CHRIS CRUCIAL: It's the Blue Wall, stupid 🧱🧱🧱

PLUS: Governor Katie Porter?

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1. MI + WI + PA = President Harris

It’s easy to overthink elections. They go on FOREVER. And they are covered — including by me — in granular detail day in and day out. You can make yourself crazy thinking about all of the various permutations of the race and the electoral map.

But, sometimes it’s useful to take one big step back and look at where we’ve been, where we are and where we’re going over the next 34 days.

I did that this afternoon. And what I concluded — or, more accurately, reminded myself of — is that the story of the 2016 electoral map is the story of the 2020 electoral map is the story of the 2024 electoral map.

By that, I mean this: Donald Trump won in 2016 because he broke through the longtime Democratic stranglehold on the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden beat Trump four years later because he rebuilt the Blue Wall, claiming all three for Democrats.

And, after hours fiddling with the 270towin map tool, I just keep coming back to this reality for Harris: It’s all about the Blue Wall. Again.

The math is pretty simple. If Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she is almost certainly the next president of the United States. (Obviously, this requires Harris to carry Nebraska’s 2nd district. But, I think she will do that relatively comfortably.)

And, guess what? If the election today that’s exactly what would happen. Here’s the Washington Post polling averages in the 7 swing states:

Under that scenario, Harris would win either 270-268 (if Trump wins Nevada) or 275-263 (if Harris wins Nevada).

Yes, that would be the narrowest electoral margin since George W. Bush beat Al Gore 271-268 but it would still be a win for Harris.

Now, here’s the thing: If Harris loses just ONE of those Blue Wall states, her path gets much, much harder. Let’s say she comes up short in Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes — the least of the Blue Wall trio. That map looks like this:

Yes, if Harris won Georgia or North Carolina or Arizona she would get over 270. But, it’s sort of hard for me to imagine a scenario — nationally — where Harris loses Wisconsin but somehow wins North Carolina or even Georgia. Which would mean that it would come down to Arizona, which has voted for a Democrat for president only twice in the last 12 presidential elections (1992 and 2020).

That math is even more complicated if Harris wins Wisconsin but loses either Michigan (15 electoral votes) or Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes).

If Harris, say, lost Pennsylvania (and won Michigan and Wisconsin), the map gets a lot harder for her very quickly:

Now winning Arizona, North Carolina or Georgia isn’t enough for Harris. She would need to win two of those states or one of them plus Nevada.

It really is all about the Blue Wall. Again.

The recent electoral history of those three states adds even more intrigue and reinforces their importance.

Consider this: In every presidential election since 1988, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have voted for the same candidate. And, in 6 of those 8 elections, the candidate who won those three states won the election. (George W. Bush won in 2000 and got reelected in 2004 while losing all three.)

What that history suggests is that the Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin tend to move in a block. Where one goes, the others follow.

Right now, that is VERY good news for Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the White House.

2. Gov. Katie Porter?

The 2024 election isn’t over yet but the positioning for 2026 has already begun!

Witness outgoing California Rep. Katie Porter, who rose to national hero status among liberals for her whiteboard takedowns of corporate executives who appeared before Congress.

Porter lost in the Senate primary earlier this year to Rep. Adam Schiff — she finished third with 15% of the vote — but is clearly interested in running statewide again.

In response to a statewide poll that showed her in first place among a crowded field of candidates and potential candidates for the open seat race (Gov. Gavin Newsom is term limited), Porter took to X in a not-so-subtle wink to her future plans.

“In Congress, I’ve stood up to special interests and shown that government can deliver for families by doing things differently,” she wrote. “I’m grateful that Californians recognize we need fresh voices in our politics who are not afraid to call out nonsense, from Republicans or Democrats. Our next Governor needs to be laser focused on solving Californians’ biggest challenges, most of all cost of living.”

👀

Before we get too far down the Porter for governor road, it’s worth noting that while she led in the poll she was only at 14% — suggesting that a) it’s very hard to get known statewide in California and b) lots and lots of people haven’t made up their minds on a candidate just yet.

But, even if voters aren’t paying attention, the 2026 race is underway. Late last month four Democratic contenders for the job — Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Controller Betty Yee and state Sen. Toni Atkins — appeared at a candidates forum.

Given California’s politics, a Democrat is almost certain to be the next governor. And virtually every ambitious politician in the state — including former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — is expected to run. Current Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is also mentioned as a possible candidate.

Porter has not yet officially signaled her interest in the race or her plans for her political future. But would someone NOT interested in the governor’s job tweet what she did on Wednesday? I think not.

3. Is Ted Cruz in trouble?

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has shifted its rating of the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” — a recognition of the increasing competitiveness in the contest between GOP Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Colin Allred.

So, could Cruz actually lose? And what would have to happen in the next 34 days to make it, uh, happen? I made a video on my YouTube channel today running through how Cruz could lose. Watch and subscribe!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“In these unprecedented times of misinformation and political violence, everyone from left-wing activists to Silicon Valley megadonors attempted to dissuade us from endorsing Joe Biden at this moment in time.” — The Onion endorses Joe Biden for president 😂😂😂

ONE GOOD CHART

Jimmy Carter is the first president ever to live to 100. How does his longevity compare to the men who came before and after him as president? This terrific Washington Post graphic answers that question.

SONG OF THE DAY

For the first time in 16(!) years, The Cure is releasing a new album. It comes out November 1. The first song off the record “Songs of a Lost World” is titled “Alone.” And, yes, it has an epically long intro before Robert Smith starts singing. Perfect.

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