A habitual liar just got elected to the White House. Why would anyone believe a random person contacted by a polling agency would be absolutely honest?....
Chris you warned us and cautioned us constantly and often that the polls were not absolutely predictable and a reliable indicator of the final result.
As we know now that the swing states were all decided by a very small margin. Despite trump winning Texas and Florida by huge margins, he still had tight races in the swing states. If a few trends went the other way she could have won all 7.
I still think the unreported story of 2024 is the 14 million democrats that stayed home. They didn't switch to trump because he got 2 million less votes than in 2020, 74 million to 72 million.
So assuming all the exit polls and demographics are correct about the increased margins for trump about men and Latino voters, it makes it even worse for Kamala.
The democrats let 14+ million voters at home. That's the true story of her defeat. Not the Latino and male and increasing black share. Where did the 14 million voters go?
The more I look at it, the biggest story of the election was the Democratic turnout. Trump got 2 million fewer votes than in 2020. Harris got 13 million fewer than Biden in 2020. Why was the Democratic turnout so low?
Other than the fact that the future of democracy was on the line - and your bodily autonomy if you’re a woman - was there anything about the Harris campaign to get you fired up? That made you say “Yes! That’s a problem that needs solving and I like your ideas”?
Medicare for All? Huge tax cuts for working families to compensate for high prices? Huge tax increases on the super wealthy? Proposals to punish corporations that simultaneously layoff workers while posting record earnings?? ANYTHING at all - other than “I’m not Trump”?
Flood the zone worked. As did simple, 2-5 word messages. Dems can't do this because we think too much and have to not offend members of a broad coalition. I knew Kamala was in trouble in early September, when the pro-Trump PAC ads on TV here were simply visuals of gas and grocery prices between early 2020 and early 2024. And later, the Trump=Safety, Kamala=Crime family of yard signs. The Dems had nothing comparable.
We don't know that yet. If you look at the directional data, it appears that a large number of 2020 voters didn't show and a significant number moved from Biden to Trump. That could be wrong. Looking at the data a month from now will reveal the truth.
Actually, there are still about 13 million uncounted votes. I went through the current numbers, their % reported, and current percentages and, assuming the current percentages persist, Trump could end up with around 78 million votes which is 4 million more than he got in 2020.
One of the last things I said to my wife when we gave up on Tuesday night was, "The polls were right." She is a poll skeptic. I always want to know who is doing the polling. The good polls, Iowa notwithstanding, were pretty close.
I live in a city where people are stunned and outraged by the outcome. Me, too. But Trump will be Trump. In two years he'll lose both house of Congress. And remember, the day he is installed he becomes a lame duck. Well, all right, even more lame than usual. My index finger became weary from hitting "delete" on so many fund-raising appeals late in the campaign. Yesterday and today my index finger is tired from deleting all of the emails explaining how/why Trump won and the Dems lost. My mental health has been so much improved by refusing to read so much garbage about, er, so much garbage.
With the elections being as close as they are, and with polls having margins of error of 3-5 percent, I ask..what is the point of polling? As far as I can tell there is none.
And another silver lining for Dems/America is the Susie Wiles as COS pick. Trump must have been listening to adults, not Don jr and Eric. Let's hope that continues.
Your support of the pollsters reminds me of losing teams in sports saying….if we had just converted that third down….if he had just caught that pass in the end zone….if that field goal kick had been good…..then we would have won….but instead we got BLOWN OUT!!!!….aside from banning polls (impossible I know)…the pollsters ought to figure out why 13 million people were so apathetic that they didn’t vote…..THAT would be really fucking important info to have…..for BOTH sides!!!!
Chris, I would argue a bit with your statement, “I get why people — especially people on the left — are mad. Because they were told it was a toss-up race and Trump won every single swing state. Like, that’s not close!” Most people that I know are upset because we now have 4 more years of chaos, fighting, and lies instead of someone who could react calmly.
And what about the (professor) fellow who has predicted the last dozen elections based on his set of factors? What is he saying about being so wrong?
I don’t take the distaste with the constant drumbeat of polls to be any more than an observation of their uselessness to an average person or voter in a close election in a closely divided nation. I sure they serve a purpose for people making a livelihood from electoral politics but no useful information is there for me when so-and-so is ahead/behind by 2% with the margin of error of 3%. Why bother me with the news the election is inside the margin of error?
