I hope it's not close. I know it would give you a lot of content, Chris, but I don't think the anxiety of millions of Americans who DO NOT WANT TRUMP IN OFFICE can be ignored. He is a convicted criminal, Chris. You realize this, correct?? People REALIZE He is a criminal. RIGHT?! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with all of these people predicting he could win. It's lunacy.
Miranda, I feel the same way. How this lying, amoral, coup leader could even be considered running for President, let alone possibly win makes me feel like I'm in Bizarro World.
The election will be close because there are 50+ million low-zero information voters who either get all of their "news" from Fox or who consume no news at all. The zero news folks know nothing at all about Trump, outside of his starring in "The Apprentice" and his being a rich white guy. Sad, but true.
I am at a loss to understand why a convicted felon, who is an adjudicated sexual offender (rapist, in the words of the judge) is the presumed front runner and Kamala has to fight tooth and nail to be just a little bit ahead. I am trying to remember when was the last time I heard or read any main stream media mention those pesky facts — amidst a huge brouhaha about what dog Walz got photo’d with. I guess I have a failure of imagination.
I believe that pollsters do their best to adjust models&polls are reasonably reliable snapshots. But when I view polling, I focus on trend lines. Kamala is gaining in popularity/support .Trump is stagnant at best. I think there's a good chance she wins fairly comfortably.
Hunter finally did the right thing, although he still blames prosecutors rather than himself. I understand he was an addict. So are many criminals. Addiction may be a mitigating factor for sentencing, but it's not a defense. . Hunter acted shamelessly in several respects. He sat on the Burisma board with no real credentials while Joe had a policy portfolio for Ukraine. It wasn't criminal , but it was the same sort of thing for which we on the left rightly condemn Trump's family. And his actions as to taxes and the gun permit were clearly criminal. He should have pled guilty long ago &spared Joe and his family from some of the pain.
I agree. Her ground and turnout game are light years better, he will bomb the debate and according to a poll reported a few days ago, 15% of likely voters said they could change their minds. My prediction is a 10 million vote popular vote majority and a comfortable electoral college victory for Harris. Why?
Let’s say generously that Trump improves on his 75 million from 2020 to, say, 80 million. Biden won close to 82 million votes. He was not a popular candidate with little enthusiasm behind him. And yet he won by close to 7 million votes. I think this will be a higher turnout election than 2000, and that most of those additional votes will go to Harris. I just don’t buy the close election theory.
me either - historically 62% of registered voters vote in a presidential election but in 2020 due to Buyden’s amazing campaign skills some 94% of registered voters voted - based on your numbers we will mostly see 105% of registered voters voting to get Cackels across the finish line
How do we have a discussion of close elections without even a mention of the one that was decided by 500+ votes and/or a Supreme Court decision? Am I missing something?
BTW, Chris. I appreciate your writing even where I may take issue. Especially where I take issue, your writing stimulates my thinking. Thanks for that. You be you and we will be us!
The idea that the NYT is neutral is laughable. It is very tiring to constantly hear media folks talk of their high purpose and purity. Every one has a bias of some sort and most certainly will climb down, not infrequently, from the sacred heights to get more readers, listeners, etc.
Doesn’t the NYT venture into politics on its op/ed page? Don’t its commentators venture into politics? Shining a bright light on the fascist crowings of Trump and his ilk should, I believe, represent good, non-political, standard journalism. I thus don’t understand Sulzberger’s statement.
this election is identical to 1980 - media despised republican candidates and the democrats with nothing to offer voters except failure and
misery along with disastrous foreign policy yet polls had Carter ahead of Reagan almost until election day which produced one of the largest electoral college landslide ever - should have the same result this election
Unlike Reagan, Trump doesn't have hostages he can bribe one of our enemies to hold until he wins the election and is inaugurated.
Reagan was probably the luckiest politician in my lifetime. After he took over, he made inflation worse for a while and then his staff coined the phrase "deficits don't mattter", and here we are.
