Perhaps you might consider really beating the drum for everything Biden HAS accomplished. I know that doesn’t sell Wheaties as well as horse race despair, but time to face facts: Trump wouldn’t be nearly as much of an issue had the press treated him appropriately; and Biden would have eclipsed everyone had credit been given where due.
People always look to blame the media. The media didn't create Trump. When reasonable people see coverage of Trump, they are repulsed. You've seen lots of Trump coverage. Did it make you support him? It's a sad fact, but what Trump sells and what he is turns out to appeal to a large swath of our country.
True 'nuff...to an extent. I feel like he has given some oddball form of legitimacy to the fringe/hater types. However, people in general tend to believe what they're told over and over and over...I don't blame the media for Trump's existence, I do hold therm partially responsible for the coverage he gets. From Chris today:
"Donald Trump lies. A lot. Like, more than 30,000 times during his four years in office.
So, when he tells the truth — even unwittingly — it’s sometimes hard to see.
But, there’s one thing Trump said — way back in 2017 — that I a) think about all the time and b) am convinced is the truth.
It’s this quote:
“Newspapers, television, all forms of media will tank if I’m not there because without me, their ratings are going down the tubes.”
The comment was decidedly off hand, part of an “impromptu 30-minute interview with The New York Times at his golf club in West Palm Beach.”
My guess is that Trump put very little thought into it — and probably didn’t think about it again after he said it.
I feel like no one is ignoring anything. It's just that hyper focusing on polls is an absolute trap this far out from the election. Something you have brought up often. News outlets will make whatever story they think will sell out of the polls. I'm personally in the camp that holds many democrats are not thrilled that they aren't getting their exact desired result out of the Biden administration, so they poll grumpy and negative. But next year, when it matters, they will not vote for a blatant threat to democracy. I also believe a lot of folks are tuning out the noise and their polling is a wildcard right now. Next year when it matters, lots of them will run screaming from Trump and his horrifying promises and dictatorial tendencies.
Adding that I really appreciate this article and others like it, though! Your analysis notes trends and ideas that are very helpful to understanding (as much is possible) the state of our political mess right now!
When I wrote my book, "I Will Run Wild," a history of the Pacific War from Pearl Harbor to Midway, a period in most histories that is recorded as "dark" with nothing but bad news for the US and our Allies as the Japanese "ran wild," I used interviews I had done over the years with a number of people who had been in the service then (sadly none still here with us). I had asked each of them how they had dealt with the continuing bad news, how they had held on to the day of victory at Midway. Dick Best (who sank the Japanese carrier Akagi at Midway) said it best: "Since the alternative was unthinkable, we just worked harder."
I think that's good advice today. Going all Aunt Pitty-Pat on these polls a year out from the election (I mean, just look at the events we know are going to happen in this coming year - at least 3 of 4 of Trump's trials and convictions) is a good way to lose our morale and motivation. Without morale and motivation, nothing else will matter. Giving up now in the face of media bullshit by over-educated under-intelligent idiots would be downright embarrassing.
From December 1776 - when Washington crossed the Delaware with 1,000 men, all that was left of the Continental Army after the British successes in that fall, took Trenton Barracks and defeated the Hessians to give the Revolution the breath of life it needed to succeed - to the first two years of the Civil War which were nothing but bad news for the Union until the victory at Gettysburg, to World War II and the bad news of 1942 before the victory at Midway, our ancestors have managed to find a way to put their heads down and get to work regardless, "because the alternative was unthinkable."
Are we going to shame them now with spinelessness? Throw all their effort over the past 240 years in the dustbin of history because "Oh, gee, gas if $5/gallon!" (it isn't)
I strongly believe that not enough attention has been given to the fact that polls have sometimes been grievously wrong in recent elections. According to the polls, Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016 and there was going to be a Republican landslide in 2022. This doesn't mean that Joe Biden doesn't have major challenges to deal with. But we shouldn't be so convinced that he's toast, as so many polls and pundits would have us believe.
