Chris Crucial: Nikki Haley (No Labels)?

PLUS: No one wants Trump (or Biden)!

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1. Nikki Haley’s endgame, revisited: I have had three conversations with political people over the last week — including at lunch today! — where the same question came up: What is Nikki Haley doing?

As in: Why is she still running? Is there some sort of secret strategy here we aren’t seeing?

I will admit I have been skeptical about Haley playing six-dimensional chess here. But something Haley said this weekend — during an interview on “Meet the Press” — made me think I could be wrong.

Asked whether she would endorse (or vote for) Trump if he is the Republican nominee (and he is going to be) Haley suggested that she was no longer bound by the Republican National Committee pledge she had signed asserting that she would back the party’s pick.

“No, I think I’ll make what decision I want to make, but that’s not something I’m thinking about,” she said.

Which:

Not endorsing Trump — or leaving the door open to not endorsing Trump — is a step further than Haley has gone before. Which is worth taking note of.

The way I see it, Haley is doing one of two things here (and by “here” I mean her continued candidacy against Trump despite that there is NO chance she can win).

1. She is laying the groundwork to run an “I told you so” candidacy in 2028 if Trump loses. That she warned Republicans, repeatedly, Trump would lose and he did. She would be banking on buyer’s remorse to set in with Republicans in 2028 — that they would realize the error of their ways and return to nominating candidates with the best chance of actually winning a general election.

2. She is at least floating a trial balloon to run as a third party candidate in 2024. Why say you don’t feel like you need to abide by your previous promise to endorse Trump unless you are definitely NOT going to endorse him? Like, why open yourself up to the ridicule that will accompany such a statement if, ultimately, you are going to line up behind him? Right? Right!

Now, it’s worth noting here that Haley has said she is a Republican and will stay a Republican. Which is something!

But, I would note that the possibility at least exists that Haley could do that AND run as a third party candidate for a group like No Labels. She could say she is running to preserve what conservatives really believe — smaller government, lower taxes, internationalist foreign policy etc. —because Donald Trump and his party no longer represent those values.

And what if she chose as her running mate someone like, say Liz Cheney — an unabashed conservative but someone who is equally resistant to the idea of a second Trump term? (Credit where credit is due: This was the original idea of my lunch companion today — a moderate Democrat.)

Do I think that is going to happen? Probably not! Do I see a way where it could happen? I do!

2. Two candidates no one wants, part 567: One of the weirdest — and most unpredictable — elements of the coming presidential campaign is that the two parties are set to nominate candidates that a majority of the public have MAJOR doubts can do the job.

The latest piece of evidence on that front comes via an AP/NORC national poll released Monday. Check out this chart from it:

A MAJORITY of the public says they are not confident that Joe Biden (63%) or Donald Trump (57%) have the “mental capability to serve effectively as president.”

I mean, wow.

Biden’s problems on the question are especially intriguing — because they are due, in no small part, to how his own party feels about him.

One in three Democrats(!) say that they are “not at all” or “not very” confident that Biden has the mental capability to do the job of president. That almost equal to the 40% who call themselves confident he can do so.

Trump is stronger within his own party on the question, with 6 in 10 Republicans saying he has the mental capability to do the job of president.

But, taking a step back: We are going to nominate two candidates who a majority of the public believe lack the basic mental ability to do the job they are seeking. Amazing.

Further reading: “Race to the bottom: In 2024, America will elect a president nobody wants”

3. A(nother) Trump associate pleads guilty: Former Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg pleaded guilty Monday to two charges of perjury, the second time in the last few years he has copped to criminal wrongdoing.

Weisselberg’s latest guilty plea is tied to his testimony in the civil fraud case against Donald Trump for knowingly overestimating the value of his assets to secure more favorable loan conditions from banks. Trump was ordered to pay $454 million for his role in the scheme.

As the Associated Press reported:

In court Monday, Weisselberg admitted lying under oath on three occasions while testifying in a lawsuit brought against Trump by New York Attorney General Letitia James — in deposition testimony in July 2020 and May 2023 and on the witness stand at the trial last October.

Weisselberg will be sentenced to five months of jail time in April. It will be his second time behind bars since 2022.

Weisselberg spent 100 days in jail following his guilty plea to a series of tax fraud charges related to, as NBC described it, “[an] off the books scheme over 15 years to help top officials in the Trump Organization avoid paying taxes.”

Weisselberg is far from alone as a former Trump confidante who has either been indicted or pled guilty to wrongdoing. This Axios chart — from April 2023 — shows the universe of Trump allies who have found themselves under the criminal microscope.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“If they were having his last wake, and it was him versus Trump, and he was being given last rites, I would still vote for Joe Biden.” — Mark Cuban on the 2024 race

ONE GOOD CHART

The consolidation of wealth among America’s wealthiest individuals was happening even before the Covid-19 pandemic. But the pandemic super-charged it. This chart tells the story. (Chart via Ian Bremmer)

SONG OF THE DAY

The Avett Brothers, after a period of MASSIVE productivity, have been quiet for a while now. But that ends in May when they release their first new album in 5 years! The first single — “Love of a Girl” — is out.