I will go to my grave not understanding how a convicted felon, held liable for sexual assault and fraud, who is obviously in mental decline, and whose ignorance and cruelty are on display every day, can be this close to winning.
Correct. I'm so anxious. I'll be out of the country starting next Friday and not returning until 11/10. My vote has already been cast for Harris. But I'm wondering.....1. Will I have a country to come home to when I return to the US if the Orange Traitor wins? And 2. And if he wins, should I just hang around in the US until my rental obligations expire in June and then leave the country for good? I don't understand how either of those scenarios are even coming into play after so much that has happened under that con, crook and traitor over the past seven years. SEVENA YEARS!!! And we're still dealing with this clown? Kamala was definitely talking about me when she recently said that Americans are "exhausted' by Trump. I'm actually beyond exhausted. To think I would want to leave my country because of this POS. A country that my family members proudly served and fought for in two different wars. Unreal!!!
The mainstream press have done a terrible job covering Trump. I saw an NBC interview this morning on Today where Peter Alexander was hammering Harris about why she wasn’t distancing herself from Biden.
In an effort to be balanced, they’ve gone way overboard on Harris and given Trump a pass.
Why aren’t the media lambasting Trump for skipping out on all interviews that could be difficult for him. They were relentless on Harris for supposedly ducking the media.
They are basically handing Trump the election. They, including CC, need to say his silence makes him unqualified for the job. It’s time to stop the double standard.
It has to do with his opponent being all-in on the crime against humanity of cutting up the genitals of little kids on the basis of pure medical quackery.
I am one of those people who feels my taxes are too low. I think if my grandchildren are going to have a chance at a decent life in the America of the future, my generation, which has enjoyed so much abundance, needs to step up to the plate.
I'm in the 4% who believes my taxes are too low. At my advanced age I, as a citizen of the USA, have benefitted, or "authorized" through elections, the spending that has led to the large deficit. As a citizen, taxpayer and investor in America-based companies I have accumulated a reasonable amount of wealth. The nation in which I live (and from which I have benefitted) should have me pay more to balance the budget and reduce the debt. My wife & I choose to live modestly. We have very adequate income amounts to help support our church and charities. And we can pay more taxes. But it won't happen because the politicians in both parties are afraid of the political pain that might come from balancing the federal budget.
Who's going to vote for Trump? Women? Young people? College educated Urbana? Latinos? There are a lot but not enough low info suburban and rural white guys to swing the election. There is GOP skewness in the polls so to build Trump's narrative that the Election was Stolen after he does in fact lose "bigly".
Well that's just it! There is that 47% or whatever it is that will vote for Trump, but it won't go higher or lower than that. It's the others who will decide this race; if they stay home or vote third party, Trump will win.
IF our Country has any common sense and decency, we should see some movement in the polls toward Harris and away from Trump as she continues her extensive interview schedule and he continues to melt down in public. ( But that’s a big “if.”)
I feel exactly the same way. And as horrible a human being as he is, I think it’s way more disheartening how he has so many people who will stand by him no matter what he says or does. Without them, he’s not in this position. Without them, he has no power. It’s those people, the ones with the MAGA hats, and the ones who try to hide in the shadows, who have put our country in this position.
Will the election be relatively close? Sure. Just like in 2020. However Harris will prevail. Abortion will be the deciding factor in this election. Look at the elections/special elections since The dobbs ruling. The democrats have won big. Look at the elections in Pa in 2022. Fetterman and Shapiro both won by over 5%. When the polls showed Fetterman/Oz senate race as a toss up. Remember 2022 was supposed to be the “red wave”. All the polls showed it. It never materialized. Biden won Pa by 80 thousand votes (which is close). However you’re telling me that 80,000 people have had a change of heart and will vote for Trump? I just don’t see it. Maybe I am delusional, time will tell.
The Stock Market has predicted the Presidency more than 70% of the time and is predicting a Harris win and Prof Allan Lichtman has also successful successfully predicted the Elections 90% of the time. He has also categorically predicted a Harris win. I know the MAGA cult members don't want to believe Prof Allan Lichtman because his prediction is not favorable to their cult old and exhausted leader in Trump.
I believe in Lichtman more than 538. And Lichtman is not the only one out there predicting a Harris win based on the fundamentals and not the polls. I don't have the names in front of me, but I have not found any "fundamentalist" who thinks Trump will win.
