Chris Crucial: A *third* of Republicans believe this insane conspiracy

PLUS: Nikki Haley is going to get embarrassed

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1. Republicans LOVE a good conspiracy theory. We’ve known this for a while now. (The 2020 election was stolen. Ted Cruz’s father was part of the JFK assassination. The Covid vaccine makes you more likely to get the virus. There is a “Deep State” out to get Donald Trump.)

But, I will admit to being taken aback by the findings in a new Monmouth University poll.

Here’s the question the pollsters asked: “Do you think that a covert government effort for Taylor Swift to help Joe Biden win the presidential election actually exists, or not?”

Overall, 73% said that government effort does not exist while 18% said it does. (One in five people! Like, what?!) But, dig a little deeper into the poll’s crosstabs and you find this: Among Republicans 32% believe there is, in fact, a government-led effort to elevate Taylor Swift in order to help Joe Biden win.

Just quickly — and indulge me — in order for this to be true, the following things have to also be true: 1) The relationship between Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is not real and was arranged by the Democrats somehow 2) The NFL is in on this — propelling the Chiefs to a Super Bowl win to showcase Swift 3) The TV networks (all of them) are ALSO in on this because they agreed to cut away to Swift in a box watching Kelce over and over again.

MAN! That’s a pretty big conspiracy theory! Like, how the hell has word of this not leaked? Is this like the reverse vampires?

Plus, there’s this: It’s not like Swift wasn’t HUGE before she started dating Kelce. She was a worldwide phenomenon! But, what if the government was behind this too??? We don’t even know how deep this goes!

Look. Conspiracy theories (and theorists) have always been a part of American life. But, there is NO question that the rise of Trump — and his willingness to insert conspiracies into normal discourse (Barack Obama was not born in the U.S., Pizzagate, Seth Rich and on and on) has brought many of these people out of the shadows.

Conspiracy theories have gone mainstream. Big time. And that bodes poorly for, say, something like the 2024 election. Because, if Trump loses, he is going to insist that it was stolen from him. And, unfortunately, a decent sized-chunk of the Republican party will swallow that hook, line and sinker.

2. Nikki Haley is going to get embarrassed. I have made clear in this space that I don’t understand Haley’s endgame in the 2024 presidential primary. She has no viable path to victory and all she is doing now is pissing off Donald Trump. (Maybe that’s the point?)

There’s a new poll out in South Carolina that suggests that Haley is not just going to lose the state’s primary on February 24 but that the very real possibility exists that she will be humiliated by the results.

The Winthrop University poll puts Trump at 65% to Haley 29%. Which, well:

And, that’s far from an outlier. The last three polls conducted in the race — including Winthrop — show Trump ahead by 37, 35 and 36 points.

It’s just not going to be close, folks.

Which raises the question — again — what the hell is Haley doing? Is she ok with getting embarrassed in her home state as the coda of her candidacy? Does she think she can possibly continue on through Super Tuesday if she loses to Trump in South Carolina by 25 or 30 points?

I don’t see it. Unless Haley’s only goal is to establish herself as a voice within the GOP that was warning against the danger of nominating Trump — so she can say “I told you so” if he loses in November it just doesn’t make sense.

And/But, she’s pretty late to that game! It’s only been in the last few weeks that Haley has been willing to say much of anything negative about Trump.

3. Trump trials, continued. Cast your eye to Georgia tomorrow morning when a judge hears Donald Trump’s attempt to disqualify Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis from the case she has brought against him regarding his attempts to meddle in the 2020 election in the state. (You can watch the hearing, which starts at 9:30 am eastern, here.)

At issue is an intimate relationship between Willis and Nathan Wade, an attorney she hired to lead the case. Willis did not initially disclose the relationship. But, in a court filing in early January, a former Trump official suggested Willis and Wade were in a together.

Nearly a month later, Willis and Wade acknowledged the relationship. “While the allegations raised in the various motions are salacious and garnered the media attention they were designed to obtain, none provide this Court with any basis upon which to order the relief they seek,” said Willis in a statement.

Willis also made clear that her relationship began after Wade was hired on the case — and therefore was not what Trump and his allies have claimed: That she was funneling money to Wade — via the case — because of their personal relationship.

Anti-Trump forces have (mostly privately) groused that Willis’ failure to admit the relationship has handed Trump an issue that he will run with — regardless of how the judge rules in this case. (For MUCH more on the case, read this.)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I hope you guys are happy with this dismal performance and your 10 million for futile Bull Shit cost the party.” — Former Rep. George Santos to his New York GOP congressional colleagues after the party lost a special election to replace him Tuesday.

ONE GOOD CHART

Republican party committees are lagging behind their Democratic counterparts badly in the cash dash. This chart comes courtesy of Steve Rattner.

SONG OF THE DAY

I was sitting in a coffee shop this afternoon when “A Long December” by the Counting Crows came on. Man I love that song — and whole “August and Everything After” album.