CHRIS CRUCIAL: What a Trump electoral landslide looks like

PLUS: Bob Menendez is GUILTY

This is my nightly newsletter — delivering all the political news you need from the day that was. If you are a paid subscriber, don’t forget that I am doing a live chat during the GOP convention starting at 10 pm eastern tonight. (I will send a link later!) If you aren’t a paid subscriber, I am running a sale right now! Just $5 a month and $50 for the year! Join us!👇

1. How big is the 2024 playing field?

On Tuesday at the Republican National Convention, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio laid out a nightmare scenario for Democrats: An expansion of the 2024 map into states previously considered safe for President Joe Biden.

At a breakfast hosted by the Republican Party of Florida, Fabrizio listed Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey and New Mexico as “toss up” races, adding: “And believe it or not, there’s another state up north called Maine.”

Which is all well and good. Fabrizio can make any claims he likes! But the real question is how much truth there is in what he’s saying.

The answer is, well, at least some.

Take Virginia. Two polls have come out in the Commonwealth in the last few days. One, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, showed President Biden at 49% to 46% for Trump. Another, from Virginia Commonwealth University, had the race Trump 39% Biden 36%.

And the Times polling average has it close as well:

Or Minnesota. There’s been less recent polling in the state but an Emerson College survey done in the middle of June had the race Biden 51% to Trump’s 49%. McLaughlin released his own data — earlier last month — that actually showed Trump ahead in Minnesota.

The amount of quality polling is even more sparse in New Mexico and New Jersey. And I think either one of those states is a heavier lift for Trump than Virginia or Minnesota. In 2020, Trump lost New Jersey by 16 points and New Mexico by 10.

While Trump also lost Virginia by 10 in 2020, the state went on to elect GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin the following year, which suggests to me there is a path to statewide victory for Republicans. In Minnesota, Trump lost by 7 points in 2020.

What would the map look like if Trump turned not just the six swing states we regularly talk about — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — but also Virginia and Minnesota and even New Hampshire, which I think could be more competitive than people are talking about right now?

It would look like this:

And, if everything went south for Biden and Democrats — and New Mexico and New Jersey and Maine somehow fell — the map would look like this:

If Trump won with 339 electoral votes, it would be the largest electoral vote haul for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988 when George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral votes over Michael Dukakis.

Now, to be clear, I do NOT expect that to happen. While I do think Trump is the favorite to win this fall, I don’t expect a landslide victory. We are just too polarized as a country. (Readers: Please go back and read that paragraph before you excoriate me in the comments section. I DO NOT expect that to happen.)

The danger for Biden, however, is that the more the playing field grows in Trump’s favor, the more paths open up for the former president to get to 270 electoral votes. And the narrower Biden’s path grows.

Just as a reminder: Biden needs to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — and only lose Arizona, Nevada and Arizona in terms of states he won in 2020 — in order to get to 270 electoral votes. Here’s that map:

If Biden is suddenly having to spend money — and time — in Minnesota or Virginia as well as in the other six swing states he is going to be stretched very thin. And he may well find himself plugging a leak in his electoral wall only to see another one spring up somewhere else on the map. And he only has so many hands and feet.

None of this is to say Biden can’t win. He can! But the reality of the electoral map is that it was always going to be a narrow road to 270 for Biden. If Virginia or Minnesota or even New Mexico is suddenly in play, Biden is going to have to walk an absolute electoral tight rope to win.

2. Bob Menendez’s time is up

On Tuesday in a Manhattan courtroom, New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez was found guilty on 16 counts of bribery, wire fraud and extortion.

“I’ve never been anything but a patriot of my country and for my country,” Menendez said after the ruling, which centered on his dealings with Egypt when he served as the ranking Democratic member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer immediately called for Menendez to resign his seat.

Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen took it a step further, suggesting that the Senate move to expel Menendez if he won’t resign. In order to go that route, two-thirds of the 100 Senators would have to vote for Menendez’s expulsion. He would be only the 16th Senator ever expelled.

Whether he is expelled or not, Menendez’s political career is almost certainly over. Rep. Andy Kim won the Democratic primary for Menendez’s seat and will face Republican Curtis Bashaw in the fall. Menendez has suggested he could run as an independent for his seat.

An independent bid is probably the last thing on Menendez’s mind today, however. He will be sentenced October 29 and faces the possibility of decades behind bars.

3. Nikki Haley’s Night

Night two of the GOP convention will be — for me — highlighted by the speech from former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Until this past weekend, Haley was not expected to speak. But she accepted a last-minute invite and, despite her warnings about the electoral dangers for Republicans of nominating Trump, she will be addressing the convention crowd tonight.

The invite, which came after Trump was injured by an assassin’s bullet on Saturday afternoon, is clearly aimed at trying to show that the GOP is fully united behind Trump. Haley was the last contender to drop out of the 2024 primary race and continued to receive double-digit support — despite not actively campaigning — until the end of primary season.

It’s not clear when Haley will speak. She could be — as South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott was on Monday night — relegated to the 8 pm hour when the national TV audience is tiny.

If, however, she is given a primetime spot — the 10 pm-11 pm hour on the East Coast is the most coveted — it would be a tangible sign that Trump’s post-shooting pledges of unity are more than just talk.

The other big question is what Haley says in her speech. Does she go the Ted Cruz route in 2016 — refusing to endorse Trump from the podium? Or does she throw her lot entirely in with the presidential nominee in an acknowledgement that she probably has no future in the party if she doesn’t?

My bet is she endorses Trump. Haley is nothing if not a) savvy and b) ambitious. And she has to know that Trump has offered an olive branch and, if she refuses to take it, it won’t be offered again.

A reminder: I will be doing a live chat — via Substack — for paid subscribers from 10 pm-11 pm tonight. Come watch the convention with me! Ask questions! Provide snark! Watch awkward dancing!

If you’re not a paid subscriber, now is the time. I am running a sale through the end of the GOP convention. It’s just $5 a month or $50 for the whole year!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I would love you to do something. And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re going to win.” — Donald Trump to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during a leaked phone call

ONE GOOD CHART

Who — or more accurately what — do you trust? The new Gallup poll on institutions suggests the answer is: Not much.

SONG OF THE DAY

I am a HUGE fan of The Gaslight Anthem. Their album “History Books” is one of my favorites of 2024 so far. The band just released an expanded edition of the album with five re-worked songs on it — including “Little Fires” featuring Bully. Love.

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