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PLUS: The election models flip to Trump!

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1. Pluribus News

Today in my Georgetown class — I am teaching campaign journalism to undergraduates, in case you didn’t know — I had Reid Wilson come to speak.

I have known Reid for years. He edited The Hotline. He and I worked together for a time at the Washington Post. And, two years ago, he set off on his own to start a media company aimed at covering all 50 state legislatures.

It’s called Pluribus News. And here’s how Reid describes it:

Pluribus News is a groundbreaking new digital media outlet offering the most comprehensive coverage of state-level public policy in America. At a time of partisan gridlock in Washington, D.C., state legislatures are increasingly driving policy fights long before they reach Congress. What happens in Sacramento or Austin or Albany today will come to 25 other states next year, and to Congress the year after that. Pluribus News connects the puzzle pieces shaping today’s policy decisions – and tomorrow’s national conversation.

It is, quite frankly, a GREAT idea — and one I wish I had come up with first. Because, the truth of the matter is that with Congress unable to do, well, much of anything, the states are free to serve as policy incubators for fights that will eventually end up in Congress and before the nation.

Bathroom bills. Abortion limits. Privacy. AI. It’s all being handled by the states these days.

State legislatures — and state legislators — are filling the ideas void created by our sclerotic Congress. What they are talking about — and writing bills on — today is the stuff that will bubble up into the national conversation come 2025 and 2026. (Reid’s hot issue? Nuclear energy. Or “the nuclear” as Donald Trump refers to it.)

And here’s the thing: Even as there are hundreds of reporters covering the presidential race, there are almost NONE covering what is going on in these state legislatures. If you think the national media business is bad, the local media business has been absolutely decimated.

Local news sites have either gone out of business or shrunk staffs to a skeleton level. Which means less coverage of what is happening in state legislatures. And less scrutiny on what state legislators are doing — and why.

The lede of this 2023 AP story is devastating:

The decline of local news in the United States is speeding up despite attention paid to the issue, to the point where the nation has lost one-third of its newspapers and two-thirds of its newspaper journalists since 2005.

An average of 2.5 newspapers closed each week in 2023 compared to two a week the previous year, a reflection of an ever-worsening advertising climate, according to a Northwestern University study issued Thursday. Most are weekly publications, in areas with few or no other sources for news.

That’s why we need sites like Reid’s now more than EVER. Bookmark it. Sign up for Reid’s daily newsletter. Support it. Trust me.

2. Election Models Flip to Trump

Two prominent election modelers now see Donald Trump as slightly — emphasis on slightly — more likely to win the presidency than Kamala Harris.

Here’s the 538 model, which shows Trump winning 52 times out of a 100:

And here’s

Nate Silver

’s model:

Decision Desk HQ, a personal favorite of mine, has the probabilities of each candidate winning as dead even. Literally.

What to make of it all? I think Trump’s chances have improved in the last two weeks. Not markedly but some. If the election were today and I HAD to bet on it, I would favor him by a scintilla. Or a skosh. Or a smidgen.

3. Friday AMA

If you aren’t checking out my weekly Friday livestream on my YouTube channel, what are you doing with your life????

Never fear if you missed it. You can watch it here:

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“There ought to be a price to pay when you don’t tell the truth.” — Former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace on his old network’s defamation payout (Wallace works for CNN now.)

ONE GOOD CHART

Who are the 4% of people who think their taxes are too low? 😂😂😂

SONG OF THE DAY

The four-song Bon Iver EP — “Sable” — is out today. I already love it. This is “THINGS BEHIND THINGS BEHIND THINGS.”

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