Are we ignoring Joe Biden's good polls?

Context!

(Why is Joe Biden smiling?)

I like Simon Rosenberg. He is a friend. I have known him for a very long time. And I’ve always though he was smart about politics.

He proved that in 2022 when he was a lone voice in the political wilderness insisting that — contrary to all of the talk of a “red wave” sweeping the country — the midterm election were going to be good for Democrats.

And he was right.

I am a regular reader of Simon’s Substack — Hopium Chronicles — and follower of his on social media.

Which brings me to a particular hobbyhorse of his: That the media is ignoring good polling for President Joe Biden. To that point, this tweet caught my eye over the weekend:

In a Substack post linked to in the tweet, Simon argued this:

It can no longer be said that Trump leads, or is favored next year. That may have been true a month ago. It is no longer true. Joe Biden has a slight lead now in national polling. Period.

Which got me to thinking: Is he right? Is the governing dynamic of the 2024 race now that Biden is a slight favorite? And, if so, why am I not seeing more reporting and coverage of that fact?

The main polling aggregator out there — compiling ALL (or most) of the national polling done in the hypothetical Biden-Trump race — is Real Clear Politics.

Here’s what the last 11 national surveys — as collected by RCP — look like:

Now. The RCP average is pooh-poohed by lots of polling professionals because it includes basically every poll conducted — regardless of questions about methodology, sample construction and standards. Not all polls are created equal; some are better than others. The RCP average doesn’t acknowledge that fact.

But, just for a minute, ignore the average, which shows Trump leading by almost 2 points. Instead, just look at the individual results. And what you find is this: In 8 of the 11 most recent national polls, Donald Trump is ahead — with margins ranging from 2 to 6 points.

(Sidebar: One of the three polls that shows Biden ahead is Rasmussen Reports, a pollster that Democrats have long insisted favors Republicans.)

That is a fact.

It is also a fact that of the the last three (aka most recent) polls in the RCP average, two show Biden ahead (albeit it by 1 and 2 points).

Which reality do you believe?

In Simon’s reality, something — and he admits he doesn’t know what it is — has changed in recent days in the national political environment. And that change is working in Joe Biden’s favor.

In an alternate reality, Trump is — in the main — still ahead (albeit narrowly), with the two recent results showing Biden ahead more noise than signal.

Which is it?

The truth here is that a) Simon is a partisan Democrat who b) has built his brand (especially over the last few years) on preaching hope and optimism (“Hopium”) to always-nervous Democrats.

His take on recent polling is VERY much in keeping with that brand.

But, that doesn’t mean he is wrong either!

Here’s what I would say: Having worked in two big mainstream media newsrooms, there is no question that they follow a handful of dominant narratives at any point. And that it is hard to knock them off that narrative — barring overwhelming facts.

The dominant narrative in the 2024 race right now is a) Trump is going to walk to the Republican nomination and b) polling over the last 4-6 weeks has shown positive movement for Trump in a matchup against Biden.

The chatter on cable TV is, mostly, focused on Trump winning. The stories major digital/print outlets are producing are focused on what a Trump 2nd term would look like. (This one from the New York Times today is a great read.)

The coverage of Biden — and, again, I am generalizing here — is focused on his “bad” polling numbers, his advanced age and why his economic message isn’t breaking through.

Which drives the White House crazy. And is a major reason why they tout Simon (and other Democrats like him) who are insisting that a) Biden’s poll numbers are better than the media covers b) his age isn’t really a big issue compared to Trump’s lawlessness and c) Biden’s economic message will start breaking through as the election gets closer.

Who’s right? I wish I knew! (It would make writing a political newsletter much easier!)

My general sense is that Trump has moved up in the last two months vis a vis a head to head matchup against Biden. Not a huge move but a move nonetheless.

Which makes me think that, if the election were held today, Trump would be the slightest of favorites to win.

Of course, the election isn’t held today. We have almost a year to go until next November. And polls — no matter how good they are — only measure this moment in time.

On that, I'll give Simon the last word.

“Polls cannot tell you what is going to happen tomorrow, or next year,” he wrote. “They can only tell you where things are now, and where things are now can and will change.”