CHRIS CRUCIAL: Ranking the VP prospects

PLUS: A new Trump tell-all!

Joe Biden is speaking tonight at 8 pm eastern. Check out my YouTube channel later tonight for my first reactions. And I will be breaking down the address line-by-line in this space tomorrow. That will be a post for paid subscribers only. So if you aren’t one, now’s the time! It’s just $6 a month or $60 for the year! 👇

1. Who will Kamala pick?

The Democratic National Convention doesn’t start in Chicago until August 18. But Democratic party officials say they are still planning to go forward with a virtual roll call vote of the states by August 7.

Which could mean that Kamala Harris need to make her vice presidential pick in the next two weeks!

Which is a short time frame for a very big decision. That’s where I come in. I have spent hours and hours poring over the possible picks. And below I offer my definitive ranking of the top potential Democratic vice presidents.

How did I come up with this list?

My belief is that Harris’ first priority in picking a running mate is someone who is able — even at the margins — to help her win a swing state. I also think Harris and her team believe that picking a white male is a necessary counterbalance for asking people to vote for the first black woman president ever. I also think Harris would love to push back on the idea that she is a giant liberal by putting a clear moderate on the ticket.

According to multiple reports, the Harris team is vetting seven possible picks. So, I ranked the seven we know are being vetted.

To the rankings!

1. Josh Shapiro

I went through a whole lot of electoral map calculations today. And the conclusion I came to was this: There’s no plausible path to 270 for Harris without Pennsylvania. Like, I could make a case for her losing Wisconsin. Or Michigan. Or Arizona. Or Georgia. But there’s no way I can figure out how she loses Pennsylvania and still wins. Enter Shapiro. A January Quinnipiac poll showed that 6 in 10 Pennsylvania voters approved of the job he was doing against just 23% who disapproved. Pretty, pretty good. To me, Shapiro is a clear #1.

2. Mark Kelly

Kelly’s resume is, well, amazing. NASA Astronaut. U.S. Senator. Husband to former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who has become the face of the gun control movement in the country. Did I mention he represents Arizona, a swing state that the Harris campaign thinks they can win? And that the state’s governor is a Democrat who could appoint another Democrat to the Senate vacancy if Kamala and Kelly win?

3. Tim Walz

It may be slightly controversial to rank Walz this high but I think there is a very good case for him. Walz’s resume — small town rural upbringing, military, high school teacher, state championship-winning football coach, member of Congress and governor — is pretty compelling. And I believe that Minnesota is a possible swing state. And, more broadly, that the Midwest is THE battleground of this election and that Walz can speak to white, rural voters who might be wary of voting for Harris.

4. Roy Cooper

In many ways, Cooper is the perfect pick. He spent 16 years as the state attorney general in North Carolina. And is finishing up his 2nd term as governor. He’s demonstrated over those 20-plus years that he knows how to win as a Democrat in a Republican-leaning state. And maybe, just maybe, he helps Harris expand the map by putting North Carolina in play? My one issue: Cooper is 67 years old. And I think Democrats would do well to steer away from older national nominees.

5. Gretchen Whitmer

There’s something to be said for leaning into the history-making nature of the ticket and putting two women on it. While I can see the downsides, the possible upside is SUPER high. Whitmer would help — again at the margins probably — in Michigan and the broader Midwest. And she has proven to be an able and effective campaigner. I just don’t see the Harris team taking the risk.

6. J.B. Pritzker

Pritzker, like Walz and Whitmer, hails from the Midwest. He’s been elected and reelected as governor of Illinois. He’s very, very rich. (His family owns Hyatt hotels.) But, I don’t see what Pritzker brings that Walz or Whitmer or Shapiro don’t.

7. Pete Buttigieg

Hear me on this: Buttigieg is the single most naturally talented politician in the Democratic party right now. He’s incredibly bright. He’s very good on his feet. He’s funny. But, putting a gay man on the ticket with a black woman? My bet is that the Harris team doesn’t think America is ready for that.

So, what do you think? Who’s your pick? Throw it in the comments section!

2. A(nother) Trump tell-all book

Another member of Donald Trump’s immediate family is going public with a decidedly less-than-appealing portrait of the former president.

Four years after Mary Trump published a book on the darker side of her uncle, her brother — Fred Trump III — is doing the same with a book called “All in the Family: The Trumps and How We Got to Be This Way.” (Both Mary and Fred III are children of Fred Trump Jr., Donald Trump’s late older brother.)

The book, which will be released next week, is already causing a major stir. The New York Times got its hands on a copy and, well, it does not make Donald Trump look good.

Here’s some of the Times’ reporting on what’s in the book:

Once, while in the Oval Office, the elder Mr. Trump insisted that his nephew stay in the room for a phone call he was about to have with King Abdullah of Jordan. He put the call on speakerphone, so his nephew could hear the king thank Mr. Trump for killing an Islamic State leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. ‘I killed him,’ the former president boasted in front of his nephew, according to the book. ‘I killed him like a dog.’

But another White House meeting left the author with a chill, and, it is implied, the reason for writing the book.

Fred Trump’s son was born with a rare medical condition that led to developmental and intellectual disabilities. His care had been paid for in part with help from the family. After Mr. Trump was elected, Fred Trump wanted to use his connection to the White House for good. With the help of Ivanka Trump, his cousin, and Ben Carson, at the time the housing and urban development secretary, he was able to convene a group of advocates for a meeting with his uncle. The president “seemed engaged, especially when several people in our group spoke about the heart-wrenching and expensive efforts they’d made to care for their profoundly disabled family members,” he writes.

After the meeting, Fred Trump claims, his uncle pulled him aside and said, ‘maybe those kinds of people should just die,’ given ‘the shape they’re in, all the expenses.’

Oomph.

Expect there to be LOTS more attention given to the book when it hits shelves next week.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“He's going to run through the finish line. We don't see ourselves as a lame-duck president at all.” — White House press secretary Karine Jean Pierre on lame-duck President Joe Biden

ONE GOOD CHART

It’s getting very, very expensive to run for office. Of the 5 most costly primaries in history, 3 have happened in this election cycle! (via Ad Impact)

SONG OF THE DAY

Bright Eyes (aka Conor Oberst) hasn’t released an album in four years. But a new one is coming! It’s called “Five Dice, All Threes” and it’s due out September 20. The first song off of it is now out; it’s called “Bells and Whistles.”

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