Hey Chris, the best is yet to come for Kamala Harris!!!. As the electorate get to know her more, they will continue to like her INTELLIGENCE. You watch.
And I agree with you that she may not have the election in her bag just yet. But it will be in her bag in November
I agree, Dr. As the days go by, more people will like Harris and Walz and dislike Trump and Vance. Unless something completely unexpected comes up, like some unprecedented scandal against Harris, I can't see her losing. Of course, people still need to vote.
Chris, another excellent post. Thank you. One question about the polling, you and many others, consistently warn about Trump's/GOP over performance in 2016 & 2020 (as you should) but since Roe the election results show it's the Democrats over performed. Don't you think that the results of the 2022 and all the special elections should be considered? I'm left to believe that the results since 2022 show that polling due to Roe is a whole new ballgame.
Yes, not only 2022 but the fairly recent election to replace Santos in the House. Polls showed a tight race of 2 or 3 points difference, but Suozzi won by 8 points. I think it's just that the polling isn't as reliable as many think it to be.
I agree. My post noted “special elections” which includes Santos for sure! I am not saying the polling is wrong but that the breakdown of who is voting needs adjustment. My guess is more Democrats are coming out and more Independent voters are voting Democrat!
Thanks for the reply. I also recall the Republican primaries, where polling gave Trump bigger victories over Haley than he actually got. I can't recall the differences, but it seemed the polling was off by several points in some cases.
I think polling has its place in predictions, but I also think more fundamental predictions like Allan Lichtman (who Chris apparently hates) has are important as well. I look at various combinations of them all.
The key things I look for in polls are the trend lines. Harris has been heading in the right direction and seems to be gaining momentum. I agree w/ Chris that the rising favorable/unfavorable rating is very important. It shows people are getting comfortable with her and means she has room to grow. Trump doesn’t. It will be close b/c of the EC. But things are looking better. As for Harris’s press strategy, I can’t imagine it matters for most voters. I am a fan of a vibrant press. But its main value is in investigative reporting, not redundant interviews.
lol. Love the chart. But I’d recommend retiring as soon as possible to enjoy life without work. Take that pension as early as you can.
Mainstream media are no longer objective. It’s not that they are superior because they ask tougher questions than their online analogues. That’s a falsehood made up by mainstream media. Part of the issue is their ownership (mostly Republicans).
Part of it is their need to drive advertising by asking interview questions that are controversial. Rather than informative. Or to have political analysts which get very angry on live TV. Like a wrestling match. It stirs the blood and is attractive to watch. Quality journalism it is not though. I also think GenZ are sick of older adults arguing about politics on cable news. So they aren’t watching it. It’s for the best. American media ate itself.
How about connecting the dots and drawing inference from the trend. People do that with stock charts. Where will they be if the trend continues on this track.
Of course there will be people who in the privacy of the voting booth will vote their fear of the other. That’s what the Donald and JD hope. So we need to make it clear that the real fear is of what life will be like if Donald wins. What will living where they round up millions and where there is retribution. Of course there will also be purged.(We can’t have both MTG and Loomer. One of them will be purged). Will you, Chris, be a victim of retribution?
The movment is what counts. Harris is rising steadily and not suddenly so no great ups and downs. It will take the full7 weeks for her to rise high enough to be not just decisive but overwhelming. That could happen IF the ground works. Register now. Contact now and again. vote early.
Much as I want to be optimistic about the Harris/Walz ticket's chances, I have to be realistic. The public's view of Trump on business/economic matters is fully grounded in the false image of him created by Apprentice producer Mark Burnett. Consumer prices are up worldwide, yet the typical American myopia causes no appreciation for our increases being lower than those of peer countries. Trump signs and flags are everywhere around me - and our Harris/Walz sign was stolen while we were away. Most of the Trump-sympathetic view his histrionics and lies as mere forms of entertainment - poking the bear, as it were, for fun and glee, not serious intent. The winds are against Harris/Walz, especially if black and youth voters don't show up. Encouraging polls should motivate us to promote them vigorously, but not get overconfident.
