CHRIS CRUCIAL: Were the polls wrong?

PLUS: A silver lining for Democrats

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1. The Poll Problem?

Jon Stewart channeled lots of Americans’ views when, late on election night, he said this:

I do want to very quickly send a quick message to all the pollsters, the election pollsters. Bl-- me. I don’t ever want to [bleep] from you again. I don’t ever want to hear, ‘We’ve corrected the overcorrection.’ You don’t know s--- about s--- and I don’t care for it.

Pollsters — and the polls they conducted — have come up in every conversation I have had about the election since Tuesday night. And the sentiment from most people is very similar — if less profane — than what Stewart said: Why were the polls wrong — AGAIN?

I am here to tell you, gentle reader, the polls were not wrong.

Let me explain.

Going into election day, the dominant media narrative — as it had been for much of the last month — was that the race was too close to call. That view was based on a slew of polling in swing states that showed that, well, the race was too close to call.

And yet, when voters voted, Donald Trump had not just won but won overwhelmingly. He had taken 312 electoral votes — more than he won in 2016 or Joe Biden won in 2020! He had swept the swing states! He had won the popular vote!

Ergo, the polling was wrong. Because the pollsters said it was going to be close — and it wasn’t!

Except, well, no.

The pollsters DID say it was going to be close. And, guess what? It was!

Let’s go through the final 538 polling averages in each swing state and what the actual vote turned out to be:

Arizona

• 538 final polling average: Trump +2.1

• Final result: Trump +5 (69% of all votes counted)

Georgia

• 538 final polling average: Trump + .8

• Final result: Trump +2

Michigan

• 538 final polling average: Harris +1

• Final result: Trump +1.4

Nevada

• 538 final polling average: Trump + .3

• Final result: Trump +4 (90% of all votes counted)

North Carolina

• 538 final polling average: Trump + .9

• Final result: Trump +3

Pennsylvania

• 538 final polling average: Harris + .2

• Final result: Trump +1

Wisconsin

• 538 final polling average: Harris +1

• Final result: Trump + .9

Do the math and you get these polling “misses” in each swing state:

• Arizona: 2.9 points (votes still being counted)

• Georgia: 1.2 points

• Michigan: 2.4 points

• Nevada: 3.7 points (votes still being counted)

• North Carolina: 2.1 points

• Pennsylvania: 1.2 points

• Wisconsin: 1.9 points

Which is WELL within the margin of error of any poll (usually +/- 3 points). And which means that, no, the pollsters (and their polls) weren’t, by and large, wrong.

(Sidebar: The Ann Selzer poll that had Harris +3 on Trump in Iowa was, in hindsight, a clear outlier — and wrong. Trump won the state by 13 points. But, like, that’s ONE poll. No matter how much attention it got, it’s a single poll. And no one poll should stand for the entire industry!)

I get why people — especially people on the left — are mad. Because they were told it was a toss-up race and Trump won every single swing state. Like, that’s not close!

But, no pollster or modeler said that the swing states would split right down the middle between Harris and Trump. In fact, the smart ones made clear that a sweep of all 7 swing states by a single candidate was uniquely possible.

The election model of

Nate Silver

is a perfect example: Of all the potential combinations of where the swing states might fall, a Trump sweep of all 7 was the MOST likely outcome — happening in roughly one in five of their simulations! (A Harris sweep of all 7 swing states was the 2nd most likely outcome.)

Dunking on the polling community for missing it again is easy to do. But, it’s simply wrong.

What the polls showed was that the race in the seven swing states was going to be close. And, in every single swing state, it was.

Scoreboard: Polling 1, vox populi 0.

2. A Senate silver lining for Democrats

There was very little good news on Tuesday night for Democrats. Donald Trump in the White House. Republicans in control of the Senate. Republicans (likely) in control of the House.

But, in the intervening 48 hours, the news has improved slightly for Senate Democrats as a number of contested races have fallen their way.

On Thursday morning, Decision Desk HQ, which has emerged as a star in this election, called the Nevada race for Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen. (Worth noting: Her Republican opponent, Sam Brown, hasn’t conceded and insists he can still win.)

Rosen’s apparent victory comes hard on the heels of a series of extremely narrow wins by other Democratic Senate candidates.

Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin edged out her Republican opponent by less than 30,000 votes. Elissa Slotkin beat Mike Rogers in the open Michigan seat race by a little over 20,000 votes. Ruben Gallego is likely to beat Kari Lake when all the votes are counted in Arizona.

Which is a remarkable thing. In the 69 Senate races on the ballot in 2016, 68 of them were won by the same party that won the state at the presidential level. (The only exception was Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who won reelection in 2020 as Joe Biden was carrying the state.) Of the 34 Senate seats up in 2024, FOUR were won by a Democrat in a state that Donald Trump won.

To be clear: This was still a good-to-very-good night for Senate Republicans. They won the open West Virginia seat and beat incumbent Democrats in Ohio, Montana and Pennsylvania. (The Associated Press called the PA Senate race late Thursday afternoon.) And they lost NONE of their own incumbents.

Which means Republicans will enter 2025 with a 53-seat majority. Which is good — but nowhere near the 57 seats they might have held if GOP candidates had been able to win in the states Trump carried at the top of the ticket.

This matters for two reasons.

First, having a three-seat cushion rather than a seven-seat edge gives the eventual Senate Majority Leader less wiggle room on legislation. He will need to keep everyone on board — or run the risk of legislation failing or needing Democrats to help pass things.

Second, when looking to 2026, overturning a 3-seat majority is a hell of a lot easier for Democrats than trying to flip 8 Senate seats to retake the majority.

The 2026 map is more favorable to Democrats than the 2024 one was. Republicans are defending 20 seats to 13 for Democrats. That said, Democratic targets are, at least as of right now, few and fare between. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis is on that list for sure but beyond that? Maybe another run at Maine Sen. Susan Collins?

3. “Politics Aside” Premieres TONIGHT

As most of you know, I am hosting a show on politics and sports called “Politics Aside.” And it premieres tonight!

The idea for the show grew out of my 2023 book “Power Players: Sports, Politics and the American Presidency.” My theory in the book and for the show: Sports is a common language we all speak. And it might be a way that we can turn down the volume on politics and find some common ground.

The first episode focuses on baseball — with a special emphasis on the Congressional Baseball Game. I talked to Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin about his lifelong fandom for the Baltimore Orioles and to Florida Rep. Greg Steube about this:

If you miss the first episode, never fear! It’s going to run a whole bunch more times on Monumental! And we’ve got a lot of other great episodes to come in the next few weeks. Not sure if you get Monumental Sports Network? Or can get it? Click here!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“We dug out of a deep hole but not enough.” — Senior Harris adviser David Plouffe, taking a direct shot at Joe Biden. (Plouffe subsequently deleted his X account.)

ONE GOOD CHART

This chart — via the Financial Times — is stunning. It shows that in EVERY developed democracy in the world, the governing party lost vote share in elections this year. It’s very hard to be an incumbent — anywhere — these days.

SONG OF THE DAY

Whether your favorite candidate won or lost on Tuesday, it has been a hectic and chaotic few days. And with the prospect of a second Trump term on the horizon, it’s only going to get more so. Which is why I spent the day listening to this terrific “calm” songs playlist from NPR.

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