That’s been my thought. I believe there are a number of Republicans that won’t tell anybody that they are not voting for Trump. The question is, how many?
While I would agree with Chris that there are far too many variables this time around than in 2020 RE mail-in voting, there’s *lots* we just don’t know (And lots of states give us limited voter information: some will give us party affiliation, others will give us demographic breakdowns.), I think it would be HIGHLY unwise to assume that a Republican voting is a vote for Trump.
Given the *significant* percentage of Haley voters, especially those that chose to vote for her *after* she’d left the race instead of Trump, and given the Harris campaign’s full court press on giving Republican voters “permission” to vote for a Democratic ticket this once (friggin’ Dick Cheney! If you’d told me 2 years ago that Cheney was going to endorse the Democratic ticket, I’d have to ask for some of whatever you were smoking…😂), I think it’s just too close to know, at this point.
I, however, think Chris is totally missing the “weaponization” of polling in the last 5 weeks that’s been reported by SO MANY writers that I know he respects that I have to call him out on it. I asked for his opinion for last week’s mailbag and was passed over, and I’ll ask again tomorrow and every week until the election is done or he deigns to answer the likely most important question to be asked: is Trump *really* edging a bit right now?
You’re old enough to remember when Dick Cheney was the number one of enemy of the democrats. Do you believe that his endorsement hurts or helps VP Harris?
He’s not reaching out to Democrats, so I don’t see the negative. Will his endorsement matter to the “soft” Trump-hesitant Republican voters? Do any of them understand 50 really know much about him?
Who knows? But EVERY Republican of note that gives “permission” to vote *just this once* for the Democratic ticket can make a positive difference, particularly given this is a margin-of-error election.
Not on the app. Share, Hide, or Delete are the only options. (While I occasionally read Substack on my laptop’s browser, I generally read on my iPad in the Mac OS app)
Good for you for raising. Not sure why so many commentators are making this assumption (that all R voteers are voting for TFG) when we have Liz Cheney out hosting book talks with Harris.
Liz Cheney is out there sounding like she's pro-choice. Nobody in the GOP is paying any attention to her. The Once and Future Guy is likely to hold about 90% or higher of the GOP vote.
Speculating on this seems like a fool’s errand to me. My mother-in-law is a naturalized Indian American from the region of Southern India that Harris is from. She cast her vote for Trump on the first day of early voting. You just never know.
Democrats who voted for Biden for normalcy after COVID, voting for trump now is a much laeger number than the handful of never-trumpers (who are all on TV). Imo from what I’ve seen in the polls and real life
I suspect that generally many people are counting too much on Republicans voting against Trump, but among early voters it actually may be more common. Who knows.
First, I just checked my ballot in AZ and it is ready to be counted. Democrats use the mail to cast their ballots. I believe it is way too early to judge who is ahead based on party affiliation. Second, what about the 20% Republicans who showed up in frigid cold in Iowa to vote against Trump and that was consistent even after Trump clinched the nomination. I saw a prediction today by a political analyst I respect that Harris may get 50% of that Republican vote and a large majority of remainder may not vote for president and vote Republican the rest of their ballot. There were enough of those ballots in 2020 in both AZ and GA to give Trump those states! The news today of Trump being a Hitler lover confirmed by General Kelly may also cost Trump 2-3% of his vote according to the same political analyst I mentioned before! VOTE ALL BLUE!!!
Anything Kelly said was undone by the rapidly viral clip of Harris on Cspan 2 yesterday. It literally undid her more specific recent campaign work. Amazing
Well, Bryan you have to be more specific but you are wrong about General Kelly and his statements about Adolph Hitler Trump! Disqualification or perhaps I should tell you the stories about my Uncle Gene liberating NAZI concentration camps at the end of WW2!
I would like to bring your attention to the fact that polls are stating how many republicans to Democrats in state to state then claiming Trump is getting more votes is horrific. I have been volunteering for well over forty years at the polls on Election Day I can verify that people do not always vote to their registered party and never have hugest hike was President Obama’s 2012 campaign in our state it was overwhelming how many Republicans voted Democrat. Regan’s campaign in 1981 millions of registered Democrats voted Republican It’s their right to do so. Hence in 2020 Trump crying when he went to bed he was winning yet when he woke up he lost so it had to be voters fraud. Our voting system is so foolproof it amazes me that the media hasn’t once taken the opportunity to report on how it works. I had to go to Zoom classes this year to update changes that were 97% safety concerns for us working at the polls. The voting machines now work on lithium and do not require electricity. Yet people worship the polls before elections like it’s the same as it has always been nobody has a clue who’s winning the election until everyone votes on Election Day every thing else is bullshit
Whoever wins the Presidency will represent America to the world. The Western worlds majority view is that Trump was to weak and morally bankrupt to be a candidate in 2016, nevermind 2024.
