Chris Crucial: Donald Trump killed the primaries ⚔️⚔️⚔️

PLUS: GOP scrambles on IVF ruling

Welcome to the Friday edition of “Chris Crucial” — a nightly newsletter where I bring you the best (and worst) of the political happenings of the day. If you like this, PLEASE become a member of the “So What” community. You can sign up below — with just one click! 👇

1. The end of primaries: POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin has a terrific piece today in which he — rightly — notes that Donald Trump has effectively killed the South Carolina presidential primary set for tomorrow.

Writes JMart:

Over its colorful history, South Carolina presidential plebiscite has been many things — dirty, decisive and, most recently for Joe Biden, rejuvenating. But it had never been sleepy. Until now.

Nikki Haley has run a conventional campaign against the most thoroughly unconventional candidate of our times. Trump has done, and even this may be charitable, the bare minimum of campaigning in the state this month. And the national press corps has largely checked out of the race, concluding after two Trump victories that the outcome is pre-ordained so why bother building a pricey set and deploying anchors as they did for past showdowns here.

That is exactly right. Trump is going to be outspent — by a wide margin — by Haley. She will run more TV ads. She will stump more. She will do everything the way the traditional political playbooks suggests she should.

And he will win by somewhere between 25 and 30 points (if polling is to be believed).

It’s remarkable. But, it’s not an anomaly. I would argue, in fact, that Trump has effectively killed each of the early votes — turning them from the grip and grin, baby-kissing spectacles they once were into purely nationalized contests.

The scenario JMart describes in South Carolina played out in Iowa and then New Hampshire last month. Consider:

• The popular Republican governors of both of those states endorsed someone other than Trump. That was once a big deal! Now, Trump simply attacked them as RINOs and won anyway.

• Trump campaigned only sparsely in both states. When he did do events, they weren’t the small gatherings that both places have long prided themselves on — where residents can really get a chance to see the candidate up close and personal. Instead, they were the large-scale rallies — in which Trump speaks for 90 minutes or more — that have become his trademark.

• Trump barely even mentioned issues that were once considered critical to Iowa and New Hampshire. Ask yourself how many times ethanol subsidies came up in Iowa. Zero? Once? That was once a STAPLE of ANY candidate’s pitch to voters in the state. Hell, John McCain took a pass on Iowa in 2008 because he opposed the subsidies!

None of it mattered. Trump won Iowa by the largest margin in the history of the caucuses. He cruised to victory in New Hampshire despite Haley winning overwhelmingly among unaffiliated voters who were allowed to participate in the vote. And he is going to roll in South Carolina. And sweep the Super Tuesday states on March 5.

The entire primary campaign will have been a national one. Not once during it will Trump have bent the knee to local traditions (or even familiarized himself with them).

Does this mean the early primaries (and caucuses) are dead forever? I would never be so dumb as to assume that. Stuff changes! This is politics!

Trump, a celebrity even before he ran for office not to mention a former president, was able to make his own rules for how you win a party’s nomination. There are not a lot of people — in either party — with that sort of profile. And who wouldn’t pay some sort of penalty for just basically ALL the rules in how to run and win in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But, for now, please spare me the anecdotes about how New Hampshire voters have to “kick the tires” on a candidate. Or how unless Iowans have met you at their house or a house of a neighbor they won’t vote for you. Trump proved that is all BS.

2. Republicans scramble on IVF ruling: One week ago, the Alabama Supreme Court said that frozen embryos are children and that people who destroy them could be charged with wrongful death.

Republicans have been trying to contain the political damage ever since. Supporters of in vitro fertilization (IVF) have suggested that the ruling would make it more difficult to access the fertility treatment — and several clinics in the state paused their IVF services after the ruling.

Finally, after days of wondering where he stood on the issue, Trump came out in support of IVF in a Friday afternoon post on Truth Social.

“Like the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of Americans, including the VAST MAJORITY of Republicans, Conservatives, Christians, and Pro-Life Americans, I strongly support the availability of IVF for couples who are trying to have a precious baby,” he wrote.

Just hours before, the executive director of the Republican Senate campaign committee had advised — in a memo — for the party’s candidates to come out strongly in support of IVF treatments.

Calling the ruling “fodder for Democrats hoping to manipulate the abortion issue for electoral gain,” the committee urged its candidates to “clearly and concisely reject efforts by the government to restrict IVF.”

A number of them — including Kari Lake in Arizona and Larry Hogan in Maryland — immediately took to social media to take just that position.

Regardless of the GOP positioning, the Alabama ruling seems likely to further fuel talk of the future of abortion rights in the wake of the overturning of Roe v Wade by the Supreme Court. Anger over that ruling has fueled Democratic gains in recent elections.

3. Livestream!: I spent 45 minutes this afternoon answering questions on politics (and other stuff) on my YouTube channel today. The full video is below!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I’ve been indicted more than some of the greatest criminals in the world.” — Donald Trump, today

ONE GOOD CHART

Joe Biden’s job approval rating is at 38% in the latest Gallup numbers. That’s just one point above his all-time low in the poll.

SONG OF THE DAY

The new album — “The Past Is Still Alive” — from Hurray for the Riff Raff is out today and it is a STUNNER (in a good way)! If you don’t know HFTRR, check out this playlist from The Amplifier at the New York Times. And listen to “Alibi.”