Chris Crucial: GOP's Terrible Week

And it's only Wednesday!

(Mitch McConnell)

Welcome back to Chris Crucial — where I break down ONLY the daily stories you will find important or intriguing! Let me know if you enjoy it! 👇

Ok, let’s summarize the week in politics — so far —shall we?

• House Republicans, after MUCH pomp and circumstance, lost a floor vote aimed at impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. (Which, by the way, is a GOOD thing since he hasn’t committed treason or high crimes and misdemeanors!)

• After the Senate GOP leadership backed a BIPARTISAN immigration bill, which also included billions for Israel and Ukraine, the proposal died — largely due to Donald Trump’s opposition to it, and his desire to keep it as a campaign issue against Joe Biden.

• As I noted in a video this morning, Nikki Haley lost to “None of the candidates” — a stalking horse for Trump, who wasn’t on the ballot — by 30 points in the Nevada primary. Oomph.

• The New York Times reported that Republican National Committee Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel will be stepping aside later this month — at the behest of Trump — and likely will be replaced by a man who rose to prominence as a leading voice of the “Stop the Steal” movement around the 2020 election. (Breaking news: There was NO steal.)

And the week is still young!

This sequence of events makes several things clear — again — to me:

1. House Speaker Mike Johnson is Speaker in name only. The combination of the very small majority he is working with and his inability to command loyalty from across the party means he has very little operational power. (He also lost a vote Tuesday night on aid to Israel — by a LOT.)

2. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is on his way out. McConnell clearly misread his conference — and their fear of Trump — when he came out in favor of the bipartisan immigration bill TWO DAYS AGO. That, combined with his recent health issues and Trump’s stated goal of getting rid of him, is a toxic combination for his future as leader.

3. Add up #1 and #2 and you get this: Trump is THE ONLY leader of the Republican party. Haley commands, maybe, 15% of Republicans. The rest of her support — as we have seen in Iowa and New Hampshire — is with independents, unaffiliated voters and Democrats. The BULK of Republicans not only want Trump but believe he will win the general election.

Those conclusions have consequences.

First, there are no Republican “leaders” in Congress. It’s not a thing. I know people have the title but the only person with real sway — as in moving votes and changing minds — is Trump.

From now through the election, the ONLY way to know what Republicans in Congress will or won’t do is to watch what Trump says and does. He rules the party with an iron fist. If he wants something to happen, it will happen. And, as the immigration bill made clear, if he doesn’t want something to happen then, well, it won’t. Period.

That fact is intriguing for this reason: Donald Trump is currently under four indictments. He faces 91 criminal counts. A three-judge panel ruled unanimously earlier this week, that he is not immune from criminal prosecution. He faces the possibility of a fine of up to $370 million — as soon as this week — for overestimating his assets to secure favorable loan terms. He is, by his own admission, likely to be in and out of courts — all over the country — during the entirety of the general election.

And I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Trump falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen, used the powers of the government to try to change the results and then fomented an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol when he didn’t get his way.

And this is the person — out of 330 million people! — to whom Republicans have hitched their electoral wagon. Not Haley, who polls show is crushing President Joe Biden in a general election matchup. Not Ron DeSantis. Not Chris Christie.

Take one big step back — and look at what this means for the future of the Republican party. They have ONE leader. ONE voice. And that voice is not only deeply, er, unpredictable but also faces the VERY real possibility of a criminal conviction sometime in the not-too-distant future.

Whether you like or hate Trump, that is an incredibly dangerous thing for a political party with an eye on its future to do. (Did I mention Trump is 77 years old?!)

Usually, parties cultivate a panoply of voices — giving themselves optionality as they look over the horizon at what the next 5 to 15 years hold. (Take Democrats. Off the top of my head I can think of Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzer, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg…) Not Republicans! (This is in keeping with my argument that the GOP is more a cult of personality than a political party at this point.)

The Republican party is all aboard the Trump train. And, if you ask me, it’s headed toward a derailment.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I fully endorse Kevin McCarthy for RNC Chair. Kevin is well organized and a very high-revenue fundraiser. He will also be well-liked by the RNC Committee.” — Expert troll — and Florida Congressman — Matt Gaetz, who spearheaded the effort to remove McCarthy as House Speaker last year.

FUNNY FACT

Nikki Haley’s defeat at the hands of “None of these candidates” is the first time a candidate has lost to, uh, no one since the option was introduced to the Nevada ballot in 1975. State lawmakers initially approved the inclusion of “None of these candidates” as a way for voters to express their dissatisfaction with their options. Mission accomplished!

SONG OF THE DAY

If you don’t know MJ Lenderman, you need to. (In addition to his solo career, he is a guitarist in the terrific band Wednesday.)

Here’s my favorite of his solo work — “Hangover Game,” which is about Michael Jordan’s, er, “flu” game.

Can I be honest? It takes a lot of work and energy to bring you the important stories of the day… But I think what we are doing here is vitally important!

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Thanks for your support — no matter what form it takes! — Chris