CHRIS CRUCIAL: A GOP disaster in North Carolina

PLUS: Nebraska may change its electoral rules!

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1. Mark Robinson [slaps head]

I’ve noted in this space before that Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor of North Carolina, may well be the most extreme gubernatorial nominee ever chosen by Republicans.

Which brings me to this story from CNN today:

 Mark Robinson, the controversial and socially conservative Republican nominee for governor of North Carolina, made a series of inflammatory comments on a pornography website’s message board more than a decade ago, in which he referred to himself as a “black NAZI!” and expressed support for reinstating slavery, a CNN KFile investigation found.

Despite a recent history of anti-transgender rhetoric, Robinson said he enjoyed watching transgender pornography, a review of archived messages found in which he also referred to himself as a “perv.”

The comments, which Robinson denies making, predate his entry into politics and current stint as North Carolina’s lieutenant governor. They were made under a username that CNN was able to identify as Robinson by matching a litany of biographical details and a shared email address between the two.

Whoa boy. WHOA BOY.

But, wait: There’s more.

Soon after the CNN story hit, Politico published its own piece that revealed that Robinson’s email was registered on Ashley Madison, a service for married people seeking to have affairs.

Even before this news avalanche, rumors of the reporting were already roiling the governor’s race — where Robinson is taking on Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein.

Here’s the Carolina Journal:

Sources with direct knowledge have spoken with Carolina Journal on the condition of anonymity and said that Robinson is under pressure from staff and members of the Trump campaign to withdraw from the governor’s race due to the nature of the story, which they say involves activity on adult websites in 2000s.

According to sources, Robinson has resisted withdrawing and privately denies the story.

The timing is wild. Thursday night — yes, TONIGHT — is the deadline for a candidate to withdraw from the race. While Robinson’s name would still appear on the ballot if he withdrew by tonight, Republicans could replace him — meaning that a vote for Robinson would amount to a vote for the replacement nominee.

Of course, it’s not clear that Robinson will leave the race within the next few hours. He is showing no signs of doing so. If he doesn’t, the race is almost certainly lost for Republicans. In the immediate aftermath of the CNN story, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating on the race:

Even if Robinson drops out, the fact that his name will still be on the ballot makes it very, very difficult for the GOP to win the race — or come close.

What’s more interesting than whether Republicans can win the governorship is how this latest Robinson scandal impacts (if at all) the presidential race in a swing state.

While Carolina Journal reports that the Trump campaign has, of late, kept its distance from Robinson, he did speak at the Republican National Convention in July.

And Trump, who endorsed Robinson in the Republican primary, said in March that the lieutenant governor was “Martin Luther King on steroids.”

You can bet Kamala Harris’ campaign in the state will make sure voters are aware of that Robinson-Trump connection. And, if Republicans collapse in the governor’s race, it’s hard to see it not having some impact on the presidential contest.

2. An electoral college rule change?

Nebraska, as electoral college junkies know, is one of two states that doesn’t allocate its electoral votes based solely on who wins statewide. (Maine is the other.)

That may change — if national Republicans and Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen get their way.

At issue is this: Currently, the winner of the Nebraska statewide vote gets 2 electoral votes. The winner of each of Nebraska’s three congressional districts gets 1 electoral vote for each district.

In 2020, Joe Biden won the Omaha-based 2nd district — and its electoral vote. Ditto Barack Obama in 2008.

Republicans want to ensure that does not happen this November — especially considering that both parties expect the race to 270 electoral votes to be extremely close.

To that end, the GOP is in the midst of a massive persuasion campaign aimed at convincing 33 state Senators to block a likely filibuster if an attempt to change the state to winner-take-all status.

Republicans currently control 33 of the 49 seats but at least one member, who switched party affiliation from Democrat to Republican earlier this year, had pledged previously not to support the electoral vote change.

Earlier this week, the five-person Nebraska congressional delegation — all Republicans — released a letter urging the change. “It’s time to return Nebraska to winner-take-all,” Rep. Mike Flood wrote on X. (Nebraska was a winner-take-all state until 1992.)

Also this week, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump loyalist, traveled to Nebraska to meet with state legislators to push the rule change.

Pillen, the governor, has said he will not call a special session to address the issue unless there are 33 senators on the record committed to breaking the promised filibuster.

3. Some very good Senate polling for Democrats

Morning Consult released a slew of Senate polling on Thursday, the vast majority of which contained very good news for Democrats.

Here’s a rundown:

Now, you should notice a few things here.

First, neither the West Virginia race nor the Montana race, the two most difficult holds for Democrats, is included among these polls. West Virginia appears to be a sure-thing takeover for Republicans while Montana is moving that way.

Second, the chances of Republicans gaining 3+ seats in this election look slim — if this polling winds up being accurate. Democratic seats in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all look likely to stay with the party.

Finally, the Texas number will raise eyebrows — with Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in a dead heat with GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. It will put even more pressure on national Democrats to invest in that race — something they have been resistant to do so far.

Remember that Democrats currently have a one-seat majority. Meaning that if they lose only the West Virginia and Montana seats — and win no GOP seats — they will be in the minority.

Decision Desk HQ’s Senate model gives Republicans a 70% chance of winning the majority this fall.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Vote like your life depends on it — because it does.”— Billie Eilish, endorsing Kamala Harris for president

ONE GOOD CHART

The last time Americans had a favorable opinion about both presidential candidates at this point in an election was 16 years ago! (Chart via Gallup)

SONG OF THE DAY

Jeff Tweedy, the lead singer of Wilco, has a terrific Substack called

Jeff Tweedy | Starship Casual

. He announced today that he is doing a backstage livestream Saturday night on it — which I am PSYCHED for. In the meantime, watch this live performance he did on KEXP radio.

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