CHRIS CRUCIAL: I already know how the debate will turn out 🔮

PLUS: A tough chart for Biden

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1. Trump’s pre-debate spin

Donald Trump won’t be on a debate stage with President Joe Biden for 8 more days. But, he’s already sowing the seeds to explain away something less than total victory in the encounter.

Those excuses have — and will — take two forms.

1. If Biden is something other than comatose — which he almost certainly will be! — Trump will suggest that the president was on something (I am talking about drugs here, people) to get him to be more alert and energetic.

   Here’s Trump on Tuesday at a rally in Wisconsin: “Is anybody going to watch the debate? He's going to be so pumped up. He's going to be pumped up. You know, all that stuff that was missing about a month ago from the White House. What happened? Who left it? Somebody left it.”

   There’s going to be a lot more where that came from over the next 10 days or so. How do I know? Because Trump has already played the Biden-is-on-drugs card this year.

   “I think what happened is you know that white stuff that they happened to find, which happened to be cocaine in the White House, I don’t know, I think something’s going on there, because I watched this State of the Union, and he was all jacked up at the beginning,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early April.

   He didn’t have any evidence then. And he won’t have any evidence this time either. But trust me, he’s going to say it.

2. If Trump is not declared the outright winner, he will insist that he was ganged up on — that the “fake news” media was working with Biden the whole debate.

   Again, Trump pre-floated this argument on Tuesday night. “I'll probably be negotiating with three people, but that's okay,” he said in Wisconsin. “I've done that before. I'll be debating three people instead of one, instead of one half of a person.”

   I DO think that this has always been part of the Trump calculation. Agreeing to a debate hosted by CNN, the network, more than any other, that he has singled out for scorn. Agreeing to a set of debate rules that, I believe, clearly favor Biden.

   It’s like he’s building in the “it was rigged and biased the whole time!” excuse before he or Biden ever utter a word on stage. Almost as if, knowing that the caricature he has created of Biden — “this guy doesn’t even know he is alive!” — has grossly lowered expectations for the incumbent, Trump is creating avenues to declare victory no matter what.

None of this should surprise anyone who has been watching Trump over, well, his entire life. He has always been a guy who likes to leave himself as many outs/excuses as possible. This is in pursuit of his broader goal: Being able to paint himself as a winner at all times and in all circumstances.

So, if the debate isn’t a total walkover for Trump, it’s because Biden was on drugs. Or the media saved the president. Or Biden was wearing an ear piece. Or something.

It’s ALWAYS something.

2. A very tough chart for Joe Biden

This, from Gallup, is Biden’s problem in a nutshell:

Despite a number of economic indicators suggesting that things are, in fact, getting better, people are deeply pessimistic about the direction of the economy. And that feeling is getting worse, not better.

Why? Inflation, mostly. With some gas prices mixed in. And a little bit of vibes sprinkled on top. Maybe more than a little.

What can Biden DO about, well, that? Good question. He can hope inflation and gas prices trend downward as the election gets closer. (In truth, it’s very hard for a president to heavily impact either of those measures. Read this on that.)

The “vibes” issue is even harder to combat if you are Biden. How the hell do you convince people who think the economy is getting worse that it actually isn’t — without sounding like you don’t understand and empathize with their point of view? The danger of sounding out of touch is VERY high.

It’s charts like the one above that make me think that we will head into the fall with Trump being a slight to moderate favorite over Biden. And I am not sure how much Biden can do about that fact.

3. JVL on Juneteenth

I struggle to write well or thoughtfully about Juneteenth.

But, Jonathan V. Last over at The Bulwark, who is a white, middle-aged guy from the Northeast like me, did an awesome job commemorating the day in his piece. You should read the whole thing but here’s the part I liked best:

I remember a camping trip to Tennessee when I was 12. We stopped in a general store which was festooned with Confederate flags and I was as shocked as if I’d stumbled into a pack of little green men walking in circles around a flying saucer. Seeing people who venerated the Confederacy and slavery wasn’t merely exotic. It was wholly, completely alien. It had never occurred to me that such people existed.

Youth, like gravity, dilates time. When you’re young, anything that took place more than five minutes ago is pre-historic. So to the 12-year-old me, the Civil War, Aristotle, and Stonehenge all occupied roughly the same spot on the space-time continuum.

But another part of why I was so shocked to discover racism is that I had been privileged not to have been forced to notice it.

Yup. That.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I’m your Republican nominee.” — Virginia state Sen. John McGuire, declaring victory over GOP Rep. Bob Good. (The race hasn’t been called yet.)

ONE GOOD CHART

I feel seen.

SONG OF THE DAY

Steven Hyden is my favorite music critic. So when he recommends something, I listen — literally! His latest rec is the band This is Lorelei and its new album “Box for Buddy, Box for Star.” This is “Dancing in the Club” off of it.

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