No need to get excited because the models show a tied race now. The Brains behind the Models say as much. The race is tied I wonder why Chris is telling us this now that the Cult leader has managed to tie with Harris. I call the MAGA crowds excitement about these models IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE. I wonder where they were when Harris was consistently leading the old and exhausted cult leader in these models for months. Give me a break!
You need to listen to Michael Stele's podcast with Mike Madrid https://www.thebulwark.com/p/how-latino-voters-are-transforming. Madrid makes the case about midway through that the, wait for it, the polls are wrong and that Harris is actually winning by a decent margin. He has a lot of evidence that he says points to this conclusion as the pollsters are calling data "outliers" when, in fact, the data is valid but wrongly being ignored.
I am not worried because we will see a surprise in November (not October). First, Trump is a threat to national security, leaving the election aside. Second, Trump (with help) will attempt to overthrow the election. Third, it seems inevitable that the US Military will be needed at some point, because some people are certainly going to get violent over this.
I happen to believe that, using this lens for perspective, Joe Biden will act to eliminate this threat to our national security. Timing is the only questionable matter, but Biden will act because it is his responsibility to do so. It is his job, and it becomes much easier to carry out responsibly when the principal character is not your political opponent.
I am baffled by how people think Trump will ever again assume the Presidency, unless he has more allies in the military than I'm aware of. The real question becomes whether Biden will hand over the military for Trump to use, or not. I contend that Biden will not give up this control to an individual who is an active threat to national security.
Put another way - if violence at some scale is inevitable, which do you prefer? Having Trump use the military against ”radical left lunatics”? Or Biden to neutralize a security threat, and the resulting extremist terrorism? Either the military goes into cities to take care of nebulous leftist threats and ”ANTIFA” or they can be used to disarm terrorist groups like Proud Boys or Oathkeepers. Take your pick, because it is one or the other.
It’s extremely fascinating to me how Trump is running at least 3-4 points ahead of most of the GOP senate candidates. Ted Cruz is up by +3, Trump is up 6. Nevada Trump is tied against Harris, Rosen is +5. Nebraska, Wisconsin Trump is way ahead of the senate candidates. Perhaps, Trump is just his own unique candidate that provides coattails to a struggling Republican Party. Once Trump is out of politics, I think Democrats go back to dominating the Rust belt and winning most elections
Dude — the 4% of people who think their taxes are too low are the rich people (plus a few who didn’t understand the question). Plenty of well off people think they have done well in this country, and they wouldn’t be angry paying a little more. They do exist. Not enough of them, but enough to register as a significant part of that poll.
Some of the 4% who see their taxes as too low are probably investors who make money with carried interest which is taxed at a lower rate than wage income. The marginal tax rates charged on that proverbial CEO stock options vs the secretary’s weekly check. Warren Buffet has made this point repeatedly.
Also This is why I don’t believe the polls. So before you criticize the nay-sayers, look at past data. There’s a good reason to be skeptical about what media tells us.
To believe that Trump is winning is a terrible indictment of Americans, don’t you think? Supporting his appalling behavior? Polls are meaningless really. Particularly in the margin of error. Harris could be up by 4 points and the polls would still be accurate. lol. I just dont believe them. I don’t believe what the media says either.
You’re one of the main reasons I love being part of this Substack. When people post on here I already know they are like me, very politically engaged. I’m not arguing with my super liberal aunt or super conservative uncle. People have extremely valid points that constantly make me reassess my own strongly held beliefs. Big fan.
As to your question (sorry for the rambling) I don’t really know what the current state of play says about America. Is it that people love Trump? Hate Kamala? Is it more indicative of the democrats rolling out an unelected weak candidate or is it truly that Trump’s fan are a cult? I don’t know, if I did I would make millions pontificating on the cable news shows. Are the polls accurate or off? The distrust of the media is appalling on both sides. Basically, I have no clue. Like many on this Substack. It makes me worry for the future of our nation that we are so polarized that we can’t even agree on anything. I do believe that both candidates are divisive and our country would be much better served if JD Vance was running against Tim Walz. Two guys that have genuine policy agreements, but seem to understand the country has more in common than they don’t. I’m growing tired of this presidential cycle already and we still have a few weeks (God willing only a few weeks) left.
I will go to my grave not understanding how a convicted felon, held liable for sexual assault and fraud, who is obviously in mental decline, and whose ignorance and cruelty are on display every day, can be this close to winning.
