CHRIS CRUCIAL: Kamala's no-brainer VP pick 🧠

PLUS: RFK Jr. + and a 🐻

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1. Don’t overthink this, Kamala

At some point between now and Tuesday morning, we will find out the identity of Vice President Kamala Harris’ pick for vice president.

Here’s my advice to the Harris team: Don’t overthink this.

Since the start of Harris’ whirlwind presidential campaign, which started 15 days ago!, the name at the top of every VP list has been Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

Over the weekend, however, there was some suggestion that the Shapiro pick was in jeopardy. This was primarily centered on a POLITICO piece that reported on the long-standing tensions between Shapiro and Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman.

The story, which you should absolutely read, amounts to this: Fetterman (and his people) think that Shapiro is a) too ambitious and b) too moderate for Harris to pick.

The story got enough pickup that Mark Halperin, who runs a Substack called “Wide World of News,” dedicated a whole video conversation to the alleged turning of the tide against Shapiro.

This is, to be blunt, a dumb criticism of Shapiro.

Let me break down each element separately.

First, the idea that Shapiro is too personally ambitious to be a fit as Harris’ VP. Uh, have the people making this critique ever met an actual politician? Especially one who is in the mix to be vice president?

Like, politicians are ambitious. And, in that, they aren’t any different than us! When you got your first job out of school did you think to yourself: Well, I’m good! I can keep this exact same job until I retire?

Of course not! Ambition is not a bad thing! It’s critical to success. And, in this case, Shapiro trying to kick ass as the VP nominee (or the vice president) almost certainly accrues to Harris’ benefit.

Second, there is the “Shapiro is too moderate!” hit. Again, this makes zero political sense.

The attack on Harris that, I think, works best is that she is nothing but a San Francisco liberal. That when she ran for president, she took a number of uber-liberal positions — banning fracking, mandatory buyback for assault weapons, Medicare For All — that she has subsequently run away from.

Putting someone who ran as — and has governed as — a moderate Democrat has the symbolic effect of moderating the ticket. It’s a MAJOR sign to swing voters who may be on the fence about Harris that she is not some wacko liberal.

Are there real criticisms of Shapiro? Absolutely. I can buy the argument — although I am not sure I do buy the argument — that his unapologetic defenses of Israel may rankle already-rankled younger voters.

But, do I think that when given the choice between Harris-Shapiro and Trump-Vance those same young voters are going to either a) vote for Trump or b) stay home? I do not.

Here’s the thing: Shapiro is an absolute no-brainer VP pick (even with the criticism). And I will explain why.

This is what the 2024 electoral map looks like if Donald Trump wins all the states he won in 2020 as well Pennsylvania (and Georgia):

Just to be clear: Harris could WIN Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin and still lose to Trump if she loses Pennsylvania.

Now, give Harris a win in Pennsylvania. The map suddenly opens up with all sorts of paths to 270 for her.

For example, she could lose Nevada and Wisconsin and still win:

Or, she could lose Nevada and Arizona and still win:

Putting Shapiro on the ticket as the VP doesn’t ensure that Harris wins Pennsylvania. Vice presidential nominees matter, at most, on the margins. Most voters are making their choice based on the name at the top of the ticket, not the second-in-command.

But, Pennsylvania could well be decided at those very margins! The 538 polling average in the state has Harris ahead of Trump by a single point: 45.5%-44.5%

Enter Shapiro. In May, a Siena College/New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer poll showed that 57% of Pennsylvania voters approved of the job Shapiro was doing as governor as opposed to 25% who disapproved. Those numbers included more than 4 in 10 Republicans who said they approved of the job Shapiro was doing.

This is not hard.

Harris HAS to win Pennsylvania to have ANY wiggle room in her march to 270. Shapiro is the popular sitting governor of Pennsylvania. The end. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk. 😂😂😂

2. The Squad faces another possible defeat

On Tuesday, Missouri voters will head to the polls. (Yes, there are still congressional primaries happening!)

The most high-profile (and expensive) race on the ballot in the Show Me State will be in the 1st district where 2nd term Democratic Rep. Cori Bush faces a serious primary challenge from St. Louis county prosecutor Wesley Bell.

Bush has drawn criticism from pro-Israel forces within the party for her outspoken critique of the treatment of Palestinian citizens and for her House resolution calling for “an immediate de-escalation and cease-fire in Israel and occupied Palestine.” Bush has also described the Israeli invasion of Gaza as a genocide.

A super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has spent more than $9 million on ads promoting Bell and attacking Bush. (Total outside spending in the race is now north of $18 million.)

In many ways, the race is a replay of New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s defeat earlier this summer in a Democratic primary. AIPAC spent more than $14 million to beat Bowman.

Bush, like Bowman, is a member of the so-called “Squad” — a group of liberal Democrats in the House led, informally, by New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez.

In a piece endorsing Bell, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial board bashed Bush for her Squad membership, writing:

For the past four years, the district has been in the hands of U.S. Rep. Cori Bush, a Democrat who has generally appeared less interested in working that system for the good of her constituents than attacking it on behalf of a small, hard-left klatch of lawmakers — ‘the Squad’ — who are good at getting headlines but bad at actually accomplishing anything.

There has been very limited polling in the race. A survey done for an AIPAC-aligned super PAC at the end of July had Bell at 48% to Bush’s 42%.

Bowman was the first (and only) Democratic House incumbent to lose a primary in 2024. Recently, Virginia GOP Rep. Bob Good had his primary defeat affirmed via a recount. Earlier this year, Alabama Republican Rep. Jerry Carl lost a member vs member primary fight to fellow GOP Rep. Barry Moore.

3. RFK Jr., a 🐻 and a staged bicycle accident in Central Park

We have found the weirdest story of the 2024 election (so far). It involves a dead bear and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is, still, running as an independent for president.

First, read the New Yorker profile that contains the dead bear story. Then watch me explain it all — and how RFK Jr. is in the midst of a major fade in the race — in my daily video for my YouTube channel.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I wasn’t asking him to step down. I was asking for a campaign that can win. And I wasn’t seeing that on the horizon.” — California Rep. Nancy Pelosi on Joe Biden. Ice cold.

ONE GOOD CHART

All of the major stock indexes in the U.S. plummeted Monday on worries that a global recession might be in the offing.

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 1966, a little band called The Beatles released “Revolver.” My current favorite tune off of that album is “I’m Only Sleeping.” What’s yours?

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