Interesting. I often wonder how much media coverage drives people's opinions as opposed to following them, and I don't have any clear sense of the answer, although I do sense that folk seek out the news outlets that conform most closely to their politics. Trump's massive talent is that he knows how to encourage and sustain news coverage of himself and this is continuing. But very recently I've noticed that there are more and more negative assessments of Trump's political positions outside of his supporting news sources. I don't know whether this is causal or correlated with the very recent uptick in Biden's polling but it would be intriguing if it was causal.
I feel as though the messaging has been baked in at this point. Trump is dominating but since he is always so outrageous, spouting all of his demagogy, the media is still not sure how to deal with him. Therefore, it’s the same old same old being reported. Biden is a gentleman, a statesman and is a quiet man, It seems as though the media doesn’t know how to handle Biden either. They would rather keep beating the drum of the faults Biden has. It doesn’t make any sense to me. Is the bottom line that the media would look partisan with reporting Trump is bad and the positive about Biden? Still doesn’t make sense to me.
There has been a manifest surfeit of negative reporting re Trump. The NYT and WaPo wrote many pieces re his tax fraud, Trump U, Jan 6, etc. Most people don’t read or consume legit news. And anything negative Trump voters happen to encounter they disbelief or discount. The problem is an un-educated or misguided public, not the press coverage
True points. I was trying to say that with Trump it is all negative coverage, rightly so. Whereas Biden’s coverage seems to also reported in a negative way, not necessarily rightly so. If media covers Trump all negative and Biden much more positively, as in his accomplishments, would that look partisan and media not wanting to look partisan. Gee, Trump gets all the negative and of course, Biden positive coverage. Either way, it all is a cluster.
It's not going to matter, and it is why people do not care. What we are seeing is mass apathy. The election next year is essentially a referendum on whether we want to establish the US as a Christian nation. No, sorry, I meant KEEP the US a Christian nation, as we have always been. Wait. Are we a Christian nation? No, the reality is we are not. But this is what November 2024 is all about
If you’re digging my vibe on this, you probably understand why I'm concerned about Mike Johnson.
Polls are going to continue to bounce up and down for Biden and probably for Trump as well. For Biden, one of the reasons why his polls dipped a little [if you believe these polls] is because of the war in the Middle East which some progressives and the young voters don't like the position Biden has taken. However , these group of voters will definitely come back home to deliver for Biden in 2024. They are not going to vote for Trump. Also, for those who believe in these polls, don't forget that they come with ''MARGINS OF ERROR' 'and if you look at most of the more credible polls, Trump's so called lead fall within the margin of error. I will suggest that people read and interpret these polls in the context of their margins of error and not in a vacuum.
And yes, The NYT today chronicled the potential danger Trump poses to American Democracy and World order, The Atlantic magazine's Anne Applebaum today also crystalized the threats Trump poses to the country and World peace by Trump. These are some of the reasons why I am confident that Biden will win in 2024; the fundamentals of the economy are very sound, look at the unemployment rate, Gas prices and inflation all trending south. Stock market is up, GDP is up beating expectations and I can go on and on.
The other good radiances for Biden are Abortion and Donald Trump's threats to Democracy. You Watch people, Biden is going to win in 2024!
I still have no reason to trust polls. I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t know and I just got an email from something that claimed to be Quinnipiac but I’m pretty sure wasn’t. Unless I can see methodology and cross tabs, I have no basis at this point to believe anything we are seeing represents a likely voter population accurately. That said, it seems to me we all do the cause of democracy much better if we talk about the positive things that are happening and obsess less in public about bouncing and probably not-so-reliable polls!
The media, tv, newspapers, online outlets have so much control on how we view the political landscape. It feels that when more liberal outlets present information on the dangers of Trump, it creates a great deal of worry, concern and fear about what a second Trump term looks like for the future of America. I find that it provides motivation to vote. If I hear news that Biden is doing well in the polls or other positive news from the media, it may create apathy when, let’s face it, as a country we can’t afford to be complacent. But whatever the media’s messaging is, the one thing that they care about is ratings. Often, I feel that the negative Trump news keeps me tuned in and coming back for more. With more positive news, I may be less engaged.