You're not the only wondering 🤔
Correct. I'm so anxious. I'll be out of the country starting next Friday and not returning until 11/10. My vote has already been cast for Harris. But I'm wondering.....1. Will I have a country to come home to when I return to the US if the Orange Traitor wins? And 2. And if he wins, should I just hang around in the US until my rental obligations expire in June and then leave the country for good? I don't understand how either of those scenarios are even coming into play after so much that has happened under that con, crook and traitor over the past seven years. SEVENA YEARS!!! And we're still dealing with this clown? Kamala was definitely talking about me when she recently said that Americans are "exhausted' by Trump. I'm actually beyond exhausted. To think I would want to leave my country because of this POS. A country that my family members proudly served and fought for in two different wars. Unreal!!!
The mainstream press have done a terrible job covering Trump. I saw an NBC interview this morning on Today where Peter Alexander was hammering Harris about why she wasn’t distancing herself from Biden.
In an effort to be balanced, they’ve gone way overboard on Harris and given Trump a pass.
Why aren’t the media lambasting Trump for skipping out on all interviews that could be difficult for him. They were relentless on Harris for supposedly ducking the media.
They are basically handing Trump the election. They, including CC, need to say his silence makes him unqualified for the job. It’s time to stop the double standard.
It has to do with his opponent being all-in on the crime against humanity of cutting up the genitals of little kids on the basis of pure medical quackery.
This is only happening in the fevered imaginations of the cult, not out here in reality.
Can you say “ignorant?”
Ditto. And if he wins, my grave may be sooner than I think. This is crazy!
Maybe consider who the opponent is.
That doesn’t explain why he was selected as the GOP nominee. That says more about the Republicans in this country than it does about trump.
I am one of those people who feels my taxes are too low. I think if my grandchildren are going to have a chance at a decent life in the America of the future, my generation, which has enjoyed so much abundance, needs to step up to the plate.
"Who are the 4% of people who think their taxes are too low? 😂😂😂"
There are probably a few people who understand that if you're worried about the deficit, you have to raise revenue somehow.
I'm in the 4% who believes my taxes are too low. At my advanced age I, as a citizen of the USA, have benefitted, or "authorized" through elections, the spending that has led to the large deficit. As a citizen, taxpayer and investor in America-based companies I have accumulated a reasonable amount of wealth. The nation in which I live (and from which I have benefitted) should have me pay more to balance the budget and reduce the debt. My wife & I choose to live modestly. We have very adequate income amounts to help support our church and charities. And we can pay more taxes. But it won't happen because the politicians in both parties are afraid of the political pain that might come from balancing the federal budget.
Yep. My taxes are way too low.
Who's going to vote for Trump? Women? Young people? College educated Urbana? Latinos? There are a lot but not enough low info suburban and rural white guys to swing the election. There is GOP skewness in the polls so to build Trump's narrative that the Election was Stolen after he does in fact lose "bigly".
oh, please, may it be so.
Well that's just it! There is that 47% or whatever it is that will vote for Trump, but it won't go higher or lower than that. It's the others who will decide this race; if they stay home or vote third party, Trump will win.
Unskew the polls! It worked so well for Romney in 2012 …
IF our Country has any common sense and decency, we should see some movement in the polls toward Harris and away from Trump as she continues her extensive interview schedule and he continues to melt down in public. ( But that’s a big “if.”)
I feel exactly the same way. And as horrible a human being as he is, I think it’s way more disheartening how he has so many people who will stand by him no matter what he says or does. Without them, he’s not in this position. Without them, he has no power. It’s those people, the ones with the MAGA hats, and the ones who try to hide in the shadows, who have put our country in this position.
Will the election be relatively close? Sure. Just like in 2020. However Harris will prevail. Abortion will be the deciding factor in this election. Look at the elections/special elections since The dobbs ruling. The democrats have won big. Look at the elections in Pa in 2022. Fetterman and Shapiro both won by over 5%. When the polls showed Fetterman/Oz senate race as a toss up. Remember 2022 was supposed to be the “red wave”. All the polls showed it. It never materialized. Biden won Pa by 80 thousand votes (which is close). However you’re telling me that 80,000 people have had a change of heart and will vote for Trump? I just don’t see it. Maybe I am delusional, time will tell.
The Stock Market has predicted the Presidency more than 70% of the time and is predicting a Harris win and Prof Allan Lichtman has also successful successfully predicted the Elections 90% of the time. He has also categorically predicted a Harris win. I know the MAGA cult members don't want to believe Prof Allan Lichtman because his prediction is not favorable to their cult old and exhausted leader in Trump.
