CHRIS CRUCIAL: GUILTY!!!!!!

PLUS: A GOP mega-donor steps off the sidelines

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1. The Verdict (and what it means)

On Thursday, a 12-person jury of his peers found former president Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records as a way to keep payments made to a porn star out of the public eye — in an attempt to improve his chances of being elected in 2016.

The verdict means that Trump is the first former president to be found guilty of a felony. That is history. And not the good kind for Trump.

Trump will, of course, appeal the verdict. He derided it as biased. He is using it to raise money.

His base will rabidly rise to defend him. The Democrats will high-five and insist that justice, finally, has been done.

He will (almost certainly) not go to jail.

All these things we know.

What we don’t know also happens to be the most important question: Is this, finally, the thing that changes the trajectory of the 2024 presidential race?

To date, the contest between Trump and President Joe Biden has been remarkably static. Trump has held a steady — if small — lead nationally. In the 6 swing states, Trump has an edge in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia while Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are too close to call.

Nothing — and I mean NOTHING — has changed that reality. As the Washington Post wrote today (before the verdict):

President Biden has accused Donald Trump of imitating Adolf Hitler, denounced him as a beacon of “hate, anger and revenge” in a prime-time speech watched by one in 10 Americans and built a campaign that spends nearly three times as much as his rival, including about $84 million more so far in general election advertising.

The result is a jump ball of a presidential race that has changed little this year. Trump maintains a slight edge in public polls, with a much better chance at winning the White House than he had in 2020.

That about covers it.

What do we know about how the public is thinking about the verdict — admittedly before the verdict officially came down this afternoon?

The most recent data is from a national NPR/Marist poll. In it, 67% of voters said that the verdict — no matter what it was — would have no impact on their vote this fall. (Roughly one in five — 17% — said it would make them less likely to vote for Trump while 15% said it would make them more likely to do so.)

To which, I say, maybe.

Here’s what I have learned from watching politics for a very long time. (I am old, I am old, I shall wear my trousers rolled.) That what people say in anticipation of some big event is NOT always what they say after said event.

The media coverage from Trump’s conviction will be EVERYWHERE. And it will — or should — focus on the fact that Trump, as I noted above, is the first former president in history to be convicted of a felony.

Does seeing that conviction — by a jury of his peers — change how people see him? Even slightly?

Here’s the thing to remember: We are talking about VERY small margins that are likely to decide the identity of the next president. Tens of thousands of votes (maybe less!), not hundreds of thousands of votes.

So, no, there isn’t going to be a poll in Wisconsin in a week’s time that has the race Biden 56%- Trump 44%. Never going to happen.

But, that does NOT mean that the verdict didn’t matter. Because here’s how close the last two elections were in Wisconsin:

2016

Trump: 1,405,284 votes, Clinton 1,382,536 votes MARGIN: Trump + 22,748

2020

Biden 1,630,866 votes ,Trump 1,610,184 votes MARGIN: Biden + 20,682

The point is that it doesn’t take a whole heck of a lot of votes to shift to make a MASSIVE difference. It’s just 20,000 votes! Out of more than 3 million cast!

Is this conviction the catalyst for that small shift? Too early to say. But just because this isn’t likely to mark a massive change in the race doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter.

2. Trump gets a super PAC boost

Miriam Adelson, one of the biggest Republican donors in the country, made clear Thursday that she plans to spend heavily to elect Donald Trump.

Adelson plans to provide a large sum to Preserve America, a super PAC aimed at electing Trump in the fall. How massive? Here’s Politico on that:

How much Adelson will donate to the super PAC is not clear, though the person familiar with her plans said the group was expecting to spend more than it did four years ago when Adelson and her late husband, Sheldon, donated $90 million to Preserve America. Their funds accounted for about 85 percent of what the organization raised in total.

Adelson’s estimated net worth is north of $3 billion — and she has shown a willingness to spend heavily on GOP causes in the past. In the 2020 election cycle, for example, Miriam and Sheldon Adelson made $218 million in contributions — more than three times the amount donated by the next largest Republican donor.

Adelson’s decision to get on board with Trump’s effort is part of a larger movement of the billionaire class toward the former president, according to Axios. They write:

A flood of elite GOP donors and Trump-curious tycoons have come off the sidelines in recent weeks in support of the former president, who is rapidly closing his fundraising gap with President Biden.

Trump's mega-donors defected in droves after Jan. 6 and Republicans' abysmal performance in the 2022 midterms. After flirting with alternate candidates in the GOP primary, many are getting back behind Trump.

Trump still has considerable financial ground to make up. As of the end of last month, Joe Biden’s campaign had $84.5 million in the bank as compared to $48 million for Trump.

3. Project 2025

I kept thinking about this chart that shows that three-quarters of the American public have no idea what “Project 2025” is.

So, I decided to do something about that. I made a video for my YouTube channel where I walk through what’s in the conservative blueprint for a 2nd Trump term — and why you should a) know about it and b) familiarize yourself with it. Subscribe!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I must respectfully decline your request for a meeting.” — Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts turns down a request from Democratic Senators to meet about Justice Samuel Alito’s refusal to recuse himself from cases involving Donald Trump

ONE GOOD CHART

Want to understand why so many voters cite high inflation as why they aren’t happy about the economy? This chart, via WaPo’s Heather Long, explains it better than anything I have seen.

SONG OF THE DAY

Wilco covering David Bowie’s “Space Oddity.” Yes, please.

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