CHRIS CRUCIAL: Is Iowa a swing state now? 🌽

PLUS: Vivek gets his own Fox show

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1. Iowa????

Over the weekend, the Des Moines Register released a new statewide poll that showed Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by only 4 points in Iowa.

This was — and is — eye-catching for several reasons:

a) A DMR poll in the spring showed Trump with an 18-point lead over President Joe Biden in the state

b) Donald Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016

c) The poll was conducted by J. Ann Selzer, widely regarded as one of the best pollsters in the country and someone who has repeatedly nailed key elections in the Hawkeye State.

Interesting, right???

So do we need to start talking about 8 swing states — the usual 7 plus Iowa?

Probably not.

Let’s dig into some numbers.

In 2022, GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds won reelection by 19 points over the Democratic nominee. That same year, GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley was reelected to an 8th(!) term by 12 points.

Two years before that, Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won reelection 52%-45% — almost mirroring Trump’s margin in the state.

The last truly close race in Iowa was in 2018 when Reynolds was seeking a first full term. (She had ascended to the governorship after Gov. Terry Branstad had become the U.S. ambassador to China for the Trump administration.)

In that race Reynolds ran against wealthy businessman Fred Hubbell. It was a bad year for Republicans in the Midwest — GOP candidate lost gubernatorial races in Illinois, Kansas, Michigan and Wisconsin — but Reynolds managed to hang on, winning 50%-48%.

That recent history does not bode well for Harris — or Democrats. What it suggests is that unless the national environment is clearly tilted toward Democrats, Iowa is probably a mid-to-high single digit win for the GOP presidential candidate. And, at least right now, the national landscape doesn’t look to be heavily leaning in either party’s direction.

Given that, the four-point Trump edge at the moment isn’t as crazy as it might sound. It’s possible that the DMR poll caught Harris right at the height of her popularity in Iowa. “This poll may be catching newly energized voters who thought they would sit out the election at the time our June poll was taken,” Selzer told the Register.

And, Harris’ 43% in the poll is right around what Hillary Clinton got in 2016 (42%) and just slightly below what Joe Biden took in 2020 (45%).

Does the Harris campaign (or the Trump campaign) believe Iowa is really a swing state? We can answer that question by asking when the last time the candidates appeared in the state — and whether either side is spending real money on TV there.

As best as I can tell, Harris hasn’t been in Iowa since last July. Trump hasn’t been there since the start of the year when he won the state’s first-in-the-nation caucus.

Neither campaign has bought any TV ads in Iowa.

So, yeah. I don’t think Iowa is, really, in play. If/when Harris or Trump goes there, come back and talk to me.

My guess? I think the race is likely mostly a replay of 2020 where Trump wins by somewhere between 6 and 8 points. Which might make some Democrats think they should have invested there.

But, they’d be almost certainly wrong. Because it’s not that hard for a Democrat to get to 45% in Iowa. It’s extremely hard for a Democrat to get to 49%/50%.

2. Vivek gets what he wants

Vivek Ramaswamy didn’t run for president in 2024 because he thought he would win. Or even really try to win while he was running — since that would have meant going after sugar daddy Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, which he was never willing to do.

Why did Vivek run then? For the #brand, of course. Almost no one knew who he was two years ago. Today he’s a household name in Trumpworld — a status rewarded on by Fox News on Monday.

Ramaswamy will host a roundtable talk show this fall on Fox’s streaming service — Fox Nation — as well as on its cable airwaves.

“We are excited to launch this new series showcasing Mr. Ramaswamy’s thoughtful and unique perspective on the state of American politics after his meteoric rise over the last year,” said the head of Fox Nation in a statement.

Because, of course.

It remains to be seen whether Ramaswamy will become a permanent talking head (a role to which he appears to have been built in a lab for) or re-enter politics.

The Fox show is only a limited run. And there could be two potential appealing opening for Ramaswamy in Ohio in the next few years.

The first would come in November if Ohio Sen. JD Vance is elected as vice president. That would create a vacancy in the Senate that Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine would fill.

“To be frank, I would strongly consider it, if I were asked to serve,” Ramaswamy told NBC News’ Hallie Jackson in mid July. “But I would also want to have a serious conversation with President Trump about the other ways I could have an impact on the country.”

Ramaswamy is also mentioned as a possible successor to DeWine when the governor is term limited out of office in 2027 — although there are a long line of Republican officials waiting to run for that job.

And, as he, of course, mentioned, he could well be in the running for a Cabinet spot in the next Trump administration.

In short: Vivek isn’t going to go away. At least not any time soon.

3. Please stop questioning the Trump assassination attempts

There are any number of very fair attacks on Donald Trump: His handling of Covid-19, his questioning of the 2020 election, January 6, his pledge to be a “dictator” on day one of his second term and on and on.

What should NOT be something on which people attack Trump is for the two instances in which shooters either attempted or planned to assassinate him.

I explain why in the latest video on my YouTube channel.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“And no one is even trying to assassinate Biden/Kamala.” — Elon Musk, in a now-deleted tweet

ONE GOOD CHART

The population of Los Angeles County is 9.6 million. Which is larger than the total population of all but 7 states. Amazing. This map comes from a great Instagram account called Fan Maps. Very much worth a follow.

SONG OF THE DAY

M. Ward has made a WHOLE lot of music. Which can be daunting if you are trying to get into his catalogue. Luckily for all of us, he has put together a compilation of some of his best music called “For Beginners: The Best of M. Ward.” It’s a great listen. This is “Cry,” a cover of Godley & Creme’s 1985 hit.

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