When is Chris going to stop almost exclusively talking about the horse race and instead start commenting on the STAKES.
The recent stories about Trump's insane "I need the kind of generals that Hitler had" after multiple threats to use the military to go after the "enemy within", highlighting Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff.
While continued reporting of the lunatic disrespect directed at the military...
"Only suckers went to Vietnam.”
“That guy is smart. Why did he join the military?”
“Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.”
Trump's ex-chief of staff...literally the closest advisor to a president warning that "Trump would rule like a dictator". Calling Trump a "fascist", echoed by Trump's Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff Gen Milley.
ANY of these events would be a career ending event for a politician. Trump has multiples.
Yet, he still has a very good chance to win in two weeks.
Certainly the MEDIA treats Trump's lunacy differently. Sure looks like he has them at heel with his threats.
The STAKES of having such a vulgar wanna-be dictator who LITERALLY IDENTIFIES WITH ADOLF HITLER!!!
Cover the STAKES over the horse race.
Talk about why the media is not pounding these chilling realities even a fraction as much as Joe Biden's age...helping to RUN HIM OFF THE TICKET.
Where is the media (including you Chris) putting the same passion to get rid of Joe to get rid of Trump????
It's not the media's job to be a shill for your (or my) preferred candidate. Everyone in the country has heard your point of view. They accept it or not. Screaming fear and dismay from the rooftops isn't going to suddenly convince a Trump voter to change his or her mind.
Harris winning the election, and Democrats both the House and the Senate is becoming increasingly likely. There are many, many states that are well within the margin of error. And well within the sampling error. They shouldn’t be if Republicans really are the party of choice as a better alternative. Though no one will know a result until election week, Harris and the Democrats are leading in many key aspects. Donations, increasing popularity, women, white women, Latinos, to name a few. You can ignore this data if you want in favor of the polls. But do you really trust them? Or do you want to trust them? Which ones are paid by Republicans or include Republican derived data. Have the polling companies used ever produced polls which have been inaccurate? How often. Doesn’t that undermine them? Wouldn’t you want to know how good they are before speculating on data of dubious veracity (different commentators have their favorites of course).
Trump and his followers are clearly panicking as they go after Harris personally rather than her policies. That’s a sign of weakness. Trump’s cancelling campaign events, weak or non existent ground game, attacks on him as a fascist by former chiefs of staff, is also.
Focusing on polls which can be right or wrong, we just don’t know, seems a bizarre activity to me when there’s so many other aspects we can draw on to determine the success of a campaign. Why are these ignored?
My statement that Harris will win in a landslide in the Southern States. Democrats will win the House and the Senate cannot be disproved. Even using polls. lol
I'm CAUTIOUSLY optimistic Democrats will win the White House and the House. How do you see them keeping the Senate? To my mind we'd have to flip both Texas AND Nebraska to make that happen. It's theoretically possible -- and something to be hoped for -- but it's hardly a done deal.
"Biden is killing Harris". How I don't know. Biden rightly said Trump should be locked up. He has been convicted of multiple crimes and one of the punishments is prison. I don't see why anyone who's not a member of the MAGA cult will have any issue with that.
I just wish Chris will leave President Biden alone. That man has done an honorable job leading this country and History will prove him right.
Classic. Former Pres. Trump says to “lock her up” and democrats lose their minds about weaponizing law enforcement. Pres. Biden does and it’s not only fine, but Chris should leave him alone. The double standard is absurd.
Cry me a river. I’m so tired of people whining that analysis doesn’t meet their partisan flavors of the day. Plenty of legitimate criticism of both candidates. When you refuse to see it, you’re just a hack.
"Joe Biden is killing Kamala Harris." No. No, he isn't, Chris. That story went away faster than a Babe Ruth home run. There has been some, er, other news that kinda eclipsed it. It pays to pay more attention.
If Chris has an Achilles' heel it's that he's rational. In a normal world Biden's comment would be big news. In the Trump Error we're hoping is coming to an end it's just a blip.
