CHRIS CRUCIAL: Donald Trump won't save Mike Johnson 💀

PLUS: Charlie Cook on 2026 🧠

🚨🚨🚨 Starting January 1, this post will be for PAID subscribers only. If it’s become part of your nightly routine, I hope you consider becoming an investor in what I am building. (You can read more about my mission here. ) It’s $6 a month or $60 for the year to become a paid subscriber!👇

1. Disloyal Donald 👎

(AI image generated by Grok)

Amid all the sturm und drang about how — and whether — Congressional Republicans will keep the government open and funded beyond tomorrow night, you might have missed Donald Trump making his feelings about Speaker Mike Johnson’s future known.

Here’s it is in GIF form:

Let me explain.

On Thursday afternoon, as Johnson desperately cast around to find a solution following Trump’s public execution of the first funding bill, the president-elect was asked about whether he still had confidence in the Speaker.

Here’s how Trump responded: “We'll see. What they had yesterday was unacceptable. In many ways it was unacceptable. It’s a Democrat trap.”

Paging Mike Johnson. Mike Johnson, please pick up the white courtesy phone.

Now, Johnson defenders will note, that Trump did publicly endorse Johnson’s 2nd attempt to keep the government open — a slimmed-down bill designed to get more Republicans on board.

To which I say: Riiiiiiiight.

Like, does ANYONE believe that if the chips are down for Johnson, Trump is going to ride to the rescue — unless, of course, the president-elect believes it to be good for his own politics?

No way in hell!

Trump’s loyalty (or lack thereof) could well be tested even before he gets into office. Kentucky Rep. Tom Massie, a fiscal hawk, said earlier this week that he will not vote for Johnson as Speaker early next year.

“He does not have my vote,” Massie said, adding that it would take a “Christmas miracle” to change his mind.

Yes, Massie is just one Member. But remember that Republicans will have only a 220-215 seat majority in the next Congress. And that, for Johnson to be reelected as Speaker, he needs a simple majority of the House. No Democrats will vote for him. Which means that is if Johnson loses just FIVE Republican votes, he doesn’t have the votes.

That’s the kind of sticky predicament where Johnson would need stalwart and steady support from Trump.

What today told me is that Johnson isn’t likely to get it.

2. Charlie is down on Dems’ Senate chances ⬇️

Charlie Cook was my first boss in Washington. He was then — and remains today — one of the preeminent handicapper of elections in the country.

Which is why his most recent column — on Democrats’ chances at the House and Senate majorities in 2026 — was so interesting to me.

The long and short of it is this: Charlie thinks Democrats should focus their time and money on re-taking the House majority because he sees the Senate as simply out of reach.

He writes:

The Republican majority in the House today is as precarious as either party has seen in that chamber in at least a century. Conversely, the GOP’s majority in the Senate is about as solid as can be, regardless of what President-elect Trump’s standing will be in November 2026.

Remember the numbers: Republicans will start the 119th Congress next year with a 220-215 seat edge over Democrats in the House. In the Senate, Republicans will control 53 seats to 47 for Democrats.

Lose three seats in the House and the GOP majority is gone. The Senate, however, is a much tougher nut for Democrats to crack.

As Charlie notes in the piece, there simply aren’t very many pickup opportunities for Democrats in the Senate.

Susan Collins of Maine will be a major target given that Kamala Harris won the state in 2024 but the Republican incumbent has shown an ability to win in good years and bad for her party nationally.

North Carolina’s Thom Tillis could well face a primary challenge from Mark Robinson, the self professed “Black Nazi” lieutenant governor who lost badly in his bid for the governor’s office this fall. That could be tough for Tillis — even with all of Robinson’s problems because the GOP primary electorate is very Trump-y.

Democrats are putting a whole lot of hope in the possibility that outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper makes the race. If he does — and people in the state say it is a real possibility — then this immediately becomes the party’s best pickup opportunity.

But beyond Maine and North Carolina, the Democratic pickup opportunities start to dwindle despite the fact that there are 18 other GOP seats up for reelection in 2026.

And while only 13 Democratic seats are up, there are several that will be hard to defend under any circumstances — with Georgia’s Jon Ossoff and Michigan’s Gary Peters at the top of that list. Both represent states Donald Trump won in November. And New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen is also regarded as potentially vulnerable.

How could Democrats make a real run at the Senate majority? Hope like hell Republicans choose bad candidates, according to Charlie:

Turning back to 2026, Democrats' only shot might involve GOP primary voters choosing questionable candidates who might be adequate in safe Republican states and districts but highly problematic in purple, competitive jurisdictions. In 2022, Republicans undercut their chances of winning four Senate races by nominating deeply flawed candidates in Arizona (Blake Masters), Georgia (Herschel Walker), New Hampshire (Don Bolduc), and Pennsylvania (Mehmet Oz).

Which is always possible! But not at all likely — at least not today.

3. What I got wrong covering Joe Biden ❌

In Wednesday’s “Chris Crucial,” I highlighted a New York Times story about the twilight of Joe Biden’s presidency — and the clear signs that he has slowed considerably.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal ran a story — in which they talked to 50(!) people in and around Bidenworld — that concluded:

Presidents always have gatekeepers. But in Biden’s case, the walls around him were higher and the controls greater, according to Democratic lawmakers, donors and aides who worked for Biden and other administrations. There were limits over who Biden spoke with, limits on what they said to him and limits around the sources of information he consumed.

Throughout his presidency, a small group of aides stuck close to Biden to assist him, especially when traveling or speaking to the public. “They body him to such a high degree,” a person who witnessed it said, adding that the “hand holding” is unlike anything other recent presidents have had.

Those two pieces got me thinking about how, when I was at CNN, I covered the questions about Biden’s mental and physical wellbeing. I made a video reflecting on that for my YouTube channel.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Who gave you the right to take my picture, asshole?” — Georgia Democratic Rep. David Scott to a photographer

ONE GOOD CHART

Elon Musk is an X super-user — especially since he bought it. (Chart via The Economist)

SONG OF THE DAY

Professor Longhair (aka Henry Roeland Byrd) was born on this day in 1918. This story — from 2014 — about the efforts to renovate the only home he ever owned is pretty amazing. Here’s “Fess” (as he was known) and The Meters doing “Tipitina.”

Thanks for reading! This nightly newsletter brings you ALL of what you need to know from the world of politics. Think of it as a daily cheat sheet! If you want to get it in your email inbox every night at 7:30 pm, become a subscriber today!