Chris Crucial: No sane person would want Mitch McConnell's job
PLUS: Trump loses in court. And then wins!
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1. Who’s next (and why): On Wednesday, Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell made official what was obvious to anyone paying attention to politics over the last few years: He is out of step with the current iteration of the GOP and is stepping aside as party leader.
I am going to do a deeper dive into McConnell’s legacy (it’s complicated!) at some point in the near future in this space. But, for now, I wanted to help you look around the corner at what’s coming next.
The conventional wisdom is that one of three people — John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas or John Barrasso of Wyoming — will be the next Republican leader.
I have no reason to doubt that. But I will make a BOLD prediction: Whichever of the Johns winds up winning the job will rue the day.
Here’s why: None of them is a pure Trumper.
Thune, who I would say is the favorite for the job right now (he’s McConnell’s #2), only recently endorsed the former president — and has, in the past, made very clear he does not approve of how Trump conducts himself.
Cornyn is a senator out of central casting — tall, white hair etc. — but he, too, does not share the raging populism of Trump. While he is quite conservative, Cornyn has never been part of the movement begun by the billionaire businessman.
Barasso has arguably done the most to ingratiate himself into Trumpworld. He endorsed Trump last month on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show (a favorite of the former president) — insisting that “we need Donald Trump back in the White House.” Trump responded in kind, calling Barrasso a “GREAT” senator and a “truly extraordinary man.” But, Barrasso, a medical doctor by training, doesn’t have the edge or the fire that generally distinguishes the true Trumpers.
That is a major problem for all three — particularly if Trump is elected president this fall. Trump knows that none of this trio share his political DNA — and while he might try to get along with whoever wins at the start, my guess is that he turns on that person relatively quickly if he doesn’t get his way.
While it’s more obvious why Trump could make their lives a living hell if he is sitting in the White House, I would argue that even a defeated Trump would be a major problem for McConnell’s successor. (And, no, Trump is not going away if he loses in 2024. He will say the election was, again, rigged and try to keep total control of the party. And I don’t doubt he will succeed.)
The nature of the job of Senate leader — whether in the majority or minority — involves, at some level, compromise. It’s a deal-making job — whether you are involved in building a coalition within your own party or with the opposing party.
Trump — whether in office or out — will never accept that. He wants people whose only loyalty is to him. And who will do whatever he says. He has no interest in or understanding of the separation of powers. Or the politically possible.
Look. Someone is going to ascend to the job of Republican Senate Leader. But, man oh man, that is going to be a VERY tough job.
2. Trump loses…: Donald Trump lost an appeal (stop me if you’ve heard this before) regarding how much of the bond for his $454 million legal penalty he needs to pay in the very near future on Wednesday afternoon.
Trump’s attorneys had offered $100 million as a sort of downpayment on the the larger sum he owes but that notion was rejected by the court. The appeals court judge, Anil Singh, did, however, lift the ban on Trump seeking loans from banks — offering him, in theory, a financial lifeline.
Trump will need to come up with the full $454 million by around March 23, according to CNN calculations.
He said in April 2023 that he had $400 million in available cash. It’s not clear whether Trump’s cash holdings have risen or dipped over the ensuing 11 months but it seems likely — given the other financial penalties he must pay in unrelated cases — that Trump will need some help in securing so much money over the next month.
His options are:
Sell a property or two
Convince a bank to loan him the money
Raise the money
Given the massive amount he owes — and the relatively short time frame — it seems unlikely Trump will be able to raise the cash from willing donors. Which leaves him two options — sell assets or secure a loan.
One other (potential) financial savior for Trump: Truth Social, the social media company in which his stake alone could be worth $3 billion, could go public sometime soon. But, Axios reported Wednesday that that effort has hit another bump in the road.
3. …and Trump wins: Late in the afternoon on Wednesday, the Supreme Court agreed to hear Donald Trump’s claim that he should be granted total immunity for all actions he took as president — a win for the de facto 2024 nominee that, at a minimum, delays his trial for attempting to overturn the 2020 election.
The Court is set to hear oral arguments on Trump’s immunity claim the week of April 22. Special counsel Jack Smith charged Trump last summer for his role in seeking to overthrow the presidential election. That trial was initially scheduled to begin early next month but now will not start until after SCOTUS rules on this appeal.
Earlier this month, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump was not fully immune for any action he took as president.
“For the purpose of this criminal case, former President Trump has become citizen Trump, with all of the defenses of any other criminal defendant,” wrote the appeals court justices. “But any executive immunity that may have protected him while he served as President no longer protects him against this prosecution.”
Trump appealed that decision to the Supreme Court — while insisting via social media that “a president of the United States must have full immunity, without which it would be impossible for him/her to properly function.”
The Supreme Court now has two Trump-related matters in front of it. Earlier this month, the nation’s highest court heard oral arguments as to whether Trump should be disqualified from the ballot — under the 14th Amendment — for his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection as the U.S. Capitol.
NOTABLE QUOTABLE
“Mitch has lived the American dream, overcoming polio and going on to become the longest-serving Senate leader in American history.” — President Joe Biden on Mitch McConnell
ONE GOOD CHART
The New York Times has ALWAYS been a journalistic behemoth. But as other newspapers shrink or disappear altogether, the Times has become THE tent pole employer in the industry. (Chart via Benedict Evans)
SONG OF THE DAY
On this day in 1989, Bob Dylan began recording the music that would eventually become his “Oh Mercy” album — an underrated gem. Here’s “Most of the Time.”
I am usually pretty upbeat, but the Supremes taking the case has me down. Mitch going away eventually is fine. Trump having to scrounge for cash is ok too. But that the J6 trial and its verdict may be pushed back too far to do us any good, should the POS get re-elected, God forbid, makes me feel like the Court is in his pocket. They shouldn’t have taken it.
Imagine if Chuck Schumer retires during a Trump presidency. You’d never see a gracious statement like that from him the way President Biden made one about Mitch McConnell.