Biden is not the nominee anymore. Does anybody really care what he says at this point? MAGA won't listen to John Kelly, John Bolton, Liz Cheney, McMaster, Milley, Esper, Pence, Scaramucci, Sarah Matthews, Cassidy Hutchison, Alyssa Farah Griffin, Romney, etc. Geez, that's a long list of Republicans who don't like Trump!
re: Biden I don’t understand why commentators - who all know be has a stutter - don’t factor that into listening to him talk. Reading that and knowing he has a stutter, tends to misspeak and gets anxiety when trying to control the stutter, it looks likely that he was meaning to say we have to lock up the race I.e. win, lock up the win etc. I listen to him as I listen to a nervous friend or a kid struggljng with a stutter-what are they trying to convey. You can do this, accurately, while still noting the precise wording he used. It’s not mutually exclusive to quote him and also note what may be happening with a person with a stutter.
BTW I do the same with Trump, so I realized that guy was saying Big League not Bigly, a popular expression in 80s-90s NY…but even if you give trump the biggest benefit of doubt, allow for mispoken things and try to glean meaning - you still get lies, inconsistencies, fascist statements and utter nonsense.
All my friends and family are Democrats. The older ones, like me, have voted by mail. The 50 year olds and below, down to 20, are voting in person. I think it's too early to come to any conclusions.
My 28 year old daughter and 30 year old son-in-law are voting by mail because they have to work some distance from where their live. This 69 year old will vote in person at a polling place that's a five minute walk up a driveway from where I live..
Yes, I don't know if you've watched it but it's actually a fantastic show and he does a great job of having both sides make their arguments. As somebody who looks for non partisan sources as much as I can, it's really a delight to watch. It's called 2Way on YouTube and I highly recommend it.
Republicans voting does not necessarily mean that 100% of them are voting for Donald J Trump.
That’s been my thought. I believe there are a number of Republicans that won’t tell anybody that they are not voting for Trump. The question is, how many?
Exactly right!
While I would agree with Chris that there are far too many variables this time around than in 2020 RE mail-in voting, there’s *lots* we just don’t know (And lots of states give us limited voter information: some will give us party affiliation, others will give us demographic breakdowns.), I think it would be HIGHLY unwise to assume that a Republican voting is a vote for Trump.
Given the *significant* percentage of Haley voters, especially those that chose to vote for her *after* she’d left the race instead of Trump, and given the Harris campaign’s full court press on giving Republican voters “permission” to vote for a Democratic ticket this once (friggin’ Dick Cheney! If you’d told me 2 years ago that Cheney was going to endorse the Democratic ticket, I’d have to ask for some of whatever you were smoking…😂), I think it’s just too close to know, at this point.
I, however, think Chris is totally missing the “weaponization” of polling in the last 5 weeks that’s been reported by SO MANY writers that I know he respects that I have to call him out on it. I asked for his opinion for last week’s mailbag and was passed over, and I’ll ask again tomorrow and every week until the election is done or he deigns to answer the likely most important question to be asked: is Trump *really* edging a bit right now?
Larry,
You’re old enough to remember when Dick Cheney was the number one of enemy of the democrats. Do you believe that his endorsement hurts or helps VP Harris?
He’s not reaching out to Democrats, so I don’t see the negative. Will his endorsement matter to the “soft” Trump-hesitant Republican voters? Do any of them understand 50 really know much about him?
Who knows? But EVERY Republican of note that gives “permission” to vote *just this once* for the Democratic ticket can make a positive difference, particularly given this is a margin-of-error election.
That was “under 50”
If you click on the three dots to the right of your own posts, you can edit them.
Not on the app. Share, Hide, or Delete are the only options. (While I occasionally read Substack on my laptop’s browser, I generally read on my iPad in the Mac OS app)
Good for you for raising. Not sure why so many commentators are making this assumption (that all R voteers are voting for TFG) when we have Liz Cheney out hosting book talks with Harris.
Liz Cheney is out there sounding like she's pro-choice. Nobody in the GOP is paying any attention to her. The Once and Future Guy is likely to hold about 90% or higher of the GOP vote.
Speculating on this seems like a fool’s errand to me. My mother-in-law is a naturalized Indian American from the region of Southern India that Harris is from. She cast her vote for Trump on the first day of early voting. You just never know.
Democrats who voted for Biden for normalcy after COVID, voting for trump now is a much laeger number than the handful of never-trumpers (who are all on TV). Imo from what I’ve seen in the polls and real life
I suspect that generally many people are counting too much on Republicans voting against Trump, but among early voters it actually may be more common. Who knows.
I mean, I also think 6, 12, 15, 28, 64, and 9 are lucky powerball numbers tonight. Comfort yourself as you see fit.
Or possibly 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42 😂
Ha ha ha!