The view is grounded in the reality that household finances for most people have been terrible during the Biden/Harris admin because prices have gone up 21% and wages for most people have stagnated.
Despite massive gaslighting attempts from the whitehouse and media allies to pretend that’s not what happened, people are reminded of Biden/Harris economic performance every time they go shopping or have to pay bills.
Wage has exceeded price inflation during the same period. Wages are higher, by more than inflation.
The problem is that people attribute their wage increase to something they did while simultaneously attributing price growth to something outside their control.
Do you understand that inflation was a world-wide happening? Have you looked at how well we did in battling it by comparison with other nations. Inflation was not an isolated incident that we created. It was a massive event that we had to deal with. A world-wide pandemic still killing thousands a day along with a, for the most part, world-wide economic trade shut down was ravaging our planet. Count your blessings for how well we did in just three years.
Do you understand that states with intelligent governments started reopening businesses as early as May and June of 2020 because they correctly identified that the only people who were at risk were unhealthy elderly people and extremely unhealthy adults?
If the rest of the country had followed suit we could have prevented much of the economic wreckage. Putting people on unemployment and then adding $600 per week on top of that flooded the market with money seeking a limited number of resources. Massive government spending is inherently inflationary, particularly during a period of low supply.
Keeping schools closed meant a bunch of parents had to stay on unemployment because someone had to stay home with the kids while they were falling behind academically. All those daycares had to keep their staff on unemployment because they were closed too.
Basically, Democrats and their proclivity for ignoring the consequences of giving out freebies are what exacerbated the consequences of inflation in the U.S.
Their energy policies have raised the cost of fuel, which makes every single other consumer good transported by truck more expensive.
I'm not going to count my blessings because you blindly accept the excuses made by people who have been in government for decades while failing to produce good results for the working-class and middle-class.
At what point are you going to look at their record and finally come to the conclusion that maybe these very "smart and rational" elected officials are incompetent idiots who lie to you constantly because their performance is terrible?
Of course, the Grandma is expendable argument. You should add that people with co-morbidities were expendable, too. We had the most deaths on the planet and one of the highest death rates. Your argument would've made things far worse and for what?
You mistakenly think that people would've all pretended the Pandemic was over and gone about their business. That's nonsense.
The most harm was from those that refused to be safe and refused to get vaccinated. They deepened and extended the Pandemic. Far more death and far more economic harm. Each unvaccinated that went to the hospital cost hundreds of thousands.
I fully recognize what you are saying. And appreciate it. You are making the point of why leadership is so important. The pandemic was something we had never experienced before, and had no idea what to expect. A calming, reasonable voice at the top would have been preferable to propagating mask wars and pitting states against states, and the federal government against states. Casting doubts on the scientific community only led to more widespread uncertainty in a difficult time. Yes, we could have done better. More Americans died than all our wars combined, at times a 9/11 event on a daily basis.
The government has very little influence on a free market system other than tax breaks, research and development investments and infrastructure investments. To point to a single thing causing the problems of today is an extremely limited view. The dems are wrong a hundred percent of the time and the Republicans are right a hundred percent of the time? Highly improbable, especially when serving specific agendas rather than their constituents. Case in point, JD Vance. Was propagating a false story about Springfield really the best answer he could come up with to help his constituents? Why not go to Springfield and educated himself fully on the situation and ask the local government how he can help, as befits a Senator, rather than use them for political gain. I would say the same about any leader, regardless of party. There are many different factors at play in a constantly changing environment. And the same goes for each individual, who each has their own motivations.
While we can easily explore the subject of energy policy, to say we know what the world would be like down a road not taken is limiting one’s own ability to explore the truth of things. To subjugate one’s intelligence in promotion of a side is also very limiting. Rather than starting with one’s side and collecting data that supports it, while also collecting data to attack the other side, is blinding to one’s understanding.
To explore a subject with an unbiased, objective mind is to go where the facts lead in relation to one’s interests. If the economy is what’s most important to you, then you’ll notice that Democrat administrations have done roughly 4% better in economic growth. They’ve created 50 million jobs to the Republican’s 2 million. Trump increased the debt by 7.8 trillion dollars in just four years. And in looking at today’s stock market, Dow is up almost 25%, and the S&P is up 40% since Trump. The overwhelming economists view is that Trump’s economic policies will cause more inflation and increase the debt. A huge majority of the people who worked with him have said that he is a danger. Should we not heed experts in their field?
