CHRIS CRUCIAL: The RFK Effect

PLUS: The new 538 model is out!

Welcome to Chris Crucial. Check out my mission statement on why you should invest in me. It’s $6 a month/$60 for the year to become a paid subscriber! Do it today!👇

1. RFK, Out. Now What?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the scion of a famous Democratic family who initially ran for that party’s nomination before switching to an independent bid for president, suspended his campaign on Friday — throwing his support to Donald Trump.

Unless you were asleep all afternoon — and, if so, kudos — you already know that.

The real question now is: Now what? As in: Where does Kennedy’s support actually go? And will it help Trump beat Harris?

The first thing to know is that there is a lot less Kennedy support than there was even a month ago. Once President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, Kennedy’s poll numbers collapsed.

So, the piece of the pie that Kennedy still commanded wasn’t super big.

The next thing to be aware of is that simply because a candidate drops out and endorses an opponent does not mean his (or her) supporters blindly follow.

I think that’s especially true with RFK Jr.’s coalition — such as it is. His appeal is, well, sort of all over the place. There’s anti-vaxxers. Environmentalists. Conspiracy theorists. People who hate the two-party system.

In short: It’s far from a monolith. Which makes it very hard to say where his voters might go.

And, there’s conflicting evidence as to where RFK Jr. voters lean.

There’s some evidence that his support — or where his support is strongest — leans toward Kamala Harris. Look at this chart from a recent Pew poll:

Kennedy was overperforming his national support (7%) among voters 18-29 (12%) and Hispanics (11%). Those should be Harris voters. (She was beating Trump by 28 points among young voters and winning Hispanic voters by 17 points.)

And/but, other national polls suggest the opposite. Here’s the New York Times on its polling (bolding is mine):

This is in part because it is hard to know how many of Mr. Kennedy’s supporters will vote in November. They are less likely than others to have voted in 2020, and are also less likely to say they will vote come November.

And it has not been clear which candidate Mr. Kennedy draws more votes from now that President Biden is out of the race. In recent Times/Siena polls, when pushed, Mr. Kennedy’s supporters were more inclined to support Mr. Trump. But other recent high-quality polls had found him to be pulling support from Vice President Kamala Harris.

And there’s this from NBC News polling, which shows RFK Jr. regarded much more positively by Republicans than Democrats or independents.

What’s the right answer then?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

My educated guess is that Trump will benefit — at the margins — from RFK Jr. being out of the race and endorsing him. It’s not a game-changer by any means but nor should anyone totally write it off.

Why? Because SO many of these swing states were SO close in 2020. Biden beat Trump in Arizona by 10,457 votes. Biden won Georgia by 12,670 votes. He won Wisconsin by 20,000 votes. He won Nevada by 33,000.

These are SMALL margins. And are likely to be replicated in November. Which means that a few thousand formerly RFK Jr. voters going for Trump could matter.

2. 538 Model Favors Harris

After taking a month off to deal with the exit of Joe Biden from the 2024 race and the rapid alignment of the Democratic party behind Kamala Harris, 538 is back with its new predictive model of the race.

Here it is:

As G. Elliott Morris, who runs 538, wrote of the results:

Despite the close contest, Harris’s expected performance in the polls is much better than Biden’s was a month ago. Her margin is improved now not only in the Northern battlegrounds, which were already comparatively friendly to Democrats, but the diverse Sun Belt states, too. There, Harris’s gains with Black, Latino and young voters could prove decisive. If she retains her strength in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and locks Trump out of Georgia or Nevada, his path to winning the majority of Electoral College votes will be completely cut off.

That finding is consistent with The Economist’s election model that gives Harris a 3 in 5 chance of winning.

3. Friday AMA

Every Friday, I take to my YouTube channel to answer any and all questions from my subscribers (36,000 and counting!). This was a particularly fun one — with a slight interlude while I went and answered the door!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“It was a nice-looking room.” — Donald Trump on the hall where Democrats held their nominating convention in Chicago

ONE GOOD CHART

Kamala Harris’ acceptance speech on Thursday night ran just over 37 minutes — a far cry from the 92-minute rambling epic that Donald Trump delivered at the Republican National Convention last month. Trump’s speech was the longest presidential acceptance speech in (at least) 40 years. And it’s not close.

SONG OF THE DAY

I have written about my love for Jane’s Addiction in this space before. That love affair began with the band’s album “Nothing’s Shocking,” which came out on this day in 1988. Thank to the wonders of YouTube you can listen to the whole album! (And be warned: The cover art is, um, provocative.)

Thanks for reading! This nightly newsletter brings you ALL of what you need to know from the world of politics. Think of it as a daily cheat sheet! If you want to get it in your email inbox every night at 7:30 pm, become a subscriber today!