Vote as if your life depended on it. Because it does. Polls are bunk. Republicans this week have spent a lot of time undermining the United States voting system as they have become more unpopular. Going to be interesting if the election is decided by House Republicans or the US Supreme Court. Not sure that’s going to fly given their partisanship. We are likely to see the end of the Republic if that happens. We need to be prepared for that. Doesn’t necessarily mean that there will be civil unrest. Red states and blue states could decide to exit the union unilaterally. But with 400 million weapons (7% of them in the hands of the military) it’s hard to believe some won’t be used for bad purposes. Two months to go.
Comer Pyle is one of the dimmest members of Congress. When his big "witness" against Biden turned out to be regurgitating Russian misinformation Comer doubled down on his accusations.
Two observations: 1) Since she entered the race the only candidate who has shown upward mobility everywhere is Vice-president Harris. The upward mobility may be in small incremental measures, but it has been very real.
2) There is nothing said by Rep. Comer that is worth my attention.
I am very worried about Nebraska. How likely do you think it possible that the state will change its method of awarding their votes? I have this horrible nightmare of the vote coming down to the house! i think that i am actually worried about all the shenanigans contributing to an "event" where the votes don't actually count... maybe the SC decides(the ghost of Al Gore) or the house chooses. argh!!!! Jeeeeeeesus, can this really be happening?
I feel and live your fear. If this helps: Nebraska changing its apportionment to winner take all, I believe, removes the chance of a tie in the ec and the threat of a House decision. I hope 🙏
OK, I'm calling out the headline, which is highly misleading at best (and clickbait at worst).
"Nate Silver's model flips for Harris" is not at all an accurate summary of his model's output, as the piece itself explains, and as Silver himself took pains to try to explain just yesterday: "Don't let randomness make a fool of you" https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-randomness-make-a-fool-of
Yes, and Silver's model was by far the most bullish on Trump. Sam Wang at election.princeton.edu gave Trump a 1% chance of winning, and vowed to eat a bug if Trump won. Good to his word, Sam ate a bug live on CNN. (He had neglected the possibility of correlated state polling errors.) And that explains why now a red-white-and-blue bug is the site's logo ...
OK Chris. I've been watching all this like everybody else and I have a theory that cannot be validated/Invalidated until election day: I'm confident there are X number of Republican, outwardly pro-Trump female voters who are going to quietly pull the lever for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. They will be motivated by the overturning of Roe v. Wade and it likely will be a decisive factor in lifting Harris to victory. How big is this percentage? It's impossible to know because it can't be polled but it doesn't have to be large (2 percent?) to tip the presidency to the Democrats.
Time to inoculate voters against whatever will be the October surprise. Whatever it is, we can’t be confused or let the subject be changed. Donald Trump has plans that are dangerous for all Americans.
I am more concerned about the shenanigans in Georgia right now. How is this even allowed? It’s a boondoggle for sure, meant to screw up the process!
The Georgia election board is blatantly trying to rig the election. I hope the courts step in.
I still have PTSD to Huff Po saying HRC had a 99% of winning
Say Chris…. You should really look into getting the transcript of Trump’s speech in California 9/13/24.
The whole thing about getting water for Californians via a giant faucet that takes all day to turn is priceless .
I dislike all of this constant attention and hyper ventilating to every daily poll. Have at it if it turns you on, but it bores me.
Polls are unreliable, in my opinion. We'll know when we know. All that goes before is just mental masturbation.
Vote as if your life depended on it. Because it does. Polls are bunk. Republicans this week have spent a lot of time undermining the United States voting system as they have become more unpopular. Going to be interesting if the election is decided by House Republicans or the US Supreme Court. Not sure that’s going to fly given their partisanship. We are likely to see the end of the Republic if that happens. We need to be prepared for that. Doesn’t necessarily mean that there will be civil unrest. Red states and blue states could decide to exit the union unilaterally. But with 400 million weapons (7% of them in the hands of the military) it’s hard to believe some won’t be used for bad purposes. Two months to go.
Nasty James Comer!
Comer Pyle is one of the dimmest members of Congress. When his big "witness" against Biden turned out to be regurgitating Russian misinformation Comer doubled down on his accusations.
Two observations: 1) Since she entered the race the only candidate who has shown upward mobility everywhere is Vice-president Harris. The upward mobility may be in small incremental measures, but it has been very real.
2) There is nothing said by Rep. Comer that is worth my attention.
The recent developments re North Carolina may alter a lot of prediction models. If KH wins there...game over. Lets hope.
Chris,
I am very worried about Nebraska. How likely do you think it possible that the state will change its method of awarding their votes? I have this horrible nightmare of the vote coming down to the house! i think that i am actually worried about all the shenanigans contributing to an "event" where the votes don't actually count... maybe the SC decides(the ghost of Al Gore) or the house chooses. argh!!!! Jeeeeeeesus, can this really be happening?
thanks
A
I feel and live your fear. If this helps: Nebraska changing its apportionment to winner take all, I believe, removes the chance of a tie in the ec and the threat of a House decision. I hope 🙏
OK, I'm calling out the headline, which is highly misleading at best (and clickbait at worst).
"Nate Silver's model flips for Harris" is not at all an accurate summary of his model's output, as the piece itself explains, and as Silver himself took pains to try to explain just yesterday: "Don't let randomness make a fool of you" https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-randomness-make-a-fool-of
C'mon Chris, you're better than this!
I’m not sure I have this exactly correct but I think in 2016 Trump had a 33% chance of winning. That’s instructive for this year.
Yes, and Silver's model was by far the most bullish on Trump. Sam Wang at election.princeton.edu gave Trump a 1% chance of winning, and vowed to eat a bug if Trump won. Good to his word, Sam ate a bug live on CNN. (He had neglected the possibility of correlated state polling errors.) And that explains why now a red-white-and-blue bug is the site's logo ...
I think HuffPo's issue was they relied strictly on polling
Did HuffPo have a model? Not that I recall ...
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_n_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94
Wow! I don't remember that one.
OK Chris. I've been watching all this like everybody else and I have a theory that cannot be validated/Invalidated until election day: I'm confident there are X number of Republican, outwardly pro-Trump female voters who are going to quietly pull the lever for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. They will be motivated by the overturning of Roe v. Wade and it likely will be a decisive factor in lifting Harris to victory. How big is this percentage? It's impossible to know because it can't be polled but it doesn't have to be large (2 percent?) to tip the presidency to the Democrats.
Time to inoculate voters against whatever will be the October surprise. Whatever it is, we can’t be confused or let the subject be changed. Donald Trump has plans that are dangerous for all Americans.
Lichtmans was on record saying Biden would win also. Not so perfect . lol
We'll never know if Biden would have won or not.