CHRIS CRUCIAL: Biden's 'Democracy' argument isn't working 🇺🇸

PLUS: Our looming debt crisis

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1. Biden’s ‘democracy’ fail

The most important speech of Joe Biden’s presidency may well have been the one he gave on January 5 in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.

In that address, Biden very clearly laid out what he believes to be the stakes of this election: A choice between democracy and authoritarianism.

“Today, we're here to answer the most important of questions — is democracy still America’s sacred cause,” Biden said at the start of the speech.

He drove that theme home as he closed the address:

“Today, I make this sacred pledge to you -- the defense, protection, and preservation of American democracy will remain, as it has been, the central cause of my presidency.”

The message was clear: Joe Biden was running, again, to save capital “D” Democracy.

It isn’t working.

Despite hammering home the idea of Trump as a threat to democratic ideals, Biden has struggled to make the issue one that persuadable voters care about.

The New York Times’ David Leonhardt tried to tackle the “why” behind that reality in a recent piece. He wrote:

Biden talks about the country’s soul and pitches himself as a defender of American values, especially democracy. It is an understandable pitch in many ways: Trump is hostile to democratic traditions in a way that no other modern U.S. politician has been.

But many swing voters are focused elsewhere. They are dissatisfied with the country’s direction and, in some cases, have been for years. Many distrust the political system, the media and other institutions and favor sweeping changes. Biden’s promise of stability — along with his vagueness about a second-term agenda — falls flat with them.

That notion is born out in public polling. Gallup regularly asks voters what the most important issue facing the country is — and “democracy” (or a threat to it) is nowhere to be found.

Here’s what people named as the most pressing issues in an April Gallup poll:

By contrast, just 3% of voters said that “Elections/Election reform/Democracy” was the most important issue facing the country. And those numbers have been remarkably consistent over many months; since last November no more than 5% of people have ever cited elections or democracy as the most important issue.

You can see the problem here if you are Biden. Trump spends 90% of his time talking about immigration and the economy — and detailing all the ways that Biden is coming up short on those two issues. Those are the two issues, by far, that people are most concerned about.

Meanwhile, Biden is trying to make this election a referendum on democracy. And he can’t get people to care.

Before you start yelling at me in the comments section, let me say this: I DO think democracy writ large is on the ballot this fall. Biden represents — both domestically and internationally — a continuance of the norms that have guided America policy for years. Trump, as outlined by his own rhetoric and the policies he plans to institute if elected, would clearly be a departure from those norms — and a move toward a more authoritarian worldview.

But, elections are decided in the real world — not in a world we wish existed. And in the real world, undecided voters are simply not motivated by the idea that Donald Trump will destroy democracy. They either don’t really believe it or they are just much more focused on the price of groceries or the perceived threat to our country represented by undocumented immigrants coming in through the southern border.

You can get annoyed at that. Or even downright angry. You can blame the media (ridiculous — but you can do it!). But, none of that will change the reality that Biden’s “democracy” message simply isn’t convincing the people who he needs to convince.

I think that’s why we’ve seen Biden pivot to a harder-line stance on immigration with his recent executive order and make the decision to go directly at Trump as a convicted felon.

I know Biden cares deeply about the idea of this election as, fundamentally, being about protecting democracy. But, good politicians don’t get fixated on what they think the election should be about. They adjust to what the voters think the election is about.

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2. The looming debt crisis

According to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit is set to grow to $1.9 trillion this fiscal year and within the next decade our national debt will soar above $50 trillion.

As the report notes:

Relative to the size of the economy, debt swells from 2024 to 2034 as increases in interest costs and mandatory spending outpace decreases in discretionary spending and growth in revenues. Debt held by the public rises from 99 percent of GDP this year to 122 percent in 2034, surpassing its previous high of 106 percent of GDP.

For you non-economists out there: The federal government is spending MUCH more than it is taking in — and there is no end in sight.

Those numbers will make for some VERY hard decisions come 2025 — no matter who wins the White House or controls Congress.

As the Washington Post points out:

Next year, vast portions of the tax code are set to expire, potentially forcing a steep tax hike on individuals and families. Congress suspended the debt limit in 2023, but that, too, will expire next year, setting up a showdown between the two parties over federal spending.

And Medicare and Social Security are running low on funds, which could force a benefit cut for tens of millions of Americans just as the national debt crescendos.

While both parties — and presidents of both parties — are to blame, the Trump presidency sent the deficit into overdrive. Trump’s programs added more than $8 trillion to the debt, with his tax cut law representing about $2 trillion by itself.

If Trump is elected, he will almost certainly push to make the tax cuts passed in his first term permanent. Biden has proposed raising taxes on those making $400,000 and above to close the spending gap.

Biden is campaigning on a pledge to protect Medicare and Social Security, insisting Trump will make cuts there if elected. Trump has insisted he will not cut those entitlement programs — although his recent rhetoric on the topic is confusing at best.

3. A Good night in Virginia?

Virginia Republican Rep. Bob Good is the head of the House Freedom Caucus, the most pro-Trump wing of Congress. Which, you might think, would keep him in the former president’s good graces.

You’d be wrong.

See, Good was one of a very small number of House members to endorse Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid. And Trump wants to make him pay for that decision.

The former president has thrown his endorsement behind state Sen. John McGuire, who is challenging Good in the Republican primary for the 5th district today. (McGuire is an election denier who attended the “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6, 2021 in Washington.)

On Monday, Trump participated in a tele-town hall for McGuire. On that call, Trump said that Good “let us down very big...After I won the primaries he became a big fan. That’s not good enough.”

It’s not just Trump who has sided against Good. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has made beating Good — one of 8 GOP House members who voted for the motion to vacate McCarthy as Speaker — a priority as well. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, another opponent of Good, said that the Congressman “kicked Trump when he was down, and went and endorsed another candidate.”

According to Politico, anti-Good groups have spent more than $9 million on the race. Pro-Good forces have spent $5 million.

If Good loses, he will be the first House incumbent of either party to be defeated in a primary this year.

Polls close in Virginia at 7 pm eastern time. You can follow the Good-McGuire primary results here.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“This is Soviet. Kevin McCarthy showed them the man, and they are now trying to find the crime.” — Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz reacts to the news that the House Ethics Committee will continue to investigate him

ONE GOOD CHART

Cable is dying. Broadcast TV too. This chart — via Nielsen — shows that streaming accounted for the largest percentage of overall viewership ever in May.

SONG OF THE DAY

Twelve years ago today, John Lennon’s handwritten lyrics to “A Day in the Life” — widely regarded as the best Beatles song ever — sold for $1.2 million at auction. What better reason to revisit the perfect combo of Lennon and Paul McCartney?

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