Yes, the Electoral College favors Rs in general. Similarly, the Senate provides an advantage to Rs b/c so many lower population and solid R states are pretty much guaranteed 2 Senate seats for Rs . ( Gentle reminder , CC, re your promised Senate battle piece) . And the advantage Rs have in the Senate means IMO that any effort to get rid of the filibuster will backfire in the long run. As to the CNN map, I agree that Nev is a toss-up. I’d say the same re Michigan. It also seems possible to me that Ds can win NC again b/c the far right loon they have running for Gov May depress R turn-out and motivate Ds.
It's silly to count NV and MI as "lean GOP" and just hand them to Trump, like you did. Take either of them away (I suspect Biden WILL win both) and the whole premise falls apart into a lump of nonsense.
No. Trump does NOT have "272" EC votes. Just stop.
Of course, no poll is perfect, and some of the polls are biased or otherwise flawed. But discounting them entirely is a form of denial. Consider this: Biden's team and the DNC do their own polling, and they endeavor to make their polls accurate. If the Ds' internal polling showed positive news for Joe, you'd have heard about it. The right approach is to take the polls with a grain of salt , but also view the concerning trends as a call to action. Contribute what you can and volunteer if you can. We have a real fight on our hands, as sad and maddening as that is.
I am not "discounting them entirely". The reality is that this race is close....for now.
But, what we are seeing is this reverence given to low participation polling (around 1,000 people in a nation of over 300 million) 8 months out, which have a history of not being very predicative, and literally proclaiming that...
"...272 electoral votes for Trump and 225 for Biden. Which means that even if Trump lost the 40 electoral votes in the toss-up states of Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — he would still be elected president."
I imagine Bragg is pushing back the Stormy D trial to give Trumps lawyers plenty of time to go over all of the evidence and thus avoid an appeal/demand for a new trial based on the unfair introduction of late evidence.
Yes, but it's about the late document production from the SDNY US Atty, which was requested by Trump's lawyer's , not Bragg. And Trump's lawyers' request was not as timely it should have been. It's doubtful any of the documents shed new light . In other words, it's another Trump delaying tactic. The Judge needs to accept the delay, and that may depend on his calendar. It bugs me that people downplay this case. If that story had broken on the heels of the "grab them by the @#%" tape, who knows how the election would have been affected.
At what point does the media stop referring to the polls as “bad for Biden” or “bad for the Dems”, and start calling them bad for our country, or bad for Democracy? Saying the polls are bad for one of the candidates in this particular election year is providing an equivalence to their campaigns, and I think it is vastly downplaying how dangerous a Trump second term is for our country. We need to be sounding alarms and we’re not. We’re reporting on how bad the polls look. Feels like we’re just casually marching along as if everything is normal, when it is anything but.
And if you throw in the battle ground states, RCP shows Biden 226, Trump 312. Show choose your poison. Bottom line: a lot is going to happen between now and November. I don’t put a lot of weight in these early polls because of that. However, to not pay attention to them would be like an ostrich with your head in the sands. I’d rather know now where I need to focus than being surprised, like Clinton, in November.
Thank you Angel for your very OBJECTIVE observation. Chris is using one Network's subjective and parochial map of Electoral College to further his Narrative and ignored the more objective and more reliable 538's average of polls Electoral map. You don't get to cherry pick maps and graphs that support your parochial views. That is not INDEPENDENCE, FAIRNESS OR OBJECTIVITY.
So what? Is the US just done? Donald Trump is going to be elected because of the electoral college? If he were anyone else, he wouldn’t even be able to FIND A JOB. All of his indictments and charges? He wouldn’t be be hired for a janitorial position if he were ANYONE ELSE and now he is going to be PRESIDENT OF THE US? AGAIN??
As far as I’m concerned this is a travesty. The US has lost its collective shit. The US is already a laughingstock and has proven itself to be an unreliable world partner because of DONALD TRUMP. Donald Trump has made a joke out of the presidency and Congress. He has made a joke out of the SCOTUS, and now he is in the process of making a joke out of the rest of the courts.
We need to gird our loins and get ready to absorb the government we deserve after the inevitable reelection of Donald Trump.
Forced birth for our daughters and granddaughters.
Internment camps for our Hispanic neighbors and friends before their deportations.
