62 Comments

Cannot believe anyone can vote for someone who tried to overturn a free and fair election

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Folks are mad about prices and interest rate increases and will take that out on the incumbent party, because they either believe that the omnipotent president (and, by inference, VP) is personally the cause of it or that they are too dumb to comprehend the disruption that COVID caused worldwide. The Trump lunacy has gone on so long that it was normalized some time ago (thank you, MSM). Jan 6th was just part of The Show, a Trump entertainment spectacular.

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That is the real crime here - the normalization of trump’s behavior.

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Thank you so much.

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First day of voting today in Georgia.

Rather uplifting numbers are being reported.

All we can do is keep our hopes up.

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Uniqueness of this race. And not a mention that one of the candidates is a convicted felon, adjudicated of sexual assault, stole boxes of classified documents, called a mob to the capital to overthrow the election, where he just sat and watched for a couple hours - delighted they were doing all that for him. All that is pretty unique, too, right? At least deserves a mention.

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The town hall was scary because Dancin' Don looked like a senile old fool who forgot where he was. Re the election, if Reagans "better angels" still exist..at all..the surprise will be when Kamala outperforms and kicks butt November 5.

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Even WaPo actually posted a story that was β€œWTF with the dance party?”, but where was that on So What? Instead we get yet *another* β€œXX Crazy Things Trump Said” with the typical jokes…

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I literally posted on it yesterday morning

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I have a hard time believing Trump can get more than 75 million votes. Harris should be able to beat that by 3-7 million. The Dem GOTV effort is key to who wins.

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But what really matters turns on the swing states. I live in NC, the new kid on the block for swing states, and trust me, we are pulling out all the stops.

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I think you're right. The people who are supporting Convicted Felon Trump fall into three categories: racists, selfish people (I got mine, screw you), and ignorant people (everything I know comes from FOX Noise).

Harris and her supporters have got to get every last voter out. Not voting this year is voting for Trump.

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I heard that line before β€” basket of deplorables. Personally, I find it exhausting. I don’t assume the neighbors supporting one or the other candidate are some form of deplorable because I actually have seen them from more than just political views. It can be hard for some folks, I know. But once you open the aperture a little, you’ll realize there is not as much daylight as you think between opposing views.

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Well, just as an example, how do you justify the way the Teamsters Union pensions were saved by the Dems, but when it comes time for the Teamsters to give some kind of thanks, all they got was a massive spread of the ass checks and big dump on Kamala.

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I have family members and friends who will be voting for Trump. They may be misguided but they’re not as evil as you describe. In fact, many are good people.

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Well, there are three categories but we don't have to think so stereotypically about it. 1) Traditional Republicans - low taxes, small government. 2) Christian conservatives - devout, kind hearted. 3) right wing populists - insular, MAGA comes from this group. Of course there's lots of cross over and folks who don't fit easily in any box.

Harris 2024

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1. Traditional Republicans -- either supporting Harris (e.g., Liz Cheney) or spineless cowards (e.g., Lindsay Graham).

2. Christian conservatives -- eager to impose their beliefs on the rest of us (e.g., self-proclaimed "Christian nationalist" Josh Hawley).

3. right wing populists -- MAGAts who think migrants are murderers, that the economy is a basket case, and that we should sell out Ukraine to Putin.

Chris made a valiant attempt to bring us the unvarnished views of several Trump supporters none of whom made a convincing case that they simply have different policy opinions and respect those who disagree. Are there decent people planning to vote for Trump? Undoubtedly but they are either ignorant or self-deluded. This is not a policy election. It is a Benjamin Franklin election: a republic if you can keep it.

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He swayed his way through what was suppose to be a question period. He seemed to forget at one point that he had asked for music. Is no one in the GOP worried about this, including voters?

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The worst is that Vance as a replacement is very concerning! He’s crazy in a totally different way.

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I hope you can get that transcript. It wasn't funny at all. It was embarrassing and cringey.

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Saw some clips of his Economic Club of Chicago interview, and he claimed that Jan 6th was a peaceful transfer of power. It was a day of "love and peace". He is driven to present his own self-serving narrative.

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Every one can discern Chris bias by now.

Both Harris and Trump had interviews today but guess whose transcript Chris is out there chasing? You got it right people. Trump of course.

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Dude. Why do you subscribe? And do you really believe I am biased toward Trump? Like what?

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Dude?! I love it!

Personally I’ve never seen anything that makes me think you have a bias towards Trump. I think the leftward lean of your audience (my opinion) isn’t always happy with any criticism you level towards Dems.

I see you just calling balls and strikes.

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I think it’s a bit disingenuous, Chris, for you to continue to badger a reader who calls *you* out for bias (this is FAR from the first time you’ve asked the Dr why he subscribes). I have to admit, though I think the Dr. can be a bit too optimistic at times, he’s right that you have focused primarily on Trump and given shortshrift to Harris-Walz. We have asked you REPEATEDLY to bring the same line-by-line detail to Harris, Walz, and other non-MAGA politicians, and while you *very* occasionally do, it absolutely *pales* in comparison to the volume of your coverage of Trump, much of which doesn’t offer any new insight.