And while I appreciate the points you have made, it’s hard for me to believe that selecting someone who over half our country vehemently hates is good for our country. To throw a stick in the spokes right now could easily send everything crashing.
I have no desire to debate a subject when we could explore the subject, but this is not possible where bias exists. I do not vote for party. I think the political party system has entirely too much power, which makes it inherently susceptible to corruption. I believe we would be better served by problem solving than warring over each issue. When the people elected a 50/50 congress, then I believe we should have a 50/50 compromise. Shoving one’s agenda down half the country’s throat with a one vote advantage will only create more animosity. Personally, I put the onus on the voters, for it is us who have not held leaders accountable and have continually elected our way into this mess. Truth in campaign laws, and truth in media laws are paramount. To mislead people for their vote is fraud, and should be punished as such. And it’s time we created an independent election system. The party in power should not have the power to establish election laws for the very system that would keep them in power. That is just asking for corruption. This would go a long way in reestablishing faith in our institutions.
I appreciate your time and your thoughtful answer. My apologies if I came off rather blunt. It was disrespectful. I shouldn’t write while in a hurry. Love your name by the way.
"I do NOT believe that Harris has the race in the bag — or anywhere close to it. I still expect polls to move around a bit as lower-information voters begin to engage in the race."
True, but sadly the key phrase here is "lower-information voters."
The best economic recovery on the planet isn't good enough? Interest rates just got cut. Housing starts are up. The stock market is at record highs.
The border that doesn't affect anybody negatively is a big deal? Historic bipartisan legislation isn't the real answer?
Nominating the worst former President in our history was a good thing? The guy that tried to overthrow a legally certified election and hang his VP? Convicted felon with numerous indictments he's running away from? Old and barely able to complete a coherent sentence? An adjudicated rapist that expressed sympathy for Jeffrey Epstein's accomplice, not the underage victims?
The mainstream media mostly contributed to its own demise. It focuses largely on the wrong things, like Israel and Gaza, and ignores much of the important issues, like debt, deficits, and taxation.
It used to be that media thought it was here to educate the population. Now it sees itself as infotainment and a profit center for its corporate owners.
“Republicans should win in 2024?” Huh? Why? Because they’ve shown such a spine by groveling at every turn? Or perhaps their honesty with the electorate? Maybe it’s those tax cuts for the rich, or overthrowing Roe by holding up Supreme Court justice picks then shoving one through instantly so they could undercut our federal agencies and take women’s autonomy away? Perhaps their false claims of being better for the economy and cutting crime? Maybe it was because they killed the border bill? Please, back up your claim. Why “should” Republicans win 2024 outside of a woefully un, and misinformed public besieged by gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics?
Sorry, David, but did you watch/listen to Chris’s YouTube video? It appears you haven’t.
I don’t necessarily agree with him, but he mentioned: low Biden approval rating; people’s broad assessment that the economy is “not good”; majority of Americans believing we’re headed in the wrong direction; etc. He makes good points.
Thank you. I didn’t mean to be flippant. I appreciate you commenting. I usually find that the measurement of the general views of our society is more indicative of how well propaganda is working rather than our true understanding of things. So yes, I saw his point. I was merely making another one, obviously not very well. I broke my own rule: let a writing sit for a bit before pressing “post”. 🫣
The Dems must keep pounding home the narrative that Trump/Vance/MAGA are extreme, un-american, unpatriotic, hateful, unGodly, and just plain awful. There is ample evidence. Lets make sure EVERYONE sees it!
Hey Chris, the best is yet to come for Kamala Harris!!!. As the electorate get to know her more, they will continue to like her INTELLIGENCE. You watch.
And I agree with you that she may not have the election in her bag just yet. But it will be in her bag in November
I agree, Dr. As the days go by, more people will like Harris and Walz and dislike Trump and Vance. Unless something completely unexpected comes up, like some unprecedented scandal against Harris, I can't see her losing. Of course, people still need to vote.