Donald Trump will hand Ukraine over to Putin and Putin will invade Poland, doing “whatever the hell he wants”. No more NATO for the US!
The J6 “hostages” will be running the streets again. Released on Day One by their commander, Donald Trump.
All this and so much more. And we will deserve it. Because we just gave away the nation to Donald Trump and watched while he took a wrecking ball to our way of life. And he will never leave office. It will be Trumps for life. One after the other.
Thanks. Indicted President Trump needs the election as a get out of jail event and the results only need to be closed to declare victory letting the Supreme court or congress to decide the winner as planned in 2020.
My opinion is that Chris and others in the media are already sounding scared or naive of indicted former President Trump.
Point of correction AGAIN, Chris. Jack Smith is not investigating Trump's actions in and around the 2020 election. The investigation is completed and the Grand jury has indicted Trump. Now waiting doe the TRIAL ans not INVESTIGATION . I am sure your subscribers know this fact as well so please stop referring to Jack Smith's actions as investigation.
In Chris Cilliza's OPINION, "Republicans start with a clear edge in the Electoral College Map and it is hard to see that Changing between now and November"
It should be noted here that THIS IS CHRIS CILLIZA'S OPINION ,Based on no OBJECTIVE facts.
Hey Chris - don't count Nevada out just yet - we have a lot of people in the urban areas (Reno/Sparks, Las Vegas) who are Democrats &/or liberals &/or just plain disgusted with that man! Plus, we have some very obnoxious obvious supporters of his trying to influence (or takeover) state and local offices and functions - these people are getting support BUT also creating opposition. So - fingers crossed.
Ha ha ha...Some people may be excited that Trump's hush money payment in NewYork could be delayed. I have got some news for you Don't get so excited!. Trump is going to face the Trial in NewYork for sure.
Yes, the Electoral College favors Rs in general. Similarly, the Senate provides an advantage to Rs b/c so many lower population and solid R states are pretty much guaranteed 2 Senate seats for Rs . ( Gentle reminder , CC, re your promised Senate battle piece) . And the advantage Rs have in the Senate means IMO that any effort to get rid of the filibuster will backfire in the long run. As to the CNN map, I agree that Nev is a toss-up. I’d say the same re Michigan. It also seems possible to me that Ds can win NC again b/c the far right loon they have running for Gov May depress R turn-out and motivate Ds.
Please STOP USING POLLS EIGHT MONTHS OUT!!!
538 had a great article today showing that polls in March are not very predictive.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leading-polls-plenty-time-biden-catch/story?id=108062780
It's silly to count NV and MI as "lean GOP" and just hand them to Trump, like you did. Take either of them away (I suspect Biden WILL win both) and the whole premise falls apart into a lump of nonsense.
No. Trump does NOT have "272" EC votes. Just stop.
Really NONSENSE Dave. I completely agree with you.
Of course, no poll is perfect, and some of the polls are biased or otherwise flawed. But discounting them entirely is a form of denial. Consider this: Biden's team and the DNC do their own polling, and they endeavor to make their polls accurate. If the Ds' internal polling showed positive news for Joe, you'd have heard about it. The right approach is to take the polls with a grain of salt , but also view the concerning trends as a call to action. Contribute what you can and volunteer if you can. We have a real fight on our hands, as sad and maddening as that is.
I am not "discounting them entirely". The reality is that this race is close....for now.
But, what we are seeing is this reverence given to low participation polling (around 1,000 people in a nation of over 300 million) 8 months out, which have a history of not being very predicative, and literally proclaiming that...
"...272 electoral votes for Trump and 225 for Biden. Which means that even if Trump lost the 40 electoral votes in the toss-up states of Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — he would still be elected president."
That's just a leap of illogical nonsense.
I imagine Bragg is pushing back the Stormy D trial to give Trumps lawyers plenty of time to go over all of the evidence and thus avoid an appeal/demand for a new trial based on the unfair introduction of late evidence.
Yes, but it's about the late document production from the SDNY US Atty, which was requested by Trump's lawyer's , not Bragg. And Trump's lawyers' request was not as timely it should have been. It's doubtful any of the documents shed new light . In other words, it's another Trump delaying tactic. The Judge needs to accept the delay, and that may depend on his calendar. It bugs me that people downplay this case. If that story had broken on the heels of the "grab them by the @#%" tape, who knows how the election would have been affected.