The polls were certainly better than in 2016 and 2020, but most of them were still undercounting Trump voters. Still, I did hear that the late deciders broke for Trump, so that would be part of it. People were also assuming that Trump had a 'hard ceiling' at about 47%-48% and he certainly broke through that. At the end of the day, Harris ran a poor campaign that inspired nobody other than those who got worked up over her race and gender. She didn't even have a catchy slogan like 'Hope' or 'Yes we can' like Obama did. (She did try that with 'Joy' but that didn't catch on, people weren't feeling the joy.) Where there were big polling misses were in those states outside of the 7 swing ones - those Texas polls that showed the race somewhat close were clearly garbage. Same with FL. But nobody was polling NJ to pick up that swing.
Stepping back it seems there may have been a kind of harmonic feedback between the polls and the Dems behavior. Kind of “the race is tight, let’s focus on turn out.” As opposed to, we have not reached out to the working class voters with a real message, so let’s do that!”
The polls, or how the Dems interpreted the polls may have fed that “excuse mill” that said Dems were right on messaging (aka: we don’t need to adapt or evolve) so let’s focus on the mechanics rather than our message.
Clearly changing their message to - we need to do better for the working class, or we were late on immigration but we’ve got it nailed down now -and by the way Trump is the only candidate in the race who has worked to make the border less secure (opposing the Langford bill)…
Too much self- congratulation not enough of challenging assumptions.
A habitual liar just got elected to the White House. Why would anyone believe a random person contacted by a polling agency would be absolutely honest?....
Chris you warned us and cautioned us constantly and often that the polls were not absolutely predictable and a reliable indicator of the final result.
As we know now that the swing states were all decided by a very small margin. Despite trump winning Texas and Florida by huge margins, he still had tight races in the swing states. If a few trends went the other way she could have won all 7.
I still think the unreported story of 2024 is the 14 million democrats that stayed home. They didn't switch to trump because he got 2 million less votes than in 2020, 74 million to 72 million.
So assuming all the exit polls and demographics are correct about the increased margins for trump about men and Latino voters, it makes it even worse for Kamala.
The democrats let 14+ million voters at home. That's the true story of her defeat. Not the Latino and male and increasing black share. Where did the 14 million voters go?
I was shocked at the low turnout as she had a fantastic ground game.
Well said!!!!!
Momentary flash of brilliance. It doesn't happen often, but thank you.
Patience. We don't really know if the people who stayed home were Democratic voters.
There are still almost 13 million votes not reported. Based on current percentages, Trump could well end up with 78 million votes.
The more I look at it, the biggest story of the election was the Democratic turnout. Trump got 2 million fewer votes than in 2020. Harris got 13 million fewer than Biden in 2020. Why was the Democratic turnout so low?
Other than the fact that the future of democracy was on the line - and your bodily autonomy if you’re a woman - was there anything about the Harris campaign to get you fired up? That made you say “Yes! That’s a problem that needs solving and I like your ideas”?
Medicare for All? Huge tax cuts for working families to compensate for high prices? Huge tax increases on the super wealthy? Proposals to punish corporations that simultaneously layoff workers while posting record earnings?? ANYTHING at all - other than “I’m not Trump”?
Flood the zone worked. As did simple, 2-5 word messages. Dems can't do this because we think too much and have to not offend members of a broad coalition. I knew Kamala was in trouble in early September, when the pro-Trump PAC ads on TV here were simply visuals of gas and grocery prices between early 2020 and early 2024. And later, the Trump=Safety, Kamala=Crime family of yard signs. The Dems had nothing comparable.
We don't know that yet. If you look at the directional data, it appears that a large number of 2020 voters didn't show and a significant number moved from Biden to Trump. That could be wrong. Looking at the data a month from now will reveal the truth.
I was wondering about that, how many Biden voters flipped to Trump. And vice versa. That would be great to know.
Actually, there are still about 13 million uncounted votes. I went through the current numbers, their % reported, and current percentages and, assuming the current percentages persist, Trump could end up with around 78 million votes which is 4 million more than he got in 2020.
One of the last things I said to my wife when we gave up on Tuesday night was, "The polls were right." She is a poll skeptic. I always want to know who is doing the polling. The good polls, Iowa notwithstanding, were pretty close.