I believe in Lichtman more than 538. And Lichtman is not the only one out there predicting a Harris win based on the fundamentals and not the polls. I don't have the names in front of me, but I have not found any "fundamentalist" who thinks Trump will win.
All of this is very worrisome.
No need to get excited because the models show a tied race now. The Brains behind the Models say as much. The race is tied I wonder why Chris is telling us this now that the Cult leader has managed to tie with Harris. I call the MAGA crowds excitement about these models IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE. I wonder where they were when Harris was consistently leading the old and exhausted cult leader in these models for months. Give me a break!
You need to listen to Michael Stele's podcast with Mike Madrid https://www.thebulwark.com/p/how-latino-voters-are-transforming. Madrid makes the case about midway through that the, wait for it, the polls are wrong and that Harris is actually winning by a decent margin. He has a lot of evidence that he says points to this conclusion as the pollsters are calling data "outliers" when, in fact, the data is valid but wrongly being ignored.
I am not worried because we will see a surprise in November (not October). First, Trump is a threat to national security, leaving the election aside. Second, Trump (with help) will attempt to overthrow the election. Third, it seems inevitable that the US Military will be needed at some point, because some people are certainly going to get violent over this.
I happen to believe that, using this lens for perspective, Joe Biden will act to eliminate this threat to our national security. Timing is the only questionable matter, but Biden will act because it is his responsibility to do so. It is his job, and it becomes much easier to carry out responsibly when the principal character is not your political opponent.
I am baffled by how people think Trump will ever again assume the Presidency, unless he has more allies in the military than I'm aware of. The real question becomes whether Biden will hand over the military for Trump to use, or not. I contend that Biden will not give up this control to an individual who is an active threat to national security.
Put another way - if violence at some scale is inevitable, which do you prefer? Having Trump use the military against ”radical left lunatics”? Or Biden to neutralize a security threat, and the resulting extremist terrorism? Either the military goes into cities to take care of nebulous leftist threats and ”ANTIFA” or they can be used to disarm terrorist groups like Proud Boys or Oathkeepers. Take your pick, because it is one or the other.
The election itself is a secondary matter.
It’s extremely fascinating to me how Trump is running at least 3-4 points ahead of most of the GOP senate candidates. Ted Cruz is up by +3, Trump is up 6. Nevada Trump is tied against Harris, Rosen is +5. Nebraska, Wisconsin Trump is way ahead of the senate candidates. Perhaps, Trump is just his own unique candidate that provides coattails to a struggling Republican Party. Once Trump is out of politics, I think Democrats go back to dominating the Rust belt and winning most elections
Dude — the 4% of people who think their taxes are too low are the rich people (plus a few who didn’t understand the question). Plenty of well off people think they have done well in this country, and they wouldn’t be angry paying a little more. They do exist. Not enough of them, but enough to register as a significant part of that poll.
Some of the 4% who see their taxes as too low are probably investors who make money with carried interest which is taxed at a lower rate than wage income. The marginal tax rates charged on that proverbial CEO stock options vs the secretary’s weekly check. Warren Buffet has made this point repeatedly.
Can’t wait for the eventual “don’t trust the polls” comments and vitriol to show up.
Also This is why I don’t believe the polls. So before you criticize the nay-sayers, look at past data. There’s a good reason to be skeptical about what media tells us.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
To believe that Trump is winning is a terrible indictment of Americans, don’t you think? Supporting his appalling behavior? Polls are meaningless really. Particularly in the margin of error. Harris could be up by 4 points and the polls would still be accurate. lol. I just dont believe them. I don’t believe what the media says either.
You’re one of the main reasons I love being part of this Substack. When people post on here I already know they are like me, very politically engaged. I’m not arguing with my super liberal aunt or super conservative uncle. People have extremely valid points that constantly make me reassess my own strongly held beliefs. Big fan.
As to your question (sorry for the rambling) I don’t really know what the current state of play says about America. Is it that people love Trump? Hate Kamala? Is it more indicative of the democrats rolling out an unelected weak candidate or is it truly that Trump’s fan are a cult? I don’t know, if I did I would make millions pontificating on the cable news shows. Are the polls accurate or off? The distrust of the media is appalling on both sides. Basically, I have no clue. Like many on this Substack. It makes me worry for the future of our nation that we are so polarized that we can’t even agree on anything. I do believe that both candidates are divisive and our country would be much better served if JD Vance was running against Tim Walz. Two guys that have genuine policy agreements, but seem to understand the country has more in common than they don’t. I’m growing tired of this presidential cycle already and we still have a few weeks (God willing only a few weeks) left.