Perhaps you might consider really beating the drum for everything Biden HAS accomplished. I know that doesn’t sell Wheaties as well as horse race despair, but time to face facts: Trump wouldn’t be nearly as much of an issue had the press treated him appropriately; and Biden would have eclipsed everyone had credit been given where due.
People always look to blame the media. The media didn't create Trump. When reasonable people see coverage of Trump, they are repulsed. You've seen lots of Trump coverage. Did it make you support him? It's a sad fact, but what Trump sells and what he is turns out to appeal to a large swath of our country.
True 'nuff...to an extent. I feel like he has given some oddball form of legitimacy to the fringe/hater types. However, people in general tend to believe what they're told over and over and over...I don't blame the media for Trump's existence, I do hold therm partially responsible for the coverage he gets. From Chris today:
"Donald Trump lies. A lot. Like, more than 30,000 times during his four years in office.
So, when he tells the truth — even unwittingly — it’s sometimes hard to see.
But, there’s one thing Trump said — way back in 2017 — that I a) think about all the time and b) am convinced is the truth.
It’s this quote:
“Newspapers, television, all forms of media will tank if I’m not there because without me, their ratings are going down the tubes.”
The comment was decidedly off hand, part of an “impromptu 30-minute interview with The New York Times at his golf club in West Palm Beach.”
My guess is that Trump put very little thought into it — and probably didn’t think about it again after he said it.
But, damned if he isn’t right.
Most Americans don’t put a lot of faith in polls since 2016, and pollsters haven’t done much to restore that faith. Red wave, yeah sure.
I feel like no one is ignoring anything. It's just that hyper focusing on polls is an absolute trap this far out from the election. Something you have brought up often. News outlets will make whatever story they think will sell out of the polls. I'm personally in the camp that holds many democrats are not thrilled that they aren't getting their exact desired result out of the Biden administration, so they poll grumpy and negative. But next year, when it matters, they will not vote for a blatant threat to democracy. I also believe a lot of folks are tuning out the noise and their polling is a wildcard right now. Next year when it matters, lots of them will run screaming from Trump and his horrifying promises and dictatorial tendencies.
Adding that I really appreciate this article and others like it, though! Your analysis notes trends and ideas that are very helpful to understanding (as much is possible) the state of our political mess right now!
When I wrote my book, "I Will Run Wild," a history of the Pacific War from Pearl Harbor to Midway, a period in most histories that is recorded as "dark" with nothing but bad news for the US and our Allies as the Japanese "ran wild," I used interviews I had done over the years with a number of people who had been in the service then (sadly none still here with us). I had asked each of them how they had dealt with the continuing bad news, how they had held on to the day of victory at Midway. Dick Best (who sank the Japanese carrier Akagi at Midway) said it best: "Since the alternative was unthinkable, we just worked harder."
I think that's good advice today. Going all Aunt Pitty-Pat on these polls a year out from the election (I mean, just look at the events we know are going to happen in this coming year - at least 3 of 4 of Trump's trials and convictions) is a good way to lose our morale and motivation. Without morale and motivation, nothing else will matter. Giving up now in the face of media bullshit by over-educated under-intelligent idiots would be downright embarrassing.
From December 1776 - when Washington crossed the Delaware with 1,000 men, all that was left of the Continental Army after the British successes in that fall, took Trenton Barracks and defeated the Hessians to give the Revolution the breath of life it needed to succeed - to the first two years of the Civil War which were nothing but bad news for the Union until the victory at Gettysburg, to World War II and the bad news of 1942 before the victory at Midway, our ancestors have managed to find a way to put their heads down and get to work regardless, "because the alternative was unthinkable."
Are we going to shame them now with spinelessness? Throw all their effort over the past 240 years in the dustbin of history because "Oh, gee, gas if $5/gallon!" (it isn't)
I strongly believe that not enough attention has been given to the fact that polls have sometimes been grievously wrong in recent elections. According to the polls, Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016 and there was going to be a Republican landslide in 2022. This doesn't mean that Joe Biden doesn't have major challenges to deal with. But we shouldn't be so convinced that he's toast, as so many polls and pundits would have us believe.
