CHRIS CRUCIAL: We're back to a toss-up race!

PLUS: Debates!

This newsletter was written at a Sheetz in southern Pennsylvania. I am driving back from Cooperstown, New York but stopped along the way to make sure I got something out to you all. If you want to support what we are building together here, become a paid subscriber today. And, thank you. 🙏

1. Jump Ball

Kamala Harris has been the likely Democratic presidential nominee for just two days but a slew of national polling conducted after President Joe Biden’s decision to drop his reelection bid suggests she starts in a toss-up race nationally with Donald Trump.

Here’s NPR/PBS/Marist:

Reuters/Ipsos has the race 44% for Harris to 42% for Trump. Morning Consult pegged Trump at 47% to 45% for Harris. YouGov/Yahoo has the race knotted at 46%. Quinnipiac has it 49% Trump to 47% for Harris.

We now have enough data to say that the race is close. And that subbing Harris out for Biden probably made the race closer.

Now, a few caveats.

1. We are talking, mostly, about national polling right now. Which while important to determine which way, broadly, the wind is blowing, is NOT really how the election will be won or lost. We need some swing state polling — I’d love to see numbers out of Pennsylvania and Georgia to name two states — to know whether what we are seeing on the national level is mirrored in the key states.

2. Harris is enjoying a major-league honeymoon at the moment. The media coverage of her is very positive. Tens of millions of dollars are pouring into her campaign coffers. Crowds are going wild for her.

   

   The question is whether — and for how long — that continues. She is the bright shiny new thing now. But, reporters will start to dig into her political past. The Trump campaign will spend millions trying to define her. How polls look after this honeymoon will be key.

That said, it’s hard to imagine Democrats ever dreamed this would all work out so well. In the space of 48 hours, they have gotten Biden off the ticket, launched the Harris campaign, eliminated any major competition to her for the nomination and there’s lots and lots of polls that show that the race is, statistically speaking, tied.

Not bad for a few days work!

Again, a close race is no guarantee that you will win. And even though Harris has created a groundswell of enthusiasm among Democratic base voters that Biden never did, the electoral map remains tilted toward Trump. (Look for a post tomorrow on that reality.)

The broader takeaway here though is this: Three days ago, Democrats were on track to lose the White House (and maybe the Senate and House too) with a candidate who had an unfixable problem (he was too old to run).

Now they have a candidate who polls suggest can win. That is a VERY big deal.

2. Trump wants debates

Donald Trump said Tuesday that he wants to debate VP Kamala Harris — maybe several times — between now and November.

“I think if you’re the Democrat nominee or the Republican nominee, you really have an obligation to debate,” Trump said in a conference call with reporters — although he added that “I haven’t agreed to anything. I agreed to debate with Joe Biden. But I want to debate her, and she’ll be no different because they have the same policies.”

Trump also said that he would be “willing to do more than one debate, actually.”

Now, if I have learned anything over my years covering Trump, it’s that he says all sorts of things — some of which he abides by and plenty of which he doesn’t.

But, Trump has made good on his pledges to debate in this race.

While many people were skeptical Trump would show up for the Biden debate, I was certain he would because the former president and his team were utterly convinced that a live, 90-minute encounter would reveal Biden’s age and competence issues. And they were 100% right.

The political advantages of debating Harris are slightly less clear — at least to me. She has shown herself to be an able debater — she did well in the 2020 primary debates (at least early on) and more than held her own against Vice President Mike Pence as well.

It’s very unlikely then that Harris could give a performance even close to as bad as what Biden did last month.

My guess, however, is that Trump believes — deeply — that he is far smarter than Harris and far more world-wise. And that he would look presidential on a stage with her.

Which means he will probably debate her at least once. Emphasis on probably.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“In light of recent events, it is with a heavy heart that I have made the difficult decision to step down as your Director.” — Secret Service boss Kimberly Cheatle resigns less than two weeks after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump

ONE GOOD CHART

One feature of the new race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? There are even fewer voters who are undecided than there were in a Trump-Joe Biden faceoff. This chart is via NBC’s Steve Kornacki.

SONG OF THE DAY

If you miss the California pop sounds of the 1960s, man have I got a band for you: Beachwood Sparks. The band just releases its first album — “Across the River of Stars” — in more than a decade and it’s absolutely worth a listen. This is the first song on the record; it’s called “My Love, My Love.”

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