks between Jan 6 and Jan 20th to pardon his rioters and he did nothing. They will always remember that. That is why his current crowds to protest, or riot, are so small.
I like CC's analogies. Here is mine on Trump and the Documents Case. A few years ago my wife got pulled over for driving the wrong way on a one way street. She said that she had not seen the sign and apologized to the cop. He said to be more careful in the future and let her off. Now in the same scenario... Trump gets pulled over and says, I did not see the sign so I can keep driving in this direction. So he continues to drive the wrong way on the street, the cop calls other cops and soon there is a cop convoy following him as he drives the wrong way down the street. It ends when the cops blockade the street in front of Trump to stop him, and at that point, he still insists that he has every right to go the wrong way down the street. So now, for some reason, law enforcement is not going to let him off with just a warning. Duh!!! A totally self-inflicted wound for Trump. Maybe if he actually paid his lawyers, he would listen to them?
I read an article that made the point that the national polls do not matter as the popular vote does not matter. The electoral collage, and therefor the swing state votes, are all that matter. Biden has increased his lead in the those states over Trump, so as Trumps popularity is also decreasing, Trumps chance of winning in 2024 is about zero.