Chris, another excellent post. Thank you. One question about the polling, you and many others, consistently warn about Trump's/GOP over performance in 2016 & 2020 (as you should) but since Roe the election results show it's the Democrats over performed. Don't you think that the results of the 2022 and all the special elections should be considered? I'm left to believe that the results since 2022 show that polling due to Roe is a whole new ballgame.
Great point.
Agree completely. I think Trump tops out at 45% because of increased Democratic turnout.
Yes, not only 2022 but the fairly recent election to replace Santos in the House. Polls showed a tight race of 2 or 3 points difference, but Suozzi won by 8 points. I think it's just that the polling isn't as reliable as many think it to be.
I agree. My post noted “special elections” which includes Santos for sure! I am not saying the polling is wrong but that the breakdown of who is voting needs adjustment. My guess is more Democrats are coming out and more Independent voters are voting Democrat!
Thanks for the reply. I also recall the Republican primaries, where polling gave Trump bigger victories over Haley than he actually got. I can't recall the differences, but it seemed the polling was off by several points in some cases.
I think polling has its place in predictions, but I also think more fundamental predictions like Allan Lichtman (who Chris apparently hates) has are important as well. I look at various combinations of them all.
The key things I look for in polls are the trend lines. Harris has been heading in the right direction and seems to be gaining momentum. I agree w/ Chris that the rising favorable/unfavorable rating is very important. It shows people are getting comfortable with her and means she has room to grow. Trump doesn’t. It will be close b/c of the EC. But things are looking better. As for Harris’s press strategy, I can’t imagine it matters for most voters. I am a fan of a vibrant press. But its main value is in investigative reporting, not redundant interviews.
lol. Love the chart. But I’d recommend retiring as soon as possible to enjoy life without work. Take that pension as early as you can.
Mainstream media are no longer objective. It’s not that they are superior because they ask tougher questions than their online analogues. That’s a falsehood made up by mainstream media. Part of the issue is their ownership (mostly Republicans).
Part of it is their need to drive advertising by asking interview questions that are controversial. Rather than informative. Or to have political analysts which get very angry on live TV. Like a wrestling match. It stirs the blood and is attractive to watch. Quality journalism it is not though. I also think GenZ are sick of older adults arguing about politics on cable news. So they aren’t watching it. It’s for the best. American media ate itself.
Your 3rd paragraph has some very good points IMO...
How about connecting the dots and drawing inference from the trend. People do that with stock charts. Where will they be if the trend continues on this track.
Of course there will be people who in the privacy of the voting booth will vote their fear of the other. That’s what the Donald and JD hope. So we need to make it clear that the real fear is of what life will be like if Donald wins. What will living where they round up millions and where there is retribution. Of course there will also be purged.(We can’t have both MTG and Loomer. One of them will be purged). Will you, Chris, be a victim of retribution?
As usual your passion for Trump was obvious. 🙄
The movment is what counts. Harris is rising steadily and not suddenly so no great ups and downs. It will take the full7 weeks for her to rise high enough to be not just decisive but overwhelming. That could happen IF the ground works. Register now. Contact now and again. vote early.
Chris, have you considered reaching out to the Harris campaign to interview either Harris or Walz? Or Trump, for that matter.
Why not ? That would be something....
Much as I want to be optimistic about the Harris/Walz ticket's chances, I have to be realistic. The public's view of Trump on business/economic matters is fully grounded in the false image of him created by Apprentice producer Mark Burnett. Consumer prices are up worldwide, yet the typical American myopia causes no appreciation for our increases being lower than those of peer countries. Trump signs and flags are everywhere around me - and our Harris/Walz sign was stolen while we were away. Most of the Trump-sympathetic view his histrionics and lies as mere forms of entertainment - poking the bear, as it were, for fun and glee, not serious intent. The winds are against Harris/Walz, especially if black and youth voters don't show up. Encouraging polls should motivate us to promote them vigorously, but not get overconfident.
The view is grounded in the reality that household finances for most people have been terrible during the Biden/Harris admin because prices have gone up 21% and wages for most people have stagnated.