I live in a city where people are stunned and outraged by the outcome. Me, too. But Trump will be Trump. In two years he'll lose both house of Congress. And remember, the day he is installed he becomes a lame duck. Well, all right, even more lame than usual. My index finger became weary from hitting "delete" on so many fund-raising appeals late in the campaign. Yesterday and today my index finger is tired from deleting all of the emails explaining how/why Trump won and the Dems lost. My mental health has been so much improved by refusing to read so much garbage about, er, so much garbage.
With the elections being as close as they are, and with polls having margins of error of 3-5 percent, I ask..what is the point of polling? As far as I can tell there is none.
And another silver lining for Dems/America is the Susie Wiles as COS pick. Trump must have been listening to adults, not Don jr and Eric. Let's hope that continues.
Your support of the pollsters reminds me of losing teams in sports saying….if we had just converted that third down….if he had just caught that pass in the end zone….if that field goal kick had been good…..then we would have won….but instead we got BLOWN OUT!!!!….aside from banning polls (impossible I know)…the pollsters ought to figure out why 13 million people were so apathetic that they didn’t vote…..THAT would be really fucking important info to have…..for BOTH sides!!!!
Good stuff. I find it difficult to believe that the margin of error was 3 pts +/- on all these polls, but point taken.
But I still side with Jon Stewart. Never again will I give any credence whatsoever to polls. Especially Allan Lichtman’s infallible 13 keys….
Chris, I would argue a bit with your statement, “I get why people — especially people on the left — are mad. Because they were told it was a toss-up race and Trump won every single swing state. Like, that’s not close!” Most people that I know are upset because we now have 4 more years of chaos, fighting, and lies instead of someone who could react calmly.
And what about the (professor) fellow who has predicted the last dozen elections based on his set of factors? What is he saying about being so wrong?
Hey Chris,I can’t think about the horror to come. but I just want to say that your photo for your new show is not as attractive as you really are!
Oh, Chris, thank you for the playlist. It's working better than drugs to calm my nerves. 💜
I don’t take the distaste with the constant drumbeat of polls to be any more than an observation of their uselessness to an average person or voter in a close election in a closely divided nation. I sure they serve a purpose for people making a livelihood from electoral politics but no useful information is there for me when so-and-so is ahead/behind by 2% with the margin of error of 3%. Why bother me with the news the election is inside the margin of error?
The polls were certainly better than in 2016 and 2020, but most of them were still undercounting Trump voters. Still, I did hear that the late deciders broke for Trump, so that would be part of it. People were also assuming that Trump had a 'hard ceiling' at about 47%-48% and he certainly broke through that. At the end of the day, Harris ran a poor campaign that inspired nobody other than those who got worked up over her race and gender. She didn't even have a catchy slogan like 'Hope' or 'Yes we can' like Obama did. (She did try that with 'Joy' but that didn't catch on, people weren't feeling the joy.) Where there were big polling misses were in those states outside of the 7 swing ones - those Texas polls that showed the race somewhat close were clearly garbage. Same with FL. But nobody was polling NJ to pick up that swing.
No matter how you look at it.. the polls did NOT tell us anything. They are not used correctly. They should ONLY be used by campaigns… not media.
When Chuck Todd told you that 3 people swayed a poll…that’s a clue that they’re not worth quoting.
I hope media stops highlighting polls because much of the American public think they’re BS.
Very well said about polling.
Stepping back it seems there may have been a kind of harmonic feedback between the polls and the Dems behavior. Kind of “the race is tight, let’s focus on turn out.” As opposed to, we have not reached out to the working class voters with a real message, so let’s do that!”
The polls, or how the Dems interpreted the polls may have fed that “excuse mill” that said Dems were right on messaging (aka: we don’t need to adapt or evolve) so let’s focus on the mechanics rather than our message.
Clearly changing their message to - we need to do better for the working class, or we were late on immigration but we’ve got it nailed down now -and by the way Trump is the only candidate in the race who has worked to make the border less secure (opposing the Langford bill)…
Too much self- congratulation not enough of challenging assumptions.
This applies to the media as well.
i say the polls were mostly correct. but people depend on polls too much and expect them to be predictive of what will happen.
It’s weird that the betting markets had it right the whole time. Polling is dead. Long live Kalshi!
Kalinin had Harris with a 70-30 advantage in popular vote throughout the year 😭
Popular vote doesn’t determine the election. Your point still stands, but they did have Pres. Trump winning.