CHRIS CRUCIAL: It's about to get VERY ugly

PLUS: The GOP convention, 1 chart

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I am driving up to Cooperstown, New York today so this is a shortened version of the newsletter. Have a wonderful weekend. And, obviously, if news breaks over the next 48 hours I will bring the “so what” and the “now what” of it!

1. Joe Biden vs the party

Two contradictory things are happening at once right now.

First there is President Joe Biden, sick with Covid but defiant about his future plans.

In a statement released Friday morning, Biden offered little evidence that he is considering leaving the race.

“I look forward to getting back on the campaign trail next week to continue exposing the threat of Donald Trump’s Project 2025 agenda while making the case for my own record and the vision that I have for America: one where we save our democracy, protect our rights and freedoms, and create opportunity for everyone,” Biden said.

His top campaign official — Jen O’Malley Dillon — echoed that we-are-in-this-to-win-this sentiment in an appearance on “Morning Joe” Friday.

"Absolutely the president is in this race,” said Dillon. “Joe Biden is more committed than ever to beat Donald Trump, and we believe on this campaign we are built for the close election that we are in, and we see the path forward.”

Which is pretty definitive!

But then there is the other force: More and more Democratic elected officials are going public with calls for Biden to step aside in the 2024 race.

By mid-afternoon Friday, more than a dozen Democratic Members of Congress had newly announced their opposition to Biden remaining as the party’s presidential nominee.

The two most critical were New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich and California Rep. Zoe Lofgren. Lofgren is the second close ally of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to go public against Biden in as many days — a clear sign that Pelosi believes Biden has passed his political expiration date. Heinrich, who is running for a third term this fall, sits in a state that Donald Trump’s campaign insists could be competitive — a belief affirmed by Heinrich’s decision.

What we have at the moment then is a good old-fashioned game of chicken. Biden is refusing to yield, daring his party to try to throw him out. The party — or at least some of its more prominent members — seems increasingly willing to do just that.

If both sides keep their foot on the gas — to extend this somewhat-tortured metaphor a bit further — the potential for ugliness gets much, much higher.

To date, the vast majority of major figures in the party — Barack Obama, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Pelosi — have chosen to convey their concerns about Biden’s viability privately, either through intermediaries or directly to the president.

That strategy was — and is — aimed at allowing Biden to leave the race with his dignity intact (or as close to it as is possible at this point). It’s kind of like when your company says “Hey, we don’t want you to work here anymore. But go find another job and then we will announce you are leaving.” It’s a grace note, a “thank you” for years of service.

The problem is that Biden doesn’t appear to have taken the hint. He isn’t going quietly. He doesn’t appear to want to go at all.

Which means that the same people who were trying to gently guide him to an off-ramp may well have to start crashing their car into his to force him off the road. (Lot of metaphors here!)

Look. I continue to believe a) there is a better than 50-50 chance that Biden ultimately leaves the ticket and b) that is the best result for Democrats who want to beat Trump.

But, how you get there can matters when it comes to where you go from there. And the nastier this gets, the more likely you are dealing with hurt feelings — and more — all the way into the fall.

2. The Republican Convention, in 1 chart

I LOVE this from the New York Times: A graphic showing which words were most commonly used in speeches over the four days of the GOP convention. Check it out:

What jumped out to me? “Biden” wasn’t said all that much — a reflection, I think, of a belief among Republicans that he won’t be the Democratic nominee much longer. And what about “abortion” — long one of the pillars of the GOP platform? Didn’t even make the list!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Has anyone seen ‘The Silence of the Lambs’? The late, great Hannibal Lecter. He’d love to have you for dinner.” — Donald Trump, accepting the Republican presidential nomination

ONE GOOD CHART

The question of what happens next if Biden drops out is on everyone’s mind. This chart — via NBC News — does a great job of answering it.

SONG OF THE DAY

I didn’t know much about Los Campesinos! when I came across this rave review of their new album from Pitchfork. I spent a bunch of my drive today listening to it. I really dig it. Here’s “The Coin-Op Guillotine”:

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