Ignorance is bliss. However I see this going the way of 2020. Close but Harris will expand the percentages in the swing states and beat Trump. Trump barely squeaked by in 2016 when he was “unknown” drain the swamp candidate. We all know who he is now. The curious (independent) voters either love him or more than likely hate him. It’s scary that he has a decent chance at winning, but he overall will lose. Hopefully this ages well
right on — the country needs 20 million more illegals, 20% inflation an unemployment, no more oil and gas, and more boy’s in girls sports and locker rooms - you go girl
Ding ding ding! We have a winner for Stupidest Regurgitation Of Outright Lies in the Comment section to So What, at least for today!
There are not, and have never been, “20 million illegals” in this country, according any agency that is mandated with border control or from *any* reliable non-governmental group. Period. That’s just the lie that Trump tells and you’re gullible enough to believe it.
Inflation, per *every* economic group including the Federal Reserve Board, is now at 2.9%, the lowest of ANY developed country, and only a hair of of the Fed’s “ideal” (totally unrealistic) rate of 2%.
Unemployment is currently at 4.2%.
And you can make the transgender community into any scary thing you like, but we still treat this small community unfairly and make them out to be far more powerful than they are. It’s just making your ignorant bigotry even more obvious.
I’m sure you’ll either ignore these absolute FACTS or make another ignorant comment, Billy, but you’ve made it clear to the So What community just what kind of low-life dunce you are, troll.
There is absolutely NO WAY the popular vote margin is 120,000 votes. It may indeed turn out to be a 120,000 total vote margin in the swing states. If you live in one of those states, or have friends that live there, do all you can to get them out to vote because their vote will absolutely matter.
I absolutely agree Trump will never have more total votes. That margin will be in the multi millions. The Electoral College is different matter. I believe the total vote margin in the swing states will be much lower. It all boils down to the swing states and insuring everyone you know gets out to vote, particularly if you live in a swing state. Every vote will matter in those states.
I hope it's not close. I know it would give you a lot of content, Chris, but I don't think the anxiety of millions of Americans who DO NOT WANT TRUMP IN OFFICE can be ignored. He is a convicted criminal, Chris. You realize this, correct?? People REALIZE He is a criminal. RIGHT?! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with all of these people predicting he could win. It's lunacy.
Miranda, I feel the same way. How this lying, amoral, coup leader could even be considered running for President, let alone possibly win makes me feel like I'm in Bizarro World.
The election will be close because there are 50+ million low-zero information voters who either get all of their "news" from Fox or who consume no news at all. The zero news folks know nothing at all about Trump, outside of his starring in "The Apprentice" and his being a rich white guy. Sad, but true.
Not true
I am at a loss to understand why a convicted felon, who is an adjudicated sexual offender (rapist, in the words of the judge) is the presumed front runner and Kamala has to fight tooth and nail to be just a little bit ahead. I am trying to remember when was the last time I heard or read any main stream media mention those pesky facts — amidst a huge brouhaha about what dog Walz got photo’d with. I guess I have a failure of imagination.
Willie Brown’s girl friend has no high ground there and the Trump convictions have no substance as anyone with a brain not eaten up with TDS knows
Still waiting
Exactly
"Strom Thurmond, running as a states’ rights candidate, won 39"
You misspelled "running as a segregationist and white supremacist candidate"
democrat
Exactly. “White Nationalist and Segregationist” is exactly what “States’ Rights” means.
@Chris, you’re both-sidesing it when youse the language of the far right.
I believe that pollsters do their best to adjust models&polls are reasonably reliable snapshots. But when I view polling, I focus on trend lines. Kamala is gaining in popularity/support .Trump is stagnant at best. I think there's a good chance she wins fairly comfortably.
Hunter finally did the right thing, although he still blames prosecutors rather than himself. I understand he was an addict. So are many criminals. Addiction may be a mitigating factor for sentencing, but it's not a defense. . Hunter acted shamelessly in several respects. He sat on the Burisma board with no real credentials while Joe had a policy portfolio for Ukraine. It wasn't criminal , but it was the same sort of thing for which we on the left rightly condemn Trump's family. And his actions as to taxes and the gun permit were clearly criminal. He should have pled guilty long ago &spared Joe and his family from some of the pain.
I agree. Her ground and turnout game are light years better, he will bomb the debate and according to a poll reported a few days ago, 15% of likely voters said they could change their minds. My prediction is a 10 million vote popular vote majority and a comfortable electoral college victory for Harris. Why?