Have you forgotten what the mainstream media did in 2016? They found Trump so β€œdifferent” and β€œunique” that they covered the outrageous things he said over and over and over again (remember the Les Moonves quote? I know you do…), and ended up giving an estimated $1B in free advertising to him because it drove ratings and revenue.

You’re doing the same thing right now. You like to *think* that you’re being β€œunbiased” because you’re not offering Democrats β€œHopium” here, but I think you may be looking right past the ACTUAL bias you have. It’s a LOT easier to crack wise in your β€œXX Crazy Lines Trump Said” columns than *truly* digging in to the details that are very hard work. How about giving us background on just exactly *who* the funders of the 12 of 15 recent polls in PA are that are skewing the averages at 538 and RCP toward Trump in this β€œtight race”. After all, were YOU the one highlighting the skewed polls in 2022 that everyone was calling a β€œred wave”? The Republicans are doing it again with 60 new polls that are Republican-funded, but are you highlighting *that*?

You need to look deeply into your heart and determine whether you’re taking the easy way out in your column, instead of offering truly insightful analysis.

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How much "analysis" of a binary question do you need? We've seen trump in action for nine plus years now (sixty plus if you're from NY or have been paying attention). As Louis Black said last night, if you still have questions, if you haven't figured this election out, stay home! Democracy demands an informed and mature voting population. If you can't be bothered to pay attention then don't bother the rest of us with an uninformed decision and potentially DANGEROUS CHOICE!

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If cancels he does, troll he couldn’t.

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He can still troll on most posts. I don't subscribe.

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She hasn't claimed a desire to be a "Dictator on Day One!" like he has! She hasn't expressed a desire to "Deport" ten (twenty?) million people, economic consequences be damned! She actually has economic plans (admittedly unfunded) that won't cause high inflation and an INTERNATIONAL TRADE WAR! Why do we feel that everything NEEDS to change every four years? We elect an ADMINISTRATION of the government, not a new government, and certainly not a "new style" of government! We are a DEMOCRACY! If you want CHANGE you work on the system: you don't burn it down. Real PEOPLE live in there!

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Then there’s this about Republicans’ internal polling showing Trump in trouble:

https://www.newsweek.com/gop-internal-poll-showing-donald-trump-struggling-leaves-pollsters-stunned-1968589

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True. I just put it out there because it was their own and I thought they might want to use sound methodology, but who knows?!

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Thanks Mark. I think I may have seen this earlier. I tend to disregard stories that characterize polls without providing actual data. How many people were polled? What was their political affiliations? race? Age? Gender? Without any of that it is hard to place much stock in this compared to pollsters that release their data. Just my opinion.

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You guys who are still harping about Kamala not doing interviews have but one string on your guitar. Perhaps she needed to more deeply introduce herself to the base and the American people. Now she’s doing what you ask and being more specific on policy and y’all bitch about not specific enuf. All this while the β€œworlds greatest businessman” pukes out drivel on his policies and more often than not within his own silo.

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Chris I really think you and these polls are watching the wrong events. C heck out the early voting. Watch the small but steady Harris progress. Look at the replays of Trump's bonkers PA dance-a-thon. Note and trumpet the absence of a Trump medical report. The picture emerges that only one candidate is running for president and she will win convincingly.

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The reality is the recent poll numbers are very bad for the VP and the trend is not good. The Electoral Collage advantage is enjoyed by the GOP. Trump can, and has, won while losing the popular vote. While that is possible for the VP, it is extremely unlikely. A 1% popular vote election either way and Trump likely prevails. Harris probably must win the popular vote by 2 or 3 points minimum to win the election.

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There has been a good deal of analysis suggesting that the correlation between the popular vote and the EC may be different from prior cycles-i.e., that she might need only a one or two point popular vote advantage. She has that or more in most polls,. Both Nate Cohn and Nate Silver have written about this possibility, and when two Nates speak, you have to pay attention.

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I am not at all certain how the electoral college advantage can be different. At the end of the day, the Dem vote is more tightly packed into certain urban areas while the Rep votes is more spread out. Large cities like NY and LA will have big margin for the VP. But the bug margin doesn’t help much in winner take all states. That is the basis of the EC advantage.

I have read a lot of what Silver has written, but may have missed that. If you would post a link, I’d appreciate it.

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I can’t manage a link, but Nate Cohen’s 9/25/24 piece in the Times discusses the issue . The POTENTIAL change isn’t in the EC advantage . It’s in the relation between the popular vote nationally and the result in the EC. The Nate Silver piece is in his Substack, I believe

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I wanted you to know that I found the article and did read it. Thanks for recommending it.

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I gotta think the pollsters have continued to refine their models so the past Trump undercount is not seen to any signifiant degree this time.

If true, then the β€œbeat by 2-3%” mantra is outdated.

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I look at polling data closely as well and I agree with you. That said, a lot of analysts have described these polls as flawed and their sheer number is causing disruption.

