CHRIS CRUCIAL: Donald's Trump massive legal gamble paid off 🎲🎲

PLUS: Kamala 2026? 2028?

In 57 days, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. I will be here bringing you everything you need to know between now and then — and over his four years as president.

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Happy Thanksgiving week. “Chris Crucial” will be somewhat abbreviated this week. Enjoy your holiday! — Chris

1. Trump’s legal triumph

Donald Trump, left and special counsel Jack Smith

One year ago, speculation was rampant that Donald Trump might not even make it through the Republican primary fight due to his mounting legal issues.

At the time, Trump faced four indictments: 1) A New York case regarding hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels 2) A federal case — brought by special counsel Jack Smith — on Trump’s retention of classified materials after leaving the White House 3) A second federal case brought by Smith focused on Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election 4) A case in Georgia about his meddling in that state’s election.

Scads of pieces were written predicting that Trump’s legal entanglements would be his downfall, with many suggesting the former president might well be in jail (or at least sentenced to prison) before November 2024 even arrived.

In the face of that legal peril, Trump did two things that he has done throughout his oft-litigated life: He used every delaying tactic the legal system allows and he insisted he had done nothing wrong.

Looking back with a year’s hindsight, it’s clear that Trump gambled right.

Consider:

a) Trump is now the president-elect

b) Per “a”, Jack Smith filed Monday to end both federal cases against Trump — citing the Department of Justice’s rule not to pursue prosecutions against a sitting president

c) The 34 felony counts Trump was convicted of in a Manhattan courtroom in May not only didn’t impact his campaign but weren’t even mentioned by Democrats by the end of the race.

d) The Georgia case has been hamstrung by the personal foibles of the district attorney who brought it. At the moment, Trump’s lawyers are seeking to get the DA, Fani Willis, removed from the case; oral arguments on that effort begin next month. And this fall a judge threw out three of the charges against the former president.

Trump, always one to spike the football, did just that in the wake of Smith’s move to dismiss the federal cases. Here’s the president-elect’s Truth Social post on the decision:

Liberals noted that Smith asked that the two federal cases be dismissed “without prejudice,” meaning that, theoretically, the indictments could be revisited when Trump leaves office.

That seems like a very long shot, however. If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, there is a 0% chance he or she will direct the DOJ to re-open the Trump cases. And, even if Democrats regain the White House in four years, it will, to my mind, seem like sour grapes and yesterday’s news for the new president to aim at Trump for things that will have happened almost a decade ago at that point.

Could the Georgia state case ultimately lead to some conviction? I suppose. But it won’t put Trump in prison or impact the fact that he is president for the next four years.

Jack Smith’s moves on Monday amount to capitulation to Trump. The billionaire businessman won — and in so doing almost certainly kept himself from facing any legal peril for his alleged retention of classified documents and for his actions in and around the 2020 election.

It’s a remarkable turnaround from this time last year when it seemed as though Trump’s legal problems not his political issues were the bigger impediment to a return to the presidency.

Like it or not, Trump won. In more ways than one.

2. Kamala Harris isn’t going away

As noted in this space last week, Vice President Kamala Harris is not done with politics. The question appears now to be not if she runs agains but when — and for what office.

Here’s Politico on that:

Kamala Harris has been lying low since her defeat in the presidential race, unwinding with family and senior aides in Hawaii before heading back to the nation’s capital.

But privately, the vice president has been instructing advisers and allies to keep her options open — whether for a possible 2028 presidential run, or even to run for governor in her home state of California in two years. As Harris has repeated in phone calls, “I am staying in the fight.”

The rest of the piece is, to my mind, a little too rosy on the possibility that Harris could run for and win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. I mean, yes, she is ahead in the very limited polling that has been done on that race. But, I think that showing is FAR more a function of her high name identification nationally than it is reflective of a desire among Democrats to see her run again in four years time.

To my mind, the move for Harris is to run for California governor in 2026. For a bunch of reasons including: a) she’d be the frontrunner from the day she announced and might even clear the race of serious Democratic opposition b) it’s an open seat race c) the size and profile of California means its only a minor step down from being VP.

If Harris was to win the governor’s race — and, again, she’s have to be considered a favorite — it would mean that she was very unlikely to run for president in 2028. That’s too quick a turnaround and might lead to charges that she is just interested in running for things as opposed to governing.

But, again, I think passing on 2028 could be a good thing for Harris. While it would depend on Democrats losing the next presidential race, if that happened she would likely be very well positioned to run for the top job in 2032 — especially if her time as the chief executive of California is seen as successful.

Harris, of course, would not have the field to herself. Caitlyn Jenner, a high profile backer of Donald Trump, tweeted on Monday that she might run for governor as well:

Jenner ran in the 2021 recall election but took just 1% of the vote as Gov. Gavin Newsom beat back the attempt to throw him out of office.

Despite that weak showing, Jenner insisted that if she ran, she would beat Harris in 2026.

Count me skeptical.

3. Donald Trump (Jr.) 2028?

One of the big (and lesser-known) stories of the Trump presidential transition is how much influence Donald Trump Jr. has had on his dad’s Cabinet picks.

The Associated Press caught on today, writing:

When Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. circled up aboard the president-elect’s plane over some McDonalds burgers and fries recently, Donald Trump Jr. was seated in the center of that power foursome.

The central spot occupied by Trump’s eldest son, as captured in a photo widely shared online, reflects how Trump Jr. has become a prominent player in his father’s political orbit and a potential heir to his Make America Great Again movement.

Roll your eyes if you want! But that would be a misread of the current state of the GOP. I make the argument in the video below — posted on my YouTube channel! — that Don Jr. may well be the 2nd most powerful person in the Republican party right now.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Should he decide to enter this Race, Jimmy Patronis has my Complete and Total Endorsement. RUN, JIMMY, RUN!” — President-elect Donald Trump takes sides in the special election race to replace Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz

ONE GOOD CHART

I dug even deeper into the new Third Way poll on the 2024 electorate in battleground states — and found this chart that shows that in a change election, Kamala Harris was seen as more of the same.

SONG OF THE DAY

The TimeOut list of best albums of the year is out — and at #1 is “Romance” by Fontaines D.C. While I had listened to the album before, I hadn’t given it a deep listen before today. It’s a very good record. This is “Starburster.”

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