CHRIS CRUCIAL: The *next* Trump 👉

PLUS: Anthony Weiner is back! 💀

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1. Don Jr. + JD

The 2028 election is 1,428 days away.

So when you hear people talking about it — and, yes, I have already heard people talking about it! — you should have an appropriate amount of skepticism about their predictions.

But, it is also true that on the day Donald Trump takes office, which is only 41 days away, he will be a lame-duck president — barred by the Constitution from running again.

Which means that the race to be the next Republican occupant of the White House starts — albeit very quietly — on January 20, 2025.

And that brings me to a new poll from the good folks at Morning Consult. It’s the first credible survey I’ve seen on the 2028 Republican field. Here’s the topline:

Two smaller things jump out at me:

• The Trump wing of the GOP is dominant. Both Don Jr. — obviously — and Vice President-elect JD Vance hail from the same national populism vein that Trump Sr. has pushed into the center of the GOP. The two more establishment-friendly pols in the party — Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley — combine for just 15% of the total vote.

• RFK Jr. at 5%! I mean, obviously, this poll is, at least in part, a function of name ID. And Kennedy Jr. is a lot better known nationally than, say, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Candidly, I don’t think there is ANY way that RFK Jr. has a snowball’s chance in hell in a GOP primary fight in four years time.

But, here’s the REALLY big — and intriguing — thing out of that poll: The Trump Jr.-Vance dynamic.

Junior was the main advocate to put the Ohio Senator on the ticket. “I exerted 10,000% of my political capital,” Don Jr. told Tucker Carlson of his push for Vance. “I may get a favor from my father in like, 2076. I used it all.”

Vance and Junior are good friends. Bros, even. Ahem. But politics has a way of complicating friendships. (Just ask Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi!)

Let’s say that, after the 2026 midterms, the polling on the 2028 race is roughly similar to the Morning Consult data above. Would Donald Trump, who is clearly interested in building a family political dynasty, really be cool with passing the Trump coalition on (or at least attempting to pass the Trump coalition on) to his VP when his own son — his flesh and blood — is just as viable a candidate?

And will Don Jr., who I am sure told Vance he wouldn’t run in 2028, be able to resist the likely pressure from his dad (and the most dedicated Trumpers) to carry on the family legacy?

Count me skeptical that the Dons — Senior and Junior — will be totally cool with Vance as the preferred nominee of the Trump coalition when and if the eldest son of the sitting president is riding as high (or higher) than the VP in polls.

Make no mistake: Don Jr. is absolutely going to run for something in the not-too-distant future. As Jason Zengerle wrote in the New York Times in October:

Today, Mr. Trump Jr. has come to occupy a perch of unrivaled influence inside the MAGA movement, so much so that of all the figures who surround the former president, his eldest son may offer the best window into the future of that movement.

While the 78-year-old Mr. Trump is running what, win or lose, seems likely to be his final campaign, the 46-year-old Mr. Trump Jr. has ambitious plans that extend well beyond 2024, and well beyond his father.

If you think Don — Senior and Junior — didn’t see those Morning Consult numbers and start thinking about the future, you don’t know the Trumps very well.

2. Just when you thought he was out…

Anthony Weiner is like the bad penny of politics — he just keeps turning up.

Weiner, according to a document obtained by the New York Post, filed an exploratory committee to run for a New York City Council seat in 2025 this week.

It would mark yet another attempted comeback by the former New York Congressman, who was forced out of office in 2011 amid a sexting scandal.

Two years after his initial disgrace, Weiner was seen as a credible candidate for New York City Mayor until it was revealed that he had sent more sexually explicit texts under the pseudonym “Carlos Danger.”

Then in 2016, Weiner became part of the late-stage drama in the presidential race when federal authorities began looking into allegations that he had exchanged raunchy photos with an underage girl. That investigation led to the reopening of the case into Hillary Clinton’s private email server — a development that the former Secretary of State believes cost her the White House. (Weiner’s then-wife, Huma Abedin, was a top aide to Clinton.)

Weiner spent almost two years in prison after being convicted on sending lewd images to a minor. He was released from a halfway house in May 2019.

Weiner has been hinting for a while now about a return to elected office — even while admitting his past is likely to come back to haunt him.

“The things in my past, the things about my addiction, the things about my acting out, the things about my background – it’s a lot, it’s a lot,” he said on his radio show. “But we’re at a moment that we Democrats, we seem like we come into knife fights carrying library books all the time.”

Hmmm.

The city council seat is open because current councilwoman Carlina Rivera is term limited out at the end of 2025.

3. Putting with Jim Clyburn ⛳

I spent my day today taping a new episode of “Politics Aside with Chris Cillizza,” the politics and sports show I am doing for Monumental Sports Network.

The first shoot was the Capitol Hill office of South Carolina Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn. We talked golf — he still plays regularly at age 84! — and he shared stories of growing up in the segregated South where all the courses around him were whites-only.

Then we putted — right in the Capitol complex!

After that, I trekked over to Georgetown University where we did some more shooting — this time for a forthcoming episode with Massachusetts Rep. Lori Trahan. (Trahan and I are both Hoya alums!)

Here’s a pic I snapped of the Healey building at G’town:

If you haven’t checked out the show yet — two episodes have aired — you can do it here. It’s been a great experience — and very revealing about how sports have played such a critical role in so many politicians’ lives.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"Tally ho." — Montana Sen. Jon Tester concludes his final speech as a Senator. It’s worth watching.

ONE GOOD CHART

How did you meet your significant other? If you are under 30, the answer is almost certainly “online.”

SONG OF THE DAY

Every summer my family goes to my mom’s vacation house on Fire Island for a week. So I was prepared to like the new ambient album by Brendan Principato, who records as Saapato. It’s called “Fire Island,” and Principato recorded it, uh, on Fire Island — under a permit from the National Park Service. The result is even more beautiful — and powerful — than I expected. You can listen to the whole thing here.

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