Let’s say generously that Trump improves on his 75 million from 2020 to, say, 80 million. Biden won close to 82 million votes. He was not a popular candidate with little enthusiasm behind him. And yet he won by close to 7 million votes. I think this will be a higher turnout election than 2000, and that most of those additional votes will go to Harris. I just don’t buy the close election theory.
me either - historically 62% of registered voters vote in a presidential election but in 2020 due to Buyden’s amazing campaign skills some 94% of registered voters voted - based on your numbers we will mostly see 105% of registered voters voting to get Cackels across the finish line
Keep drinking’ the kool-aid, Billy!
How do we have a discussion of close elections without even a mention of the one that was decided by 500+ votes and/or a Supreme Court decision? Am I missing something?
BTW, Chris. I appreciate your writing even where I may take issue. Especially where I take issue, your writing stimulates my thinking. Thanks for that. You be you and we will be us!
The idea that the NYT is neutral is laughable. It is very tiring to constantly hear media folks talk of their high purpose and purity. Every one has a bias of some sort and most certainly will climb down, not infrequently, from the sacred heights to get more readers, listeners, etc.
Doesn’t the NYT venture into politics on its op/ed page? Don’t its commentators venture into politics? Shining a bright light on the fascist crowings of Trump and his ilk should, I believe, represent good, non-political, standard journalism. I thus don’t understand Sulzberger’s statement.
Dead on!!
this election is identical to 1980 - media despised republican candidates and the democrats with nothing to offer voters except failure and
misery along with disastrous foreign policy yet polls had Carter ahead of Reagan almost until election day which produced one of the largest electoral college landslide ever - should have the same result this election
Unlike Reagan, Trump doesn't have hostages he can bribe one of our enemies to hold until he wins the election and is inaugurated.
Reagan was probably the luckiest politician in my lifetime. After he took over, he made inflation worse for a while and then his staff coined the phrase "deficits don't mattter", and here we are.
Looking forward to the McMahon doc, and always enjoy your musical recommendations. Are you familiar with the band The Innocence Mission?
Ignorance is bliss. However I see this going the way of 2020. Close but Harris will expand the percentages in the swing states and beat Trump. Trump barely squeaked by in 2016 when he was “unknown” drain the swamp candidate. We all know who he is now. The curious (independent) voters either love him or more than likely hate him. It’s scary that he has a decent chance at winning, but he overall will lose. Hopefully this ages well
right on — the country needs 20 million more illegals, 20% inflation an unemployment, no more oil and gas, and more boy’s in girls sports and locker rooms - you go girl
Ding ding ding! We have a winner for Stupidest Regurgitation Of Outright Lies in the Comment section to So What, at least for today!
There are not, and have never been, “20 million illegals” in this country, according any agency that is mandated with border control or from *any* reliable non-governmental group. Period. That’s just the lie that Trump tells and you’re gullible enough to believe it.
Inflation, per *every* economic group including the Federal Reserve Board, is now at 2.9%, the lowest of ANY developed country, and only a hair of of the Fed’s “ideal” (totally unrealistic) rate of 2%.
Unemployment is currently at 4.2%.
And you can make the transgender community into any scary thing you like, but we still treat this small community unfairly and make them out to be far more powerful than they are. It’s just making your ignorant bigotry even more obvious.
I’m sure you’ll either ignore these absolute FACTS or make another ignorant comment, Billy, but you’ve made it clear to the So What community just what kind of low-life dunce you are, troll.
Chris, thank you for the Song of the day recommendations. I forward most of them to my daughter, and she thinks that I am marginally cool.
There is absolutely NO WAY the popular vote margin is 120,000 votes. It may indeed turn out to be a 120,000 total vote margin in the swing states. If you live in one of those states, or have friends that live there, do all you can to get them out to vote because their vote will absolutely matter.
Trump is going to load both the popular votes and the Electoral college ha ha..
Some people will be disappointed but so be it ha ha..
It's time for Trump to do what Hunter just did. Plead guilty and Biden or Harris can pardon both of them .
I absolutely agree Trump will never have more total votes. That margin will be in the multi millions. The Electoral College is different matter. I believe the total vote margin in the swing states will be much lower. It all boils down to the swing states and insuring everyone you know gets out to vote, particularly if you live in a swing state. Every vote will matter in those states.
It won’t be….