CHRIS CRUCIAL: GAETZ!!!!

PLUS: Me + Steve Schmidt *live* tonight

1. Donald Trump’s dare

On the campaign trail this year, Donald Trump made clear that he had learned his lesson during his first term as president — that he knew all the smart people (and all the dumb ones) and if he won again he would only surround himself with the good folks.

Which brings me to this bomb delivered by the president-elect via Truth Social on Wednesday afternoon:

Now, look. I always say that — given the past decade — I will never say never when it comes to what Trump will do. Nothing, I tell myself, could surprise me at this point.

But, dear reader, I will admit that when I saw the Gaetz news I a) gasped audibly and b) said “Holy shit” out loud.

Of course I knew that Gaetz, who was widely seen as a positioning himself to run for governor of Florida in 2026, had been one of Trump’s loudest and longest backers. Which would make him attractive to Trump.

But, well, how to say this…Gaetz was investigated by the Department of Justice, which he would lead if confirmed, for allegations of sex trafficking. An associate of Gaetz named Joel Greenberg pled guilty to six charges including sex trafficking of a minor, identity theft, stalking and wire fraud. He was sentenced to 11 years in prison in late 2022.

The DOJ informed Gaetz in February 2023 that he would not be charged in connection to the investigation. But, in the wake of that decision, the House Ethics Committee — led by Republicans! — announced it would restart its own investigation, which had been put on the back burner while the feds looked into it.

That investigation is ongoing. In June, the committee released a public letter making clear that they would continue to look into the allegations that the Florida Republican “engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, accepted improper gifts, dispensed special privileges and favors to individuals with whom he had a personal relationship, and sought to obstruct government investigations of his conduct.”

Gaetz has insisted he is innocent — and chalked up the Ethics investigation to the continued targeting of him by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, with whom Gaetz has clashed.

All of [waves arms around wildly] that would seem to be a bridge too far for even Trump to pick Gaetz as the nation’s top cop. Right? WRONG!

I think my favorite reaction to the Gaetz pick was from Idaho GOP Rep. Mike Simpson:

😂😂😂

Once I recovered from the initial shock, I spent some time trying to figure out why Trump would do this. There are three reasons I can think of:

1. Gaetz is a loyal solder who will do what Trump wants — always.

2. To troll liberals whose heads will explode at the very idea of Gaetz as AG

3. To dare Republican Senators to oppose him (and his picks) publicly

It’s that last reason that I think is the real motivation here — mixed, undoubtedly, with a little of #1 and #2.

Trump is not stupid. He knows that for all of the public bowing and scraping from GOP Senators, there are plenty of them who roll their eyes at him. Who think they know better. Who think he is a passing fad.

The vote for John Thune as Senate Majority Leader on Wednesday — over MAGA favorite Rick Scott — functions as further proof of this fact. Behind closed doors and protected by a secret ballot, Republicans turned their nose up at Scott — eliminating him on the first ballot.

By picking Gaetz, Trump is effectively saying: “Vote against him. I dare you.”

Because that vote — and the confirmation hearings that will precede it — will be VERY public. And closely watched by lots and lots of members of the MAGA movement.

There won’t be anywhere for these Trump-skeptical Senators to hide. And Trump knows it.

The Gaetz nomination then functions as the ultimate loyalty test. If you are really for me, then you are for Gaetz. If not, well then I know where you stand.

Here’s how the math will work: Republicans are very likely to control 53 Senate seats next January. (Dave McCormick will win in Pennsylvania although Sen. Bob Casey Jr. has yet to concede.) Which means that Gaetz (and Trump) can afford to lose only 3 GOP votes in order to get the Florida Republican confirmed. (Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie.)

On Wednesday night, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine — the two most likely GOP suspects to oppose Gaetz/Trump — voiced skepticism about the pick.

Collins said she was “shocked” by the Gaetz nomination, adding: “Obviously the president has the right to nominate whomever he wishes, but I’m certain that there will be a lot of questions.”

Murkowski was even more definitive. “I don't think it's a serious nomination for the attorney general,” she told reporters.

If Murkowski and Collins do go on to oppose Gaetz — and that’s not a guarantee at this point — he could lose only one more Republican and still be confirmed since there is a 0% chance any Democrat will vote for him.

Which is a very, very narrow tightrope to walk. But Trump likes a game of political chicken. And that’s exactly what this is.

2. Me + Steve Schmidt = F-U-N

I have known Steve Schmidt since the early 2000s — when he was a press flack for the House Commerce Committee and I was a young political reporter writing for Roll Call newspaper.

Our paths since then have been unconventional — all the best paths are! — but we’ve both stayed in the world of political punditry and strategy.

Steve has built a huge following — on Substack at “The Warning” and on YouTube — with his blunt assessments of American politics.

Tonight Steve and I are hosting a live video in the Substack app at 8pm ET where we will talk Matt Gaetz, what happened in last Tuesday’s election and where Democrats (and Republicans) go from here. We hope you’ll join us and ask your questions in the live video chat.

To join the conversation, you’ll need to download the Substack iPhone or Android app. Go ahead and do that by clicking here. This event is open for ALL subscribers. See you there!

3. Rahm for Chair?

The first major step toward the future for Democrats will when they pick a new chairman of the Democratic National Committee in early 2025. (Current chair Jaime Harrison is not expected to seek a 2nd term.)

And longtime party strategist David Axelrod has an idea on who it should be: Rahm Emanuel.

On the “Hacks on Tap” podcast, Axelrod said that Emanuel, who is currently the Biden administration’s ambassador to Japan, is the perfect fit for a party trying to pick itself up off the mat.

“He is the most skillful, political kind of infighter in the Democratic Party,” said Axelrod. “He’s been a member of Congress, he’s been White House chief of staff, he’s been the mayor of Chicago. Now, he’s been ambassador to Japan, and he ran, in 2005 and [2006], the campaign to take back the House.”

Which would be interesting. Emanuel is, without question, one of the most successful party strategists and fundraisers in the country. But he is also a — um — unique personality that has rubbed lots of people (especially liberals) the wrong way.

Emanuel would likely be the highest profile name in consideration for the job — joining the likes of former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and outgoing new Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy in the list of peoples mentioned as possible Harrison successors.

One less well known name but someone who is getting lots of buzz post-election is Wisconsin Democratic party Chairman Ben Wikler. While Trump won Wisconsin, Wikler helped Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin hold onto her seat and steered the party to downballot gains as well.

No word yet from Emanuel on whether he would be interested…

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’” — Donald Trump to House Republicans today

ONE GOOD CHART

I am thinking of investing in Spirit Airlines…

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 2012, the original collage — by Sir Peter Blake — that graced the cover of The Beatles “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band” album sold at auction for $87,720. (Are you as surprised as I am that it wasn’t sold for more???) Here’s the title track from that album — with “With a Little Help From my Friends” thrown in at the end.

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