Despite massive gaslighting attempts from the whitehouse and media allies to pretend that’s not what happened, people are reminded of Biden/Harris economic performance every time they go shopping or have to pay bills.
Wage has exceeded price inflation during the same period. Wages are higher, by more than inflation.
The problem is that people attribute their wage increase to something they did while simultaneously attributing price growth to something outside their control.
Do you understand that inflation was a world-wide happening? Have you looked at how well we did in battling it by comparison with other nations. Inflation was not an isolated incident that we created. It was a massive event that we had to deal with. A world-wide pandemic still killing thousands a day along with a, for the most part, world-wide economic trade shut down was ravaging our planet. Count your blessings for how well we did in just three years.
Do you understand that states with intelligent governments started reopening businesses as early as May and June of 2020 because they correctly identified that the only people who were at risk were unhealthy elderly people and extremely unhealthy adults?
If the rest of the country had followed suit we could have prevented much of the economic wreckage. Putting people on unemployment and then adding $600 per week on top of that flooded the market with money seeking a limited number of resources. Massive government spending is inherently inflationary, particularly during a period of low supply.
Keeping schools closed meant a bunch of parents had to stay on unemployment because someone had to stay home with the kids while they were falling behind academically. All those daycares had to keep their staff on unemployment because they were closed too.
Basically, Democrats and their proclivity for ignoring the consequences of giving out freebies are what exacerbated the consequences of inflation in the U.S.
Their energy policies have raised the cost of fuel, which makes every single other consumer good transported by truck more expensive.
I'm not going to count my blessings because you blindly accept the excuses made by people who have been in government for decades while failing to produce good results for the working-class and middle-class.
At what point are you going to look at their record and finally come to the conclusion that maybe these very "smart and rational" elected officials are incompetent idiots who lie to you constantly because their performance is terrible?
Of course, the Grandma is expendable argument. You should add that people with co-morbidities were expendable, too. We had the most deaths on the planet and one of the highest death rates. Your argument would've made things far worse and for what?
You mistakenly think that people would've all pretended the Pandemic was over and gone about their business. That's nonsense.
The most harm was from those that refused to be safe and refused to get vaccinated. They deepened and extended the Pandemic. Far more death and far more economic harm. Each unvaccinated that went to the hospital cost hundreds of thousands.
I fully recognize what you are saying. And appreciate it. You are making the point of why leadership is so important. The pandemic was something we had never experienced before, and had no idea what to expect. A calming, reasonable voice at the top would have been preferable to propagating mask wars and pitting states against states, and the federal government against states. Casting doubts on the scientific community only led to more widespread uncertainty in a difficult time. Yes, we could have done better. More Americans died than all our wars combined, at times a 9/11 event on a daily basis.
The government has very little influence on a free market system other than tax breaks, research and development investments and infrastructure investments. To point to a single thing causing the problems of today is an extremely limited view. The dems are wrong a hundred percent of the time and the Republicans are right a hundred percent of the time? Highly improbable, especially when serving specific agendas rather than their constituents. Case in point, JD Vance. Was propagating a false story about Springfield really the best answer he could come up with to help his constituents? Why not go to Springfield and educated himself fully on the situation and ask the local government how he can help, as befits a Senator, rather than use them for political gain. I would say the same about any leader, regardless of party. There are many different factors at play in a constantly changing environment. And the same goes for each individual, who each has their own motivations.
While we can easily explore the subject of energy policy, to say we know what the world would be like down a road not taken is limiting one’s own ability to explore the truth of things. To subjugate one’s intelligence in promotion of a side is also very limiting. Rather than starting with one’s side and collecting data that supports it, while also collecting data to attack the other side, is blinding to one’s understanding.
To explore a subject with an unbiased, objective mind is to go where the facts lead in relation to one’s interests. If the economy is what’s most important to you, then you’ll notice that Democrat administrations have done roughly 4% better in economic growth. They’ve created 50 million jobs to the Republican’s 2 million. Trump increased the debt by 7.8 trillion dollars in just four years. And in looking at today’s stock market, Dow is up almost 25%, and the S&P is up 40% since Trump. The overwhelming economists view is that Trump’s economic policies will cause more inflation and increase the debt. A huge majority of the people who worked with him have said that he is a danger. Should we not heed experts in their field?
