It’s Friday. It’s the summer. So today’s edition is slightly shorter than usual — because we all want to get the weekend started! The next four months are going to be absolutely wild — and unpredictable. I hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber to allow me to continue doing this sort of work. It’s $6 a month or $60 for the year. Thank you! 🙌
1. On Honeymoons
Anyone who is married knows that a) the honeymoon is super fun and b) it always comes to an end.
At some point, you have to leave the beach and return to the real world. Which is, well, less fun! Logistics. Job stress. Kids’ schedules.
It doesn’t mean life can’t still be good! I deal with ALL of those things with my wife and we are still happy together! (It helps that she is amazing.)
But your honeymoon isn’t predictive of your marriage. Everyone (or almost everyone) has a good honeymoon. A whole lot less people have great marriages for any extended period of time.
Which brings me to the current state of Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign. Which is, without question, in its honeymoon phase right now.
Consider the past week of headlines/stories/narratives:
“Record-breaking Zoom supporting Harris mobilizes white female voters”
“$81M in 24 hours: How the Harris campaign could turn women donors into a force”
“Democratic delegates cite new energy while rallying behind Kamala Harris for president”
“The election just got a lot more interesting. It's inspiring young voters to register.”
“Charli xcx Thinks Kamala Harris Is ‘Brat.’ She May Be Right”
There’s more. WAY more. But you get the idea. Right now, everything Kamala Harris touches turns to political gold. She can do no wrong in the eyes of Democrats and, yes, the media.
(Sidebar: Conservatives have highlighted the overly-positive coverage of Harris this week as evidence that the media really is liberal and biased. I would disagree. While the coverage HAS been hugely favorable for Harris, I think that has more to do with her being a NEW face in the race rather than being a Democrat. The media was very bored of the Biden-Trump race. Harris is like the new kid in 9th grade; everyone wants to meet her and figure out what her deal is.)
It’s not clear to me yet how long that honeymoon will last. Because of the unique circumstances of this race and the timing of the Democratic National Convention, I think we could still be talking about Harris in the honeymoon phase all the way through the end of the convention in late August.
Which would be a very long honeymoon period — especially when you consider the election is only four months away.
And, obviously, Harris (and Democrats) want to make the honeymoon last as long as possible. The Bulwark’s Jonathan V. Last — my favorite political writer — makes the case that it could last all the way until the election:
A 100 day campaign is a huge advantage for Harris, who might be able to surf a wave of enthusiasm straight past Republican attacks. A short time table favors her and hurts Trump.
I am more skeptical. I think Harris could keep up this level of enthusiasm within the Democratic base through election day but it seems very unlikely to me that she will get this level of positive press all the way through November 5.
I believe that at some point — whether it’s mid August or mid September — there will be a deep dive by the media into Harris’ record. Cases she prosecuted in San Francisco. Cases she weighed in on as California Attorney General. Votes she took in the Senate. Tie-breaking votes she cast as vice president. Positions she staked out during her 2020 presidential campaign.
And that deep dive will not look great for Harris. (A consultant once told me the worst job you could have at the state level is AG because, inevitably, you chose not to charge someone or let someone out early who went on to do something terrible.)
This ad, which Pennsylvania Republican Senate nominee Dave McComick posted online earlier this week, gives you a hint of what that look at Harris’ record might translate to in the campaign context:
Could I be convinced that by the time the Harris honeymoon ends her brand is strong enough — as a next generation leader, a historic nominee, a fighter etc. — that she can withstand the media scrutiny on her record? I could!
But I DO think that assuming that the next 100 days of the campaign will go exactly the way the first four days of the Harris campaign have gone is a mistake. I think such a scenario is very unlikely!
Honeymoons always end. Real life intrudes. And success — in politics (and marriage) — is in how you weather the inevitable ups and downs that come your way.
2. JD Vance on cats — and cat ladies
In a sign that the Trump campaign knows that JD Vance’s comments about “childless cat ladies” is causing problem, the Ohio Senator — and newly minted VP nominee — went on with right-wing talker Megyn Kelly on Friday to try to, uh, clear things up.
To quickly rewind: In a 2021 interview with then Fox News star Tucker Carlson, Vance, who was not in elected office at the time, dismissed leading Democrats — including Kamala Harris — as “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too.”
Which, not great!
Vance insisted in his chat with Kelly that — surprise, surprise — the media was twisting his words and/but he meant exactly what he said.
“I know the media wants to attack me and wants me to back down on this, Megyn, but the simple point that I made is that having children, becoming a father, becoming a mother, I really do think it changes your perspective in a pretty profound way,” said Vance.
He added: “There’s a deeper point here, Megyn. It’s not a criticism of people who don’t have children. I explicitly said in my remarks — despite the fact the media has lied about this — that this is not about criticizing people who for various reasons didn’t have kids. This is about criticizing the Democratic Party for becoming antifamily and antichildren.”
Vance also sought to clarify his feelings on cats in the interview: “Obviously it was a sarcastic comment. I’ve got nothing against cats.”
But how does he feel about dogs? Named Cricket?
The Kelly interview put an exclamation mark on a brutal week for Vance. This whole “cat ladies” story had made national headlines — and led to the likes of Jennifer Aniston denouncing Vance. There’s also the whole “couch sex” thing. And don’t even get me started on dolphin porn.
3. AMA!
I did an hour-long livestream on my YouTube channel today — taking questions about the Harris Veepstakes, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Senate races and Jon Stewart. If you haven’t subscribed to my YouTube channel, now is the time! Join 34,000 other people and become a subscriber today!
NOTABLE QUOTABLE
“She is not going to win this election and she is going to have a very difficult time winning unless she begins to speak forcefully about the needs of the long-neglected working class of this country.” — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on Vice President Kamala Harris
ONE GOOD CHART
The four major American sports — broken down by revenue stream (courtesy of Jon Schwabish)
SONG OF THE DAY
One of my favorite bands of the late 1980s was Jane’s Addiction. I LOVED them. The four original members — Perry Farrell, Dave Navarro, Eric Avery and Stephen Perkins — released their first new music in three decades this week. The song is called “Imminent Redemption.” And it rocks.
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Kamala will likely ride a wave of enthusiasm through to election day, because it is a short interval and Democrats are ready for positivity and possibility. Kamala will heed the words of the Bernie Sanders wing of the Party, in a way that Hillary Clinton never did, and should have. She has the endorsement of Barack and Michelle Obama, which is a huge lift. She will pick a complementary vice presidential candidate. What those of us must do who never want to see the bulky, menacing Donald John Trump behind the Resolute Desk again…is turn out and vote. Vote in epic numbers. We can do this!
"This is about criticizing the Democratic Party for becoming antifamily and antichildren.”
Wait, which party killed the expansion of the Child Tax Credit?