CHRIS CRUCIAL: RFK Jr. 4 Trump? 👀

PLUS: Matt Gaetz primary!

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1. Is RFK Jr. going to drop out?

As a general rule, I don’t pay super close attention to the pronouncements made by Nicole Shanahan, the main donor vice presidential candidate of Robert F. Kennedy Jr..

But, I am making an exception today — because Shanahan appears to have accidentally revealed the calculations happening in Kennedy world right now.

“There’s two options that we’re looking at, and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris — Kamala Harris and [Tim] Walz presidency,” Shanahan said Tuesday on a podcast. “Because we draw votes from Trump, or we draw somehow more votes from Trump. Or we walk away right now and join forces with — with Donald Trump.”

Which, interesting!

Reporting over the last week has made clear that Kennedy is shopping his endorsement around. After meeting with Trump during the Republican National Convention last month, Kennedy sought a similar get-together with the vice president, according to reporting by the Washington Post. Harris didn’t respond that that request.

In both cases, Kennedy was reportedly looking for a promise of a Cabinet post in exchange for his endorsement.

Shanahan seems to suggest that the Kennedy campaign has abandoned — at least for now — the possibility of endorsing Harris (maybe because she wouldn’t meet with him!) and is now choosing between either staying in the race or endorsing Trump.

Things have been going, um, rather poorly for Kennedy since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek a 2nd term and Democrats slotted in Harris to replace him. (RFK Jr. has that in common with Trump!)

A story in the New York Times today detailing the decidedly shady signature-collection operation to qualify for the ballot in Arizona was a gut punch. (That story said that Kennedy had only qualified for the ballot in 19 states and was waiting for qualification decisions in a dozen more.)

Then there’s the reporting that the Kennedy campaign is running out of money. Here’s Politico on that problem:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s sputtering presidential campaign faces dire financial straits after continuing to spend more in July than it raised.

The independent was left with just $3.9 million in the bank at the end of last month — while owing nearly $3.5 million in debt, according to a report filed with the Federal Election Commission on Monday. That was after the campaign reported spending more than $7 million in July, despite cutting back on events, while raising just $5.6 million — nearly half of which came from his running mate, Nicole Shanahan.

That same piece noted that Kennedy hasn’t done a public event since early July. Uh, what?

Kennedy’s poll numbers have collapsed too. While he was once consistently polling in low double digits in national surveys a few months ago, his vote share is now less than half that.

In short: The end is nigh. Kennedy is a declining political commodity — big time.

Which doesn’t mean that Trump wouldn’t take his endorsement! Trump is in desperate need of a positive(ish) story that robs Harris of the momentum she has built over the last month.

An RFK Jr. endorsement — especially if it came during the Democratic convention this week — might do the trick.

How much would it ultimately matter? Very hard to say. My sense of the RFK Jr. vote — based on limited polling etc. — is that much of it is already Trump-adjacent. (Shanahan acknowledges as much in the podcast interview.)

These are people attracted by Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism, his insistence that the reaction to Covid-19 was just one big government control experiment and his outsider-y personality.

There’s a whole lot of overlap between that sort of person and the Trump coalition. As Kennedy continues to fade as a viable candidate, a lot of those saying they are for him now would naturally migrate to the former president — with or without an endorsement.

Again, though, Trump needs some good (or goodish) news. Getting the Kennedy endorsement would allow him to steal a news cycle (or maybe two) from Harris. And maybe some voters too.

At this point in the race, Trump would very much take that.

2. Matt Gaetz faces voters

Florida is one of three states holding congressional primaries today — Alaska and Wyoming are the others — and all eyes, nationally at least, will be on the 1st district where Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz faces a primary challenge.

Gaetz’s opponent is Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock. Dimmock, who has the support of Gaetz hater and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has sought to make an issue out of allegations that the Congressman had sex with an underaged girl.

A super PAC backing Dimmock, which has strong ties to McCarthy and has spent more than $3 million in the race, is responsible for this ad:

Oomph.

Gaetz has denied all the allegations. The Justice Department declined to pursue charges last year. The House Ethics Committee continues to look into the allegations.

For his part, Gaetz has insisted that Dimmock isn’t really from the Panhandle district. He predicted to Politico recently that “I’m going to win it better than 2-to-1 because the folks in Washington and California and Missouri don’t quite understand the connection that I have with the people of northwest Florida and how durable it is.”

Polling is sparse but the expectation is that Gaetz will win — and likely win big.

Gaetz is widely seen as a candidate for governor in 2026 if, as expected, he wins reelection to a 5th term in November. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis will be term limited out of office in two years time.

3. How AOC won the 1st night of the DNC

Looking for a break-out star of the first night in Chicago? For me it was New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez whose speech was incredibly well received by the crowd in the United Center.

AOC has, obviously, been a star since she stunned then Rep. Joe Crowley in a primary in 2018. But her speech at the DNC and some moves she’s made over the last few years make me think she has an eye on a national bid down the line. (She’s almost 35!)

I broke down her political future in a video I made today for my YouTube channel. Check it out!

4. And speaking of the DNC…

Don’t forget that I will be doing two things tonight to coordinate with the Democratic convention. Both are for PAID subscribers. So, become one!

First, I will be hosting/popping into a Substack live chat of the proceedings. The link to the chat will be sent out around 8 pm (or as soon as I am close to a computer).

I am ALSO doing a LIVE STREAM right after the convention ends tonight. To participate in that you need to download the Substack app and enable “push” notifications.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“He is absolutely, fundamentally full of shit. The people of Pennsylvania know that, and I’m going to do everything in my power to defeat that guy.” — Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro on GOP Rep. Scott Perry

ONE GOOD CHART

This chart — via WaPo’s Philip Bump — nicely visualizes where Kamala Harris has surged since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. (Hint: it’s women and young voters.)

SONG OF THE DAY

The Smile — Radiohead’s Thom Yorke and Johnny Greenwood as well as drummer Tom Skinner — made one of the best albums of the year (so far) called “Wall of Eyes.” The band just dropped a new song called “Don’t Get Me Started.” The music video (is that still a thing?) is awesome.

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