CHRIS CRUCIAL: Today is a *very* bad day for Senate Democrats

PLUS: Trump says there will be no more debates

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1. A Republican Senate is looking likely

The 2024 Senate map

On Thursday, the two biggest nonpartisan political handicapping operations in the country moved the Montana Senate race toward Republicans.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter went first — changing its rating on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s reelection bid from “toss up” to “lean Republican.”

Then, on Thursday afternoon, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales followed suit, taking the race from its “toss up” category and putting it as a “tilt Republican” race.

As Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote of the race:

Tester is a venerated survivor, to be sure, but with Donald Trump atop the ticket his time may be running out. Successive public polls have shown [GOP nominee Tim] Sheehy opening up a small but consistent lead. An AARP survey conducted last week, from the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research found Sheehy with an eight-point edge, 49%-41%, on a multi-candidate ballot, with the Libertarian candidate taking 4% and the Green Party candidate at 1%.

Private Republican polling has the race closer than that AARP survey (though outside of the margin of error), but GOP Senate sources across the board remain incredibly confident about their chances in Montana and see the race as virtually put away.

It’s hard to argue. Donald Trump won Montana by 15 points in 2020. He will almost certainly win the Last Best Place by that margin (or a bigger one) in November.

Given increased tribalism of our politics, it is VERY hard to see a large number of Montana voters choosing Donald Trump at the top of the ticket and then going for Tester in the Senate race.

Doubt it? Consider this: In 2016 and 2020, there were 69 Senate races on the ballot. In 68 of them, the candidate who won was a member of the same party that carried the state at the presidential level. The lone exception? Maine’s Susan Collins, who won in 2020 despite Joe Biden carrying the state. That’s 98.5%.

Which is why Tester was always going to have a very hard time winning. Ditto Joe Manchin in West Virginia. (Manchin saw the writing on the wall and retired.) And Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

The Montana ratings move matters in the state, of course. But its real impact is how it changes the overall fight for the Senate majority.

With Montana now leaning toward Republicans, the GOP has 51 seats — the 49 they currently control as well as West Virginia, which is a certain takeover, and Montana. Which means, of course, that unless something changes Republicans will control the Senate in 2025 — regardless of who wins the presidential race.

Which is a very big deal. Need proof? I give you Justices Gorsuch, Coney Barrett and Kavanaugh. Or Justice Merrick Garla….oh wait.

You get the idea.

Beyond Montana and West Virginia, what does the Senate landscape look like?

Brown appears to be in the next most danger — largely due to the fact that Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020. While the incumbent leads in most public polling, most private data suggests a closer race with Republican Bernie Moreno.

Other Democratic-held seats look better for the party. In Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, Democratic incumbents have solid upper single-digit edges. The Michigan open seat is tighter but most data shows Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading former Rep. Mike Rogers.

The real problem for Democrats is their lack of true offensive opportunities. Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are ahead of their Democratic opponents by single digits. The issue? Both sit in VERY expensive states in which to run TV ads — and the math to get a Democrat over 50% in either state is tough.

Here’s the Cook Report’s latest prediction of where we will end up:

A loss in only Montana would give Republicans an outright majority of 51 seats, and their ranks could possibly climb as high as 54. The range of possible pickups is now between one and four for Republicans. At this point, a GOP gain of two to three seats is the likeliest scenario, but this could change in the coming weeks once polls tighten and candidates solidify their bases and woo undecided voters.

That makes sense to me.

2. No More Debates

As predicted in this space earlier today, it looks like Tuesday’s presidential debate will be the only time Donald Trump and Kamala Harris share a stage before November 5.

Here’s Trump on Truth Social Thursday afternoon:

So, that’s that! Probably. I mean, we are talking about Trump here so if he changed his mind tomorrow, I wouldn’t be stunned.

But, if he makes good on this no-more-debates pledge, it will mean that the two presidential nominees will meet only one time in the general election. (Trump debated Joe Biden on June 27; you may remember that debate 😂😂😂)

That would mean that 2024 is the first time in more than six decades that there won’t at least two general election debates between the major-party presidential candidates.

This is a strategic decision by Trump. He did not win the debate this week. It seems unlikely he would score an outright “win” in any future debates with Harris. So why endure 48-72 hours of bad press in the wake of another debate if he doesn’t need to?

It is a clear shift in strategy from the former president. As recently as a month ago, he agreed to three debates with Harris in the month of September alone. And just yesterday, Trump adviser Jason Miller told CNN: “Trump has already said he is going to do three debates... We’ve already committed.”

3. Meet Laura Loomer

Over the past few days, Donald Trump has had a 9/11 conspiracist and bigot by his side. Her name is Laura Loomer. And she is almost certainly the reason that Trump said Haitian immigrants in Ohio were “eating pets” at the debate.

On my YouTube channel, I did a deep dive on Loomer — and what it means that she is now in Trump’s inner circle. Subscribe!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I can't sit quietly as Donald Trump — perhaps the most serious threat to the rule of law in a generation — eyes a return to the White House.” — Former Bush Administration Attorney General Alberto Gonzales endorsing Kamala Harris

ONE GOOD CHART

Ever wonder whether there are more bars than grocery stores in the U.S.? Boy do I have the chart for you! (Via Flowing Data)

SONG OF THE DAY

When I was at CNN, Adam Wollner was my editor. In addition to being a terrific editor (and a rabid Milwaukee Bucks fan), Adam also has exquisite taste in music. Any time I am in need of new tunes, I email him and ask what he’s listening to. I did that today — and he sent me a whole playlist of his favorite music of the year (so far). I decided to share it with you!

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