Also, they are missing what I believe will be massive Democratic turnout. Women are voting in droves in early voting and we saw what that yielded in 2022 with abortion an issue. I’ll go out on a limb and say 50 Harris, 45 Trump and 5 others.

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You would be advised to read some really good reporting on the 60 new Republican-paid polls recently that have skewed the averages at RCP, 538, et al (12 of 15 recent polls in PA are Republican-paid). They did it in 2022 and the β€œred wave” never happened. This β€œweaponization” is a well-thought-out plan to make the election seem closer than it is, giving Trump the opportunity to say the election was stolen and to also diminish Democratic voters’ turnout.

Here’s excellent reporting at The Big Picture from Jay Kuo that’s worth a read: https://open.substack.com/pub/thinkbigpicture/p/2024-trump-red-wave-polls?r=1hynaw&utm_medium=ios

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The election absolutely will hinge on turn out. So you may well be correct.

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I hope so.

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Why are you so sure these polls are right? More than 60 polls commissioned by Trump affiliated organizations have been dumped into the system. I think they are misleading people in the extreme.

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I read a lot of polling data. Some polls have a superior track record to others. I am less concerned with the actual horserace numbers as the fact that one candidate or the other is up a point or two at any given time is interesting but not determinative. But, when you view polling data in the aggregate the trends become evident. It is just data, it is not mean, it does not care who wins and it doesn’t lie. The trend is bad for the VP at this moment. Can she still overcome it? Yes! But the numbers are moving the wrong way as we get closer to the election and polls historically become more accurate closer to the election.

It is hard to convince me the pollsters are in the tank for Trump when they underestimated his performance in 2016 & 2020. Polls commissioned by either party are generally marked as such and are met with appropriate skepticism. Does anybody really think the NY Times poll has a pro Trump bias?

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RCP right track 28% wrong track 61% and VP Harris can’t think of anything she would do differently. Did anyone see Bill Clinton’s comments today about the illegal immigrate that killed the young woman in GA!

O my, are these folks trying to lose this election????

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that right track wrong track could also mean people are not happy the election is this close...I hate thelack of context when it comes to this question...it's ambigous a best

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The right track wrong track has nothing to do with the election it’s solely about whether or not the country is on the right track or wrong track. It’s a feeling about the current administration. 2/3 of people believe we are on the wrong track

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got proof of yoiur assertion?

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Far be it for you to actually dig deeply into a subject, like the skewing of 538 and RCP polls by adding 60 new Republican-paid polls that have been added into those averages recently, @dutchmaga.

Here’s some excellent reporting that you won’t find on So What: https://open.substack.com/pub/thinkbigpicture/p/2024-trump-red-wave-polls?r=1hynaw&utm_medium=ios

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Oh so now we know Trump is not going to play Golf until he loses the election in November. I look forward to Chris telling us what Trump is going to be having for lunch or Dinner. As if anyone cares whether Trump is playing Golf or not. Who cares? May be Chris and the MAGA crowd.

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He had a town hall yesterday and hardly lied or said anything scary. But some people can’t be pleased. It seems now he’s being criticized for being a lousy dancer.

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why is he dancing at all?? It was supposed to be a q & a. Two people fainted. He could have taken the opportunity to discuss health care and climate warming. Instead, he danced. WTF, dude. He couldn't talk about the policies bc he has NO policies. Fear of immigrants eating your pets and raping your women bullshit is all he's got. You want this guy as the leader of the free world? God help us all.

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PS -- He "hardly lied"? Seriously? That's a good thing?

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Friends. This is supposed to be funny.

Don’t you wish Trump would stick to being a bar mitzva dj instead of a lying fascist.

From now on I’ll write β€œjoking” when I’m sarcastic, but that wouldn’t be as funny.

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You're jokiing, right? He didn't have time to say much of anything. He made some snotty comments about people fainting, called for the doors to be opened, and then spent almost forty minutes swaying to the music!

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Picture the freak out on Fox et al, if Harris had done that, or any other candidate.

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Fox "news" exists on Earth 2 with all the Trump supporters.

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I know - my point was that he gets away with stuff that if anyone else did it, the right media would be having a hissy-fit (to get all southern on you - ha ha!)

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If any "normal" politician did even one of the thousands of things Trump has done, he'd be finished politically. For some reason, he pays no price.

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Trump was pretty cavalier about the possibility of 40 million ppl impacted by the Tariffs War he wants. I'm smart, you are all dumb kind of thing. Do I think Mercedes will move all plants here? Nope. He won't get what he wants, but will still will call it a win. The loser is the American ppl. I think that 40 million is huge number. Maybe it will be less but it won't be 10 ppl, more in tens of thousands. Maybe others don't see him tumbling the house of cards that we call the economy? There are fireworks going off in the distance right now as a warning sign. Personal greed is getting in the way for some to see.

Trump challenged Micklethwait’s resistance to his tariff plan, including that 40 million jobs could be jeopardized by his plan.

β€œIt must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs being negative and then have somebody explain to you that you’re totally wrong,” he said to laughs.

Trump argued that if you make tariffs, β€œso high, so horrible, so obnoxious,” factories will come back to America.

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