Interesting. I often wonder how much media coverage drives people's opinions as opposed to following them, and I don't have any clear sense of the answer, although I do sense that folk seek out the news outlets that conform most closely to their politics. Trump's massive talent is that he knows how to encourage and sustain news coverage of himself and this is continuing. But very recently I've noticed that there are more and more negative assessments of Trump's political positions outside of his supporting news sources. I don't know whether this is causal or correlated with the very recent uptick in Biden's polling but it would be intriguing if it was causal.
I feel as though the messaging has been baked in at this point. Trump is dominating but since he is always so outrageous, spouting all of his demagogy, the media is still not sure how to deal with him. Therefore, it’s the same old same old being reported. Biden is a gentleman, a statesman and is a quiet man, It seems as though the media doesn’t know how to handle Biden either. They would rather keep beating the drum of the faults Biden has. It doesn’t make any sense to me. Is the bottom line that the media would look partisan with reporting Trump is bad and the positive about Biden? Still doesn’t make sense to me.
There has been a manifest surfeit of negative reporting re Trump. The NYT and WaPo wrote many pieces re his tax fraud, Trump U, Jan 6, etc. Most people don’t read or consume legit news. And anything negative Trump voters happen to encounter they disbelief or discount. The problem is an un-educated or misguided public, not the press coverage
True points. I was trying to say that with Trump it is all negative coverage, rightly so. Whereas Biden’s coverage seems to also reported in a negative way, not necessarily rightly so. If media covers Trump all negative and Biden much more positively, as in his accomplishments, would that look partisan and media not wanting to look partisan. Gee, Trump gets all the negative and of course, Biden positive coverage. Either way, it all is a cluster.
It's not going to matter, and it is why people do not care. What we are seeing is mass apathy. The election next year is essentially a referendum on whether we want to establish the US as a Christian nation. No, sorry, I meant KEEP the US a Christian nation, as we have always been. Wait. Are we a Christian nation? No, the reality is we are not. But this is what November 2024 is all about
If you’re digging my vibe on this, you probably understand why I'm concerned about Mike Johnson.
Polls are going to continue to bounce up and down for Biden and probably for Trump as well. For Biden, one of the reasons why his polls dipped a little [if you believe these polls] is because of the war in the Middle East which some progressives and the young voters don't like the position Biden has taken. However , these group of voters will definitely come back home to deliver for Biden in 2024. They are not going to vote for Trump. Also, for those who believe in these polls, don't forget that they come with ''MARGINS OF ERROR' 'and if you look at most of the more credible polls, Trump's so called lead fall within the margin of error. I will suggest that people read and interpret these polls in the context of their margins of error and not in a vacuum.
And yes, The NYT today chronicled the potential danger Trump poses to American Democracy and World order, The Atlantic magazine's Anne Applebaum today also crystalized the threats Trump poses to the country and World peace by Trump. These are some of the reasons why I am confident that Biden will win in 2024; the fundamentals of the economy are very sound, look at the unemployment rate, Gas prices and inflation all trending south. Stock market is up, GDP is up beating expectations and I can go on and on.
The other good radiances for Biden are Abortion and Donald Trump's threats to Democracy. You Watch people, Biden is going to win in 2024!
For the sake of this country’s democracy, I hope that this is a long lasting trend.
I still have no reason to trust polls. I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t know and I just got an email from something that claimed to be Quinnipiac but I’m pretty sure wasn’t. Unless I can see methodology and cross tabs, I have no basis at this point to believe anything we are seeing represents a likely voter population accurately. That said, it seems to me we all do the cause of democracy much better if we talk about the positive things that are happening and obsess less in public about bouncing and probably not-so-reliable polls!
The media, tv, newspapers, online outlets have so much control on how we view the political landscape. It feels that when more liberal outlets present information on the dangers of Trump, it creates a great deal of worry, concern and fear about what a second Trump term looks like for the future of America. I find that it provides motivation to vote. If I hear news that Biden is doing well in the polls or other positive news from the media, it may create apathy when, let’s face it, as a country we can’t afford to be complacent. But whatever the media’s messaging is, the one thing that they care about is ratings. Often, I feel that the negative Trump news keeps me tuned in and coming back for more. With more positive news, I may be less engaged.