CHRIS CRUCIAL: Nate Silver's model flips for Harris 🙃

PLUS: Big Georgia ballot ruling!

Sep 20, 2024

1. As the model turns

For the last month (or so), allies of Donald Trump — and Republicans more generally — have repeatedly cited Nate Silver’s election model as proof that the former president was (still) likely to win the presidency.

To be sure: Silver’s model was more bullish on Trump’s chances than other election models like 538 or The Economist or Decision Desk HQ.

But, no longer. Here’s the latest prediction from Nate — as of this morning:

Now, before we go too far — it’s absolutely worth noting that a 51% chance of winning the election isn’t exactly massive. And, as Nate notes, a single-point shift in polling leads to an 8% increase (or decrease) in Harris’ chances of winning in the model.

The big takeaway here? It’s close! And it’s likely to remain close!

Which is, really, what the other major election models are saying too. The 538 model says that Harris wins 60 times to Trump’s 39 times in a run of 100 elections. (In one scenario out of every 100, there is no electoral college winner!) Decision Desk HQ gives Harris a 55% chance of winning and Trump a 45% chance. The Economist? 60% Harris to 40% for Trump.

We have a tendency to look at some of those bigger numbers and draw conclusions like: “The models are saying Harris is going to win.” But what they are really saying is that if the race was run 100 times, Harris would win it 60 times and Trump would win 40 times. Which isn’t the same thing as saying Harris is going to win.

Think about it outside of politics. If someone told you that you had a 60% chance of surviving if you tried to cross a busy street at rush hour, would you stride out confidently into traffic?

Probably not, right? Because you would do the math and realize that you had a 40% chance of being killed!

Well, same goes for this election (not the being killed part though!). Yes, Harris, right now, has more scenarios where she wins than where she loses. But it’s not a done deal. Far from it.

One more thought on all of this: I think the desire for certainty where there is none available — like in this election — is why people are so drawn to the 13 keys of Allan Lichtman.

Because Lichtman says, beyond a shadow of doubt, that Harris is going to win — and history tells him that. It makes people feel like they aren’t just following the ups and downs — and inherent unpredictability — of polls and candidates. Instead, they have a rock solid set of principles that point to a clear conclusion.

But the only certainty in elections in uncertainty. That’s what all of these models — Nate’s included — show. The only thing I feel (relatively) certain about is that this race is going to be close.

2. Hand-counting in Georgia

Georgia Election Board Orders Hand-Counting of Ballots - The New York Times

On Friday, the Georgia Board of Elections voted —by a 3-2 margin — to mandate that all votes cast on November 5 will need to be hand-counted before the final results in the state are certified.

Prior to this vote, Georgia’s election results were tabulated via machine count. But, allies of Donald Trump have long insisted that the machine count isn’t reliable — and that the only way to ensure a fair vote is for a hand-count to affirm the results.

As the New York Times noted:

The new rule to require hand counting in addition to a machine count, critics argue, could introduce errors and confusion into the process and potentially disrupt the custody of ballots.
To start hand-counting on election night, poll workers would likely have to break open the seals on boxes of completed ballots, possibly exposing the ballots to fraud or loss. In previous elections, ballots remain sealed and stored securely unless a recount was ordered.

Georgia is likely to be a hotspot for election watchers. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by 11,779 votes. Trump made national headlines when it was revealed that he had called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, and insisted the election official “find” enough votes for him to win the state.

“The people of Georgia are angry, the people of the country are angry,” Trump told Raffensperger. “And there’s nothing wrong with saying, you know, that you’ve recalculated.”

Raffensperger refused to bow to Trump’s pressure campaign. Biden won the state — and the election.

But because of Trump’s action — and ongoing insistence that the 2020 election was stolen from him — election officials loyal to the former president have changed rules governing how ballots are counted.

Last month, this same election board granted local officials powers to slow or even prevent certification of county election results.

3. AMA

Every Friday I do a livestream on my YouTube channel. (We went over 40,000 subscribers this week!). It’s worth the watch!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“If this was 1,000 years ago, he would be the little person that juggles for entertainment in front of the king.” — GOP Rep. James Comer on Florida Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz

ONE GOOD CHART

Lots of people were stunned when Kamala Harris said in the presidential debate that she owned a gun. Turns out that Democrats — not Republicans or Independents — are the fastest-rising group of gun owners, according to the Wall Street Journal.

SONG OF THE DAY

Bon Iver (aka Justin Vernon) hasn’t released new music since “i,i” in 2019. (Which was amazing!) But that ends today! “Speyside” is out — as the first single off of “SABLE,” the new EP that will be released October 18.

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