First, I just checked my ballot in AZ and it is ready to be counted. Democrats use the mail to cast their ballots. I believe it is way too early to judge who is ahead based on party affiliation. Second, what about the 20% Republicans who showed up in frigid cold in Iowa to vote against Trump and that was consistent even after Trump clinched the nomination. I saw a prediction today by a political analyst I respect that Harris may get 50% of that Republican vote and a large majority of remainder may not vote for president and vote Republican the rest of their ballot. There were enough of those ballots in 2020 in both AZ and GA to give Trump those states! The news today of Trump being a Hitler lover confirmed by General Kelly may also cost Trump 2-3% of his vote according to the same political analyst I mentioned before! VOTE ALL BLUE!!!
Anything Kelly said was undone by the rapidly viral clip of Harris on Cspan 2 yesterday. It literally undid her more specific recent campaign work. Amazing
Well, Bryan you have to be more specific but you are wrong about General Kelly and his statements about Adolph Hitler Trump! Disqualification or perhaps I should tell you the stories about my Uncle Gene liberating NAZI concentration camps at the end of WW2!
Three things: Not sure anyone is paying any substantial attention to Biden anymore.
Secondly, Trump screams "Lock up (insert name) during even Micky D drive-throughs, so I think the electorate is pretty much numb to it.
Thirdly, Trump's true motivation for running for President is actually to stay out of prison. Irony is so ironic sometimes....
I would like to bring your attention to the fact that polls are stating how many republicans to Democrats in state to state then claiming Trump is getting more votes is horrific. I have been volunteering for well over forty years at the polls on Election Day I can verify that people do not always vote to their registered party and never have hugest hike was President Obama’s 2012 campaign in our state it was overwhelming how many Republicans voted Democrat. Regan’s campaign in 1981 millions of registered Democrats voted Republican It’s their right to do so. Hence in 2020 Trump crying when he went to bed he was winning yet when he woke up he lost so it had to be voters fraud. Our voting system is so foolproof it amazes me that the media hasn’t once taken the opportunity to report on how it works. I had to go to Zoom classes this year to update changes that were 97% safety concerns for us working at the polls. The voting machines now work on lithium and do not require electricity. Yet people worship the polls before elections like it’s the same as it has always been nobody has a clue who’s winning the election until everyone votes on Election Day every thing else is bullshit
Curious as to how men see Trump as macho or strong. How???? Whiny, grievance-filled is masculine???
He's both a fake tough guy and a big baby at the same time.
These are deluded people who equate being a whining bully with being macho.
Whoever wins the Presidency will represent America to the world. The Western worlds majority view is that Trump was to weak and morally bankrupt to be a candidate in 2016, nevermind 2024.
When is Chris going to stop almost exclusively talking about the horse race and instead start commenting on the STAKES.
The recent stories about Trump's insane "I need the kind of generals that Hitler had" after multiple threats to use the military to go after the "enemy within", highlighting Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff.
While continued reporting of the lunatic disrespect directed at the military...
"Only suckers went to Vietnam.”
“That guy is smart. Why did he join the military?”
“Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.”
Trump's ex-chief of staff...literally the closest advisor to a president warning that "Trump would rule like a dictator". Calling Trump a "fascist", echoed by Trump's Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff Gen Milley.
ANY of these events would be a career ending event for a politician. Trump has multiples.
Yet, he still has a very good chance to win in two weeks.
Certainly the MEDIA treats Trump's lunacy differently. Sure looks like he has them at heel with his threats.
The STAKES of having such a vulgar wanna-be dictator who LITERALLY IDENTIFIES WITH ADOLF HITLER!!!
Cover the STAKES over the horse race.
Talk about why the media is not pounding these chilling realities even a fraction as much as Joe Biden's age...helping to RUN HIM OFF THE TICKET.
Where is the media (including you Chris) putting the same passion to get rid of Joe to get rid of Trump????
It's not the media's job to be a shill for your (or my) preferred candidate. Everyone in the country has heard your point of view. They accept it or not. Screaming fear and dismay from the rooftops isn't going to suddenly convince a Trump voter to change his or her mind.
Harris winning the election, and Democrats both the House and the Senate is becoming increasingly likely. There are many, many states that are well within the margin of error. And well within the sampling error. They shouldn’t be if Republicans really are the party of choice as a better alternative. Though no one will know a result until election week, Harris and the Democrats are leading in many key aspects. Donations, increasing popularity, women, white women, Latinos, to name a few. You can ignore this data if you want in favor of the polls. But do you really trust them? Or do you want to trust them? Which ones are paid by Republicans or include Republican derived data. Have the polling companies used ever produced polls which have been inaccurate? How often. Doesn’t that undermine them? Wouldn’t you want to know how good they are before speculating on data of dubious veracity (different commentators have their favorites of course).
