CHRIS CRUCIAL: Stop predicting the demise of Donald Trump! 🛑

PLUS: Joe Wilson collapses.

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Sorry for the lateness of the newsletter. It was a BUSY day. — Chris

1. What the debate meant (and what it didn’t)

If you read this newsletter, you know that I thought Vice President Kamala Harris won Tuesday's night’s debate — and that it wasn’t all that close.

And yet, when I woke up this morning and started scrolling through my email and then social media, I noticed something that made no sense to me: Predictions as far as the eye could see that Donald Trump had been vanquished. That he was “devastated” in the debate. That the beginning of the end of the Trump era was upon us.

The Drudge Report typified this sort of coverage:

To which I say: Really? Like, REALLY???

Have we learned nothing from the past, oh, decade of Donald Trump? This is a guy whose has been declared politically DOA (including by me!) more times than I can count.

Remember how Trump destroyed his campaign when he attacked John McCain for being a prisoner of war?

Or how Trump was definitely going to lose after he was judged to have lost all three general election debates against Hillary Clinton?

Or how he had to drop out of the race — because he would not only lose but drag Republicans down with him — after the “Access Hollywood” tape?

Or how after he lost the 2020 election Republicans would turn on him and push him to the side?

Or how after he helped incite a riot on January 6, 2021 Republican voters would walk away from him?

Or one of a thousand other things Trump has said or done in the past decade that the chattering class insisted was finally-really-we-mean-it-this-time the end for Trump?

Here’s a fun cartoon illustrating those who predict Trump really is screwed this time:

Trump, in case you haven’t figured it out, is Lucy.

The truth is this: Trump was onto something when he said that he could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and not lose any support. (That statement itself was one of the zillion times when people predicted he had crossed the line and couldn’t recover!!!)

We need to stop with the wish-casting. Stop with the idea that Trump is suddenly going to implode. That THIS debate or THIS interview or THIS ridiculous comment is going to be the one that convinces people that the former president is a dangerous maniac.

Where we are as a country is that Donald Trump is going to get 46% of the vote no matter how he does in a debate or how he performs on the campaign trail between now and November 5.

Which means that he can win. Because starting at 46% means that if he can convince 2-ish percent of people to be for him in 3-4 swing states, he will be president.

I don’t think it’s the likeliest scenario. As of today, I think Harris has the narrowest of edges in the race for 270 electoral votes.

But the point here is that Donald Trump didn’t lose the race last night. Because he couldn’t lose the race last night. He is going to be right there all the way until the end. And, yes, he absolutely can get elected.

Again, I get it! There are lots and lots of people in this country — and who read this newsletter — who keep wondering when Trump is going to hit his expire-by-date, when the public writ large is going to “wise up” on him. And there are lots and lots of sites — on Substack and elsewhere — that have made a whole lot of money by telling these people what they want to hear about the end of Trump.

But that’s not me. I am always going to tell it to you straight — even if a) it’s not what you want to hear or b) it costs me a few paid subscriptions.

So, here’s some straight talk: The debate isn’t the end or even the beginning of the end for Donald Trump. He had a coin-flip chance of winning before the debate and my guess is that by the time we hit mid-October he will be in a very similar spot

If this sort of truth telling is the sort of thing you want to support, I hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber today. It’s $6 a month and $60 for the year. Your subscription goes directly to my efforts to make this sort of independent journalism my career.

2. GOP Congressman hospitalized

Lost amid all of the attention on the presidential debate on Tuesday night was this: South Carolina GOP Rep. Joe Wilson collapsed at an event in Washington.

Wilson was taken to the hospital where he remains for a second day. Beyond that, however, there are few details available about what happened and what his prognosis looks like.

Here’s the Charleston Post & Courier:

South Carolina U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson spent a second day in a Washington, D.C., hospital, while his office has offered little detail regarding his condition after doctors reportedly told Wilson's family the 77-year-old experienced stroke-like symptoms.

No additional details have been made public, and Wilson's spokesman has not elaborated beyond a brief status update.

"The Congressman continues to be evaluated by medical staff and he is stable," David Snider, a spokesman for Wilson, told The Post and Courier on Sept. 11.

Wilson has been in Congress since 2001, representing a reliably Republican district in the Palmetto State. He rose, briefly, to national fame/infamy when, during a 2009 speech by President Barack Obama to Congress, Wilson yelled out “You lie!” (Obama was talking about Republican claims about his healthcare bill.)

Wilson later apologized to Obama for his outburst.

Years later — in 2017 — some of Wilson’s constituents shouted “You lie!” at him during a townhall meeting.

3. A story to read on 9/11

Out of the awfulness and horror of September 11, 2001 came some journalism that still brings tears to my eyes.

At the top of that list is “The Falling Man” by Tom Junod in Esquire. You should read the whole thing (whether you have or haven’t before). But here’s just the beginning:

In the picture, he departs from this earth like an arrow. Although he has not chosen his fate, he appears to have, in his last instants of life, embraced it. If he were not falling, he might very well be flying. He appears relaxed, hurtling through the air. He appears comfortable in the grip of unimaginable motion. He does not appear intimidated by gravity's divine suction or by what awaits him. His arms are by his side, only slightly outriggered. His left leg is bent at the knee, almost casually. His white shirt, or jacket, or frock, is billowing free of his black pants. His black high-tops are still on his feet. In all the other pictures, the people who did what he did—who jumped—appear to be struggling against horrific discrepancies of scale. They are made puny by the backdrop of the towers, which loom like colossi, and then by the event itself. Some of them are shirtless; their shoes fly off as they flail and fall; they look confused, as though trying to swim down the side of a mountain. The man in the picture, by contrast, is perfectly vertical, and so is in accord with the lines of the buildings behind him. He splits them, bisects them: Everything to the left of him in the picture is the North Tower; everything to the right, the South. Though oblivious to the geometric balance he has achieved, he is the essential element in the creation of a new flag, a banner composed entirely of steel bars shining in the sun. Some people who look at the picture see stoicism, willpower, a portrait of resignation; others see something else—something discordant and therefore terrible: freedom. There is something almost rebellious in the man's posture, as though once faced with the inevitability of death, he decided to get on with it; as though he were a missile, a spear, bent on attaining his own end. He is, fifteen seconds past 9:41 a.m. EST, the moment the picture is taken, in the clutches of pure physics, accelerating at a rate of thirty-two feet per second squared. He will soon be traveling at upwards of 150 miles per hour, and he is upside down. In the picture, he is frozen; in his life outside the frame, he drops and keeps dropping until he disappears.

Chills.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I don't think many people are going to be influenced by a billionaire celebrity who I think is disconnected from the interests and the problems of most Americans.” — JD Vance on Donald Trump Taylor Swift

ONE GOOD CHART

Preliminary reports say that nearly 58 million people watched the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Tuesday night. While that’s more than the 51 million that watched Trump debate President Joe Biden in late June, it’s still far below the most-watched presidential debates ever.

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 1987, Peter Tosh was shot dead at his home in Jamaica amid an apparent robbery. Tosh, who was only 42 when he was murdered, was an original member of the Wailers — and went on to have an incredible solo career. Here he is covering “Johnny B. Goode.” Incredible.

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