CHRIS CRUCIAL: Joe Biden's black voter problem

PLUS: Chaos in Indiana!

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1. Joe Biden and the Black vote

It is beyond debate that without African American voters, Joe Biden would NOT be president right now.

Biden lost, badly, in the first few contests of the 2020 race. He put ALL of his hope on South Carolina and its sizable black population to save his candidacy.

Which is exactly what happened. Black voters made up more than 60% of the South Carolina Democratic primary electorate. And Biden won them by 44(!) points.

That win propelled him to a series of Super Tuesday wins. Then Covid-19 hit. The country locked down. The primary ended. And Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.

In the general election that year, black voters, again, powered Biden to a victory. They made up 13% of the overall electorate and Biden won them 87% to 12% over Donald Trump.

All of which was on my mind when I read this story in the New York Times on Monday: “Black Farmers in Georgia Cool to Biden, Reflecting a Bigger Challenge.” And this paragraph in particular:

Black voters are key to Mr. Biden’s re-election, but many say they are disenchanted with the president and are considering voting for Mr. Trump in November…Polls show that Mr. Biden’s support among a constituency that powered him to victory in 2020 has been shaky in critical swing states like Georgia, where Black farmers are a small but important voting bloc that is feeling let down.

On that polls point: It’s true. Consider just a few recent surveys:

• A CBS News/YouGov poll among black voters: Biden 81%, Trump 18%

• A USA Today/Suffolk poll of black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania showed Biden at 56% in the former and 54% in the latter — drop-offs of nearly 40 points from where he was in 2020.

• A Pew poll showed Biden leading Trump 77% to 18% among black voters nationally.

• A New York Times/Siena poll of six swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — showed Trump winning more than 1 in 5 black votes.

Now, to be clear, Trump is not doing nearly as well as he claims to be doing among black voters. (He has taken to saying on the campaigning trail that he is winning among them. He is not.)

But, historically, if Trump is able to get 18% of the black vote (as he is right now), he will have done extremely well for himself.

Here are the last six presidential elections among black voters:

2020 (black voters made up 13% of the overall electorate)

Biden 87%

Trump 12%

2016 (12%)

Clinton 89%

Trump 8%

2012 (13%)

Obama 93%

Romney 6%

2008 (13%)

Obama 95%

McCain 4%

2004 (11%)

Kerry 88%

Bush 11%

2000 (10%)

Gore 90%

Bush 9%

In fact, if you go back even further, you see how anomalous Trump’s 18% among black voters would be.

The best performance among black voters by a Republican presidential nominee in the (recent) past was Gerald Ford in 1976 — when he won 17% of the African American vote against Jimmy Carter. Four years later, Ronald Reagan won 14% of the black vote against Carter.

In recent elections, single digits has been more of the standard. If Trump could get 18% of the black vote, he would double what George W. Bush got while winning the White House in 2000. And he would more than double his own performance in 2016 — when he beat Hillary Clinton.

The question — and it is one of THE key questions of the election — is whether black voters will actually pull the lever for Trump. History suggests they will not. That, ultimately, 9 out of 10 black voters will line up behind the Democratic nominee.

Of course, historical election results are predictive right up until they aren’t anymore. And Trump has shown an ability to remake coalitions in this country. It’s how he got elected in 2016.

Biden desperately needs to find a way to rally black voters to his cause. The reemergence of former President Barack Obama of late may be the best way to make that happen. It’s unclear, however, how much time Obama wants to spend on the campaign trail.

Back in the spring, CNN reported this of Obama:

His engagement with the Biden campaign is expected to intensify as the general election kicks into higher gear, and aides said he has already agreed to several campaign appearances before November as he works to help rebuild Biden’s winning coalition from 2020.

Biden needs Obama now more than ever.

2. Indiana GOP blows up

If you haven’t heard of Micah Beckwith yet, get ready to hear a lot more about him in the coming weeks and months.

Beckwith is a conservative pastor who claimed the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor in Indiana over the weekend, scoring a MASSIVE upset over state Rep. Julie McGuire, who had the backing of, among others, former president Donald Trump.

(Sidebar: In Indiana, the LG nominee is chosen by 1,800 party delegates — not in a statewide primary.)

Beckwith has a history of making controversial statements. Like this one about January 6, 2021 — which he said he was told by God while praying: “Micah, I sent those riots to Washington. What you saw yesterday [Jan. 6] was my hand at work.”

As the Associated Press put it:

[Beckwith] is known for his far-right stances on gender, sexuality and abortion. He cast himself as a political outsider who would keep the governor’s office in check, limit property taxes and oppose school efforts to support the LGBTQ+ community.

Senator Mike Braun, who is the GOP nominee for governor and backed McGuire to serve as his second-in-command, immediately sought to distance himself from Beckwith.

“There’s no doubt about this. I’m in charge,” Braun said. “And Micah is going to be someone that works with me. And if he doesn’t … it will probably not be as fruitful in terms of what we can get done.”

Look. This is still Indiana. And Braun is still favored to win the governorship this November. (Democrats haven’t won a statewide office in Indiana in 12 years.)

But Beckwith’s victory has already had consequences. On Monday, the Indiana GOP chair, who was hand-selected by the state’s governor, stepped down. As did the party’s executive director.

And, Beckwith is a free radical in the race. Braun will try to stay as far away from him as possible. Democrats will try to tie Beckwith and Braun at every turn.

In short: This race just got a little more interesting.

3. Wes Moore 2028?

On Monday, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore did something that will draw national attention to the state: He pardoned 175,000 people who had been convicted of marijuana-related misdemeanor crimes.

“We aren’t nibbling around the edges,” Moore said in a press conference announcing the move. “We are taking actions that are intentional, that are sweeping and unapologetic.”

The move by Moore was designed to come on the eve of Juneteenth, which falls on Wednesday.

Moore is the country’s only black governor. He is regularly talked about as a rising star within the Democratic party and as someone who could run for president as soon as 2028.

Moore is currently in the middle of his first term. He is up for reelection in 2026 — a race he is likely to be heavily favored to win.

If you don’t know much about Moore, it’s worth reading his inaugural address from early 2023.

4. The debate rules favor Joe Biden

Over the weekend, CNN released the rules that will govern the June 27 debate between Biden and Trump.

I think, overall, the rules are good news for Biden. I explained why in today’s daily video on my YouTube channel. Subscribe!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“We've finally seen the puppet master Obama pulling the strings on his puppet Joe Biden.” — Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake

ONE GOOD CHART

Twitter/X isn’t the place it once was. But, for people who want political news, it’s still the place to be, according to new data from Pew.

SONG OF THE DAY

I’ve always been an M. Ward fan — going back to his 2006 “Post-War” album. I will admit I didn’t know the music of Dr. Dog until I came across this duet. It’s sweet and beautiful.

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