Trump and his followers are clearly panicking as they go after Harris personally rather than her policies. That’s a sign of weakness. Trump’s cancelling campaign events, weak or non existent ground game, attacks on him as a fascist by former chiefs of staff, is also.
Focusing on polls which can be right or wrong, we just don’t know, seems a bizarre activity to me when there’s so many other aspects we can draw on to determine the success of a campaign. Why are these ignored?
My statement that Harris will win in a landslide in the Southern States. Democrats will win the House and the Senate cannot be disproved. Even using polls. lol
And that’s why Trump Republicans are panicking.
I'm CAUTIOUSLY optimistic Democrats will win the White House and the House. How do you see them keeping the Senate? To my mind we'd have to flip both Texas AND Nebraska to make that happen. It's theoretically possible -- and something to be hoped for -- but it's hardly a done deal.
"Biden is killing Harris". How I don't know. Biden rightly said Trump should be locked up. He has been convicted of multiple crimes and one of the punishments is prison. I don't see why anyone who's not a member of the MAGA cult will have any issue with that.
I just wish Chris will leave President Biden alone. That man has done an honorable job leading this country and History will prove him right.
Classic. Former Pres. Trump says to “lock her up” and democrats lose their minds about weaponizing law enforcement. Pres. Biden does and it’s not only fine, but Chris should leave him alone. The double standard is absurd.
Who is a 34x felon?
People’s buttons are being pressed. It has been an emotional roller coaster.
I admire Chris’ ability to emotionally disconnect from this presidential race.
I guess I should just give up all hope. Chris knows best. He should become a political consultant; why be a journalist.
C'mon. Don't kill the messenger just because you don't like the message. He calls it like he sees it, and I think it's a fair assessment.
Cry me a river. I’m so tired of people whining that analysis doesn’t meet their partisan flavors of the day. Plenty of legitimate criticism of both candidates. When you refuse to see it, you’re just a hack.
What is your complaint? We don't and can't know who these people voted for. As noted, many of the early Republican voters could be voting for Harris.
Sarcasm?
"Joe Biden is killing Kamala Harris." No. No, he isn't, Chris. That story went away faster than a Babe Ruth home run. There has been some, er, other news that kinda eclipsed it. It pays to pay more attention.
If Chris has an Achilles' heel it's that he's rational. In a normal world Biden's comment would be big news. In the Trump Error we're hoping is coming to an end it's just a blip.
Biden is not the nominee anymore. Does anybody really care what he says at this point? MAGA won't listen to John Kelly, John Bolton, Liz Cheney, McMaster, Milley, Esper, Pence, Scaramucci, Sarah Matthews, Cassidy Hutchison, Alyssa Farah Griffin, Romney, etc. Geez, that's a long list of Republicans who don't like Trump!
re: Biden I don’t understand why commentators - who all know be has a stutter - don’t factor that into listening to him talk. Reading that and knowing he has a stutter, tends to misspeak and gets anxiety when trying to control the stutter, it looks likely that he was meaning to say we have to lock up the race I.e. win, lock up the win etc. I listen to him as I listen to a nervous friend or a kid struggljng with a stutter-what are they trying to convey. You can do this, accurately, while still noting the precise wording he used. It’s not mutually exclusive to quote him and also note what may be happening with a person with a stutter.
BTW I do the same with Trump, so I realized that guy was saying Big League not Bigly, a popular expression in 80s-90s NY…but even if you give trump the biggest benefit of doubt, allow for mispoken things and try to glean meaning - you still get lies, inconsistencies, fascist statements and utter nonsense.
All my friends and family are Democrats. The older ones, like me, have voted by mail. The 50 year olds and below, down to 20, are voting in person. I think it's too early to come to any conclusions.
My 28 year old daughter and 30 year old son-in-law are voting by mail because they have to work some distance from where their live. This 69 year old will vote in person at a polling place that's a five minute walk up a driveway from where I live..
Leaving the sex pest part out with regard to Halperin?
What does that have to do with his reporting?
He's essentially been relegated to very conservative broadcasters, especially Newsmax. I can't imagine he gets a lot of good Dem sourcing
That doesn't seem to be the case at all given the quality of the guests from both sides that he has on his show.
Mark Halperin?
Yes, I don't know if you've watched it but it's actually a fantastic show and he does a great job of having both sides make their arguments. As somebody who looks for non partisan sources as much as I can, it's really a delight to watch. It's called 2Way on YouTube and I highly recommend it.