And while I appreciate the points you have made, it’s hard for me to believe that selecting someone who over half our country vehemently hates is good for our country. To throw a stick in the spokes right now could easily send everything crashing.
I have no desire to debate a subject when we could explore the subject, but this is not possible where bias exists. I do not vote for party. I think the political party system has entirely too much power, which makes it inherently susceptible to corruption. I believe we would be better served by problem solving than warring over each issue. When the people elected a 50/50 congress, then I believe we should have a 50/50 compromise. Shoving one’s agenda down half the country’s throat with a one vote advantage will only create more animosity. Personally, I put the onus on the voters, for it is us who have not held leaders accountable and have continually elected our way into this mess. Truth in campaign laws, and truth in media laws are paramount. To mislead people for their vote is fraud, and should be punished as such. And it’s time we created an independent election system. The party in power should not have the power to establish election laws for the very system that would keep them in power. That is just asking for corruption. This would go a long way in reestablishing faith in our institutions.
I appreciate your time and your thoughtful answer. My apologies if I came off rather blunt. It was disrespectful. I shouldn’t write while in a hurry. Love your name by the way.
"I do NOT believe that Harris has the race in the bag — or anywhere close to it. I still expect polls to move around a bit as lower-information voters begin to engage in the race."
True, but sadly the key phrase here is "lower-information voters."
Republicans should win based on what exactly?
The best economic recovery on the planet isn't good enough? Interest rates just got cut. Housing starts are up. The stock market is at record highs.
The border that doesn't affect anybody negatively is a big deal? Historic bipartisan legislation isn't the real answer?
Nominating the worst former President in our history was a good thing? The guy that tried to overthrow a legally certified election and hang his VP? Convicted felon with numerous indictments he's running away from? Old and barely able to complete a coherent sentence? An adjudicated rapist that expressed sympathy for Jeffrey Epstein's accomplice, not the underage victims?
The mainstream media mostly contributed to its own demise. It focuses largely on the wrong things, like Israel and Gaza, and ignores much of the important issues, like debt, deficits, and taxation.
It used to be that media thought it was here to educate the population. Now it sees itself as infotainment and a profit center for its corporate owners.
“Republicans should win in 2024?” Huh? Why? Because they’ve shown such a spine by groveling at every turn? Or perhaps their honesty with the electorate? Maybe it’s those tax cuts for the rich, or overthrowing Roe by holding up Supreme Court justice picks then shoving one through instantly so they could undercut our federal agencies and take women’s autonomy away? Perhaps their false claims of being better for the economy and cutting crime? Maybe it was because they killed the border bill? Please, back up your claim. Why “should” Republicans win 2024 outside of a woefully un, and misinformed public besieged by gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics?
Sorry, David, but did you watch/listen to Chris’s YouTube video? It appears you haven’t.
I don’t necessarily agree with him, but he mentioned: low Biden approval rating; people’s broad assessment that the economy is “not good”; majority of Americans believing we’re headed in the wrong direction; etc. He makes good points.
Thank you. I didn’t mean to be flippant. I appreciate you commenting. I usually find that the measurement of the general views of our society is more indicative of how well propaganda is working rather than our true understanding of things. So yes, I saw his point. I was merely making another one, obviously not very well. I broke my own rule: let a writing sit for a bit before pressing “post”. 🫣
Biden isn't running and the rest of those points are perceptions based on nothing concrete.
Reality should dictate who should win.
Besides that, the Republican candidate may be the worst former President in our history and is definitely a traitor.
Excellent choice for Song of the Day. That album is still so damn good. And that song is pure gold.
The Dems must keep pounding home the narrative that Trump/Vance/MAGA are extreme, un-american, unpatriotic, hateful, unGodly, and just plain awful. There is ample evidence. Lets make sure EVERYONE sees it!
Wake Up, by Arcade Fire, is one of my favourite songs of all time.