CHRIS CRUCIAL: RIP, 'double haters'

PLUS: Trump press conference, take 2

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This is an abbreviated version of Chris Crucial. Been running around like a madman today — LOTS going on — but wanted to make sure I still got out the newsletter! Thanks!

1. The end of double haters

Graphic via Axios

Remember way back to 6 weeks ago? When Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee and “double haters” were the key to the election?

You remember double haters, right? People who had unfavorable opinions of both Biden and Donald Trump. But who, eventually, would have to choose between the two of them? And whichever candidate they chose would probably win?

Or so we thought.

Biden’s decision last month not to seek a 2nd term has myriad implications in the race to replace him but NONE as important — or, I would argue, undercovered — as the end (or significant reduction) of these double haters.

Consider two recent poll findings.

1. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter published findings from new polling in 7 swing states on Wednesday morning. There’s lots of great stuff in the data but this is what really stood out to me:

   [Harris is] winning Biden-Trump “double haters” by 30 points (54% to 24%) in the head-to-head. Harris’ ability to quickly and decisively win over those double haters is a reminder that the 2020 Biden coalition was more anti-Trump than pro-Biden.

2. Monmouth University released a national poll Wednesday that had some fascinating data on enthusiasm for the two candidates. This chart struck me in particular:

   

Consider what those two data points tell us — and how they are related.

Take the second one first. Less than HALF of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump race in JUNE. Less than two months later — and one candidate swap later — almost DOUBLE the amount of Democrats are saying they are excited about a Harris-Trump race.

That suggests very strongly to me that the issue was not with the Democratic base. The issue was with Biden. Democrats thought he was too old to do the job. Now that they have someone else as the nominee, they are super into the race.

Now, look at that double hater number from the Cook poll. Harris is winning that group, who didn’t want Biden OR Trump, by 30(!) points.

What does all of that tell us? That lots and lots of people who were previously in the double hater category were Democrats who just didn’t want to vote for Biden. They weren’t mad at the party. They didn’t think Republicans — or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — would do a better job. They were just waiting for someone not named “Biden” to be the Democratic nominee.

While there are undoubtedly some group of voters who view both Harris and Trump unfavorably, they are nowhere near as large a group as the double haters of the current president and the former president.

If replacing Biden with Harris did nothing other than return a bunch of those double haters to the Democratic fold, it might well be enough to give Harris the presidency.

2. A(nother) Trump press conference

All of a sudden Donald Trump loves the media.

For the second time in as many weeks, he will hold a press conference tomorrow afternoon as he seeks to break Kamala Harris’ momentum in the race.

Last week, Trump talked to the media from Mar-a-Lago. Tomorrow he will be at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

It’s no big secret what Trump is up to here. He lost control of the narrative of the race at the end of last month when Biden dropped his candidacy. Trump has been unable to seize it back from Harris since then. She, not he, is the big story in the race almost every day. People are talking about her crowds. Her fundraising. Her polling lead.

Trump HATES that. And knows that what looked like a sure-fire win six weeks ago has turned into a toss up (or worse) today.

As always when things are turning against him, Trump leans on what he believes to be his unique ability to change the conversation, to seize back the spotlight and the momentum in the race.

Will it work? Well, it didn’t last week! But, remember that Trump has one setting. One speed. He only knows how to do things one way. So, this is the play. And will continue to be the play.

3. The 5 worst presidents ever

Donald Trump loves to say Joe Biden is the worst president ever. But, there are historians who have ranked the presidents! And there is a consensus bottom five — which Biden is not in….but someone else you know is.

I broke it all down in a new video for my YouTube channel. Subscribe!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I don't order bacon anymore. It's too expensive.” — Donald Trump, today in North Carolina

ONE GOOD CHART

Donald Trump said in his “interview” with Elon Musk earlier this week that inflation was worse than it has been in 100 years. Except that inflation just dropped, again, in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 1962, the Beatles decided to part ways with drummer Pete Best. Four days later, Ringo Starr joined as the new drummer. The rest, as they say, is history. Here’s the Beatles playing “Money” with Best on drums in early 1962.

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