CHRIS CRUCIAL: 7 big thoughts on the Biden crisis

What a week.

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Normally on summer Fridays, I do a politics trivia quiz. It’s a fun way to head into the weekend!

But this is not a normal summer Friday. Democrats are in the midst of trying to figure out if Joe Biden can continue in the race for president after the single worst presidential debate performance in modern history.

I am still sort of shocked about what happened. But I wanted to distill my thoughts for you going into the weekend. Here they are.

1. The fact that Joe Biden was good at a rally today in North Carolina changes (almost) nothing

Look, I get that Democrats are scrambling for some — any! — good news. And, yes, Biden was much more lively in North Carolina on Friday than he was on the debate stage in Atlanta on Thursday night! But, 40+million people saw the latter event and, what, a few thousand the former one? And the media coverage is entirely (or almost entirely) focused on the debate, not a rally after the debate.

I thought The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta said it well here:

This all reminds me of a kid I used to play basketball with. He was amazing in practice. Made all his shots. Played great D. But, he could never re-create that performance in games. And the games are what matter. Whether you like it or not.

2. The 2012 debate comparison is misguided

Former President Barack Obama tried to calm the nerves of Democrats Friday afternoon with this tweet:

Obama is trying to do damage control for Biden by noting that he, too, had a bad first debate. And he did! In 2012, Obama was beaten in the first debate by Mitt Romney. Obama looked rusty in that debate. He looked like he wasn’t used to being criticized. He was ornery. And a little arrogant.

But Obama never struggled to express himself in that debate. He never was unable to finish sentences. Biden was both of those things. And, unlike Obama, Biden went into that debate with a majority of the public already believing he was too old to be president!

A bad debate is one thing. What we saw last night was much more (and worse) than that.

3. This isn’t a “style” thing

Vice President Kamala Harris, in a tweet Friday afternoon, tried to dismiss Biden’s performance as simply an issue of “style.”

But what we saw last night isn’t about Biden’s “style.” It’s about his ability to do the job of president for another four years. If Biden simply spoke slowly, then that is a style thing. But that’s not what happened. He seemed lost in his thoughts at times. He seemed to just blurt out random things to fill silences. That’s not style. That’s competence.

4. Let’s see what the polls say

I’ve made clear how I think the debate went. But, it’s just my opinion! And we live in a super-polarized political environment where peoples’ minds were mostly made up before last night.

Given that, I think it’s possible that Biden doesn’t slip in the polls as much as some people might think. (It’s hard for me to imagine he gains ground in post-debate polling though.)

And if the slippage is minor, maybe the Democratic panic wears off?

5. Watch the Sunday shows

Every TV booker in the country is trying to land Democratic senators and governors this weekend to see what they will say about whether Biden should consider dropping out of the race.

To date, Biden and his team have done a good job of keeping the major players in the party — Obama, Jim Clyburn etc. — on his team. But, if there is even ONE crack, it will spider outward. One will quickly turn into many — I think. And if someone wanted to make a move on Biden, the Sunday show circuit would be the place to do it.

Who might make that move? It makes a certain amount of sense for a Democratic senator in a red state — like, say, Jon Tester — to find a way to publicly break with Biden before he drags him down. But, I wouldn’t count on it. Signing a sitting president’s political obituary is a VERY tough thing to do.

6. The summer is here

One of the reasons that the Biden team pushed for such an early debate — they are usually in the fall — was because they didn’t want the age thing to linger all the way through Labor Day. They wanted to leave voters, who check out even more than usual during July and August, with a positive impression of Biden.

Unfortunately for them, the opposite is what is going to happen. The campaign is going to go into summer hibernation soon. And the lasting memory for most people will be Biden’s horrendous debate performance.

When people come back to paying attention to politics after Labor Day, Biden will have just two months to change their mind about him.

7. Donors, donors, donors

I do not believe Joe or Jill Biden believe that Joe Biden should get out of the race. Which, probably, is the only thing that matters.

But, I DO think it’s worth watching to see whether there is any public wariness among major Biden donors about his prospects. Does someone who hosted a big event for Biden go public and say something like “I love the guy but I don’t think he can stay in the race?”

Remember that unlike politicians, major donors don’t have as much to lose by going public with honest views. They are already very wealthy. They don’t necessarily need anything from Biden and, therefore, are less likely to fear retribution. Just something to think about.

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