I agree.
At what point does the media stop referring to the polls as “bad for Biden” or “bad for the Dems”, and start calling them bad for our country, or bad for Democracy? Saying the polls are bad for one of the candidates in this particular election year is providing an equivalence to their campaigns, and I think it is vastly downplaying how dangerous a Trump second term is for our country. We need to be sounding alarms and we’re not. We’re reporting on how bad the polls look. Feels like we’re just casually marching along as if everything is normal, when it is anything but.
The RCP which is a poll of polls is showing 215 to 219.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college
And if you throw in the battle ground states, RCP shows Biden 226, Trump 312. Show choose your poison. Bottom line: a lot is going to happen between now and November. I don’t put a lot of weight in these early polls because of that. However, to not pay attention to them would be like an ostrich with your head in the sands. I’d rather know now where I need to focus than being surprised, like Clinton, in November.
Thank you Angel for your very OBJECTIVE observation. Chris is using one Network's subjective and parochial map of Electoral College to further his Narrative and ignored the more objective and more reliable 538's average of polls Electoral map. You don't get to cherry pick maps and graphs that support your parochial views. That is not INDEPENDENCE, FAIRNESS OR OBJECTIVITY.
How is RCP any more objective? I thought you didn’t believe in polls.
So what? Is the US just done? Donald Trump is going to be elected because of the electoral college? If he were anyone else, he wouldn’t even be able to FIND A JOB. All of his indictments and charges? He wouldn’t be be hired for a janitorial position if he were ANYONE ELSE and now he is going to be PRESIDENT OF THE US? AGAIN??
As far as I’m concerned this is a travesty. The US has lost its collective shit. The US is already a laughingstock and has proven itself to be an unreliable world partner because of DONALD TRUMP. Donald Trump has made a joke out of the presidency and Congress. He has made a joke out of the SCOTUS, and now he is in the process of making a joke out of the rest of the courts.
We need to gird our loins and get ready to absorb the government we deserve after the inevitable reelection of Donald Trump.
Forced birth for our daughters and granddaughters.
Internment camps for our Hispanic neighbors and friends before their deportations.
Donald Trump will hand Ukraine over to Putin and Putin will invade Poland, doing “whatever the hell he wants”. No more NATO for the US!
The J6 “hostages” will be running the streets again. Released on Day One by their commander, Donald Trump.
All this and so much more. And we will deserve it. Because we just gave away the nation to Donald Trump and watched while he took a wrecking ball to our way of life. And he will never leave office. It will be Trumps for life. One after the other.
Thanks. Indicted President Trump needs the election as a get out of jail event and the results only need to be closed to declare victory letting the Supreme court or congress to decide the winner as planned in 2020.
My opinion is that Chris and others in the media are already sounding scared or naive of indicted former President Trump.
Point of correction AGAIN, Chris. Jack Smith is not investigating Trump's actions in and around the 2020 election. The investigation is completed and the Grand jury has indicted Trump. Now waiting doe the TRIAL ans not INVESTIGATION . I am sure your subscribers know this fact as well so please stop referring to Jack Smith's actions as investigation.
Bravo.
In Chris Cilliza's OPINION, "Republicans start with a clear edge in the Electoral College Map and it is hard to see that Changing between now and November"
It should be noted here that THIS IS CHRIS CILLIZA'S OPINION ,Based on no OBJECTIVE facts.
Hey Chris - don't count Nevada out just yet - we have a lot of people in the urban areas (Reno/Sparks, Las Vegas) who are Democrats &/or liberals &/or just plain disgusted with that man! Plus, we have some very obnoxious obvious supporters of his trying to influence (or takeover) state and local offices and functions - these people are getting support BUT also creating opposition. So - fingers crossed.
every morning I ask myself, can 45% of the country really be this stupid? sadly, the answer is apparently yes.
The RCP today is 1.8%. You can not put states polls within margin of error as winning and you know specially 8 months to election.
Ha ha ha...Some people may be excited that Trump's hush money payment in NewYork could be delayed. I have got some news for you Don't get so excited!. Trump is going to face the Trial in NewYork for sure.
Love Vampire Weekend!