Maga Cult?? You're obviously a Communist/Globalist. Maga is a movement that started long before Trump took it over. It will continue after Trump is gone. It's America First! Globalization is a Fairly Tail!
You don't even know what a "Communist" is. This isn't the 1950s and shouting "Communist" at people you disagree with isn't effective. MAGA is most definitely a cult of personality that will fall apart when we're finally rid of Convicted Felon Trump.
I'm 67 yrs old and have been around the world and yes you are a Communist/ Globalist/Progressive. They are all the same. Democrats have great ideas but they don't work. You're a follower, a sheep, that's why our founding fathers set up the Electoral College. To save us from you!
I am not and you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. But you're a MAGAt, so that's not surprising. You're in a cult. Get the help you obviously and desperately need.
I have a BS in Business & a Minor in Economics, so go pound sand and get ready for Trump to be President. Like in 1980 the Debate will be the nail in Harris's coffin, that is if she shows up! 😎
I'm so NOT impressed. I have a BA and a JD, and am enjoying watching you MAGAts lose it as Convicted Felon Trump is circling the drain. The prosecutor will be taking down the felon on Tuesday.
Trump has essentially taken over a minority party, carved it up and made it smaller. While Haley may now be drinking the Trump Kool-Aid her never Trump supporters likely aren’t. They only voted for her because she was anti Trump.
While everyone gets depressed over these posts, remember that Trump may have just doomed his party. The media, who chase shiny things for ratings aren’t going to tell you about something that’s likely to happen in the future. They can’t tell that story. Yet. lol
Common David, no fault of Chris? He's writing the posts. He and only him decides what to post. It's his Newsletter.He could have decided to write the great things Biden had and continues to do but instead he chooses to write depressing posts about Biden.
That has never been Chris' focus. He reports on the politics/horserace side of things. There are other reporters who focus on the day to day accomplishments of presidents. I'm a fan of Chris because he has always been one of the best horserace journalists out there and you can sense that he loves that side of politics. If you are looking for advocacy journalism, you are looking in the wrong place.
After the assassination attempt & another lousy performance by Biden with Lester Holt, I made a conscious decision today to stop following politics. I've resigned myself to the fact that we live in a predominately red country and that Trump will win. I'm almost 74 years old and to spend this much emotional and mental capital on something that disturbs me every day is not good for me.
I've always loved politics and sports. Guess I'll continue to follow my hometown team, the Phillies, who are doing quite well.
I usually watch MSNBC a few hours a day but since the RNC Convention holds no interest for me, I've found other ways to spend my time and it's been liberating.
If Trump turns the United States into a fascist country and he becomes the King, other than vote against him, there's nothing I can do about as it seems that the force is with him. Teflon Don doesn't even begin to cover it. He's one lucky motherfucker is all I can say, even though he's evil.
so...I'll be tuning out and what will be, will be. It's too exhausting and mentally draining.
Love Chris for providing this platform and have enjoyed interacting with other subscribers.
I totally understand your view. I have been trying to detach, and it may be necessary to preserve sanity. It was depressing enough that a know-nothing , malignant narcissist, who had a failed term in office, could even be a serious candidate .But now it's unbearable to consider that he might win big. We're captive , on the one hand , to Trump's noxious base of the ignorant and the greedy, and on the other hand, to the Biden's magical thinking and the blind loyalty of a hefty % of hardcore Ds.
I one hundred percent agree with you, Elaine. I will vote for Biden, but I feel that it is utterly hopeless at this point. So depressing. I do emotionally much better when I do not follow every day the more and more horrible news.
Glad there was a judge somewhere who wasn’t afraid to say Menendez was guilty and not look for some loophole to wiggle him through.
Ms. Haley is, in my opinion, both foolish and ambitious at the same time(if that’s possible). If she endorses him with the idea she will get an appointment of some kind she is liable to be fooled. It will be interesting to hear what she has to say.
Even if Trump wins (I just threw up in my mouth a little bit after I wrote that…), if we can keep the Senate and retake the House, maybe, just maybe, we won’t go to hell in a handbasket. But if voters stay home, every “down ballot” race becomes WAY more difficult.
This obsession with polls needs to stop. Instead look at what the well constructed models are telling us. The good models are more reliable than these noises called polls. The models look at more enduring fundamental factors than just calling people and asking them who they plan to vote this far out from the election. For example the 538 election forecast model gives Biden 53% of winning the election and Trump some 47 % as of today.This is the exact opposite of what the noises called polls are telling us now and yet for their parochial reasons, the Political Industrial Complex keep pointing to these noises(polls). Now, this is not to say that all these models are perfect but they are more scientific than these polls. And I also know that there are some models out there that give Trump an edge Biden. In the end the only polls or model that matter is when real people vote in November. All the other conjectures, innuendos etc are just noises, period
And Nate Silver’s model which includes “fundamental enduring factors” as in the 538 model, which Nate helped design, gives Biden a 30.2% chance of winning with Biden 244 predicted electoral votes to Trump’s 293.6 electoral votes. So choose your poison. I for one use all of these to provide data points, which is all they are at this point data. I’m not about to make any prediction based on any of them at this point as they will all change once all of the conventions are over, which btw both then 538 and Nate’s models factor in the convention bumps which will be see in the polls.
So there may be hope. Trump may only be able to pull in a few more percentage points of support. But there is still the Biden wildcard, which all are aware of. So far so good, he seems to be doing OK now, with only the occasional flub and meanderings. As opposed to Trump, who is all meanderings.
Sen. Menendez, I knew Sen. Harrison Williams, I served with him. I knew Sen. Harrison Williams. He was a friend of mine ... Sen. Menendez, you just might be Sen. Harrison Williams.
So Chris: what do you make of FiveThirtyEight most recent post-assassination polls showing Biden with 277 and Trump with 261 EC votes? How does *that* factor into your thinking?
OK, I won’t make *much* of a point in you using polls when they agree with your “take”, but not when they don’t, but I think it’s fairly interesting that POST assassination attempt and during the RNC Convention, when a small “bump” in Trump’s numbers were to be expected, a very reputable 538 comes out with a clearer path to EC victory for Biden instead.
In the same way as an uncalibrated thermometer can’t give the *precise* temperature , but can clearly tell you if it’s getting warmer or colder, even methodologically flawed polls, when compared to the same company’s previous polls, can give a bit of a revelation in terms of *trends*, though not necessarily ultimate results.
I’m going to dig a bit deeper into their results and try to make a bit more sense out of them….
But Chris what Left-of -Center is referring to is not a national poll. Rather, it's an election forecast model. Check it out at ABC'S 538 FORECAST MODEL
Nate Silver currently has Trump winning all the swing states on his electoral college map. For me it comes down to am I am going to believe the polls or my own eyes and ears. Also, to win the electoral college Dems need to win the popular vote by a few points based on past elections.
Good post! Good for thought. I think the idea of “quality polling” is an oxymoron. There’s absolutely no standards for it and democrats over performing special election results over the last few years indicates polling isn’t capturing reality very well. Close elections clearly don’t help. Given MN has a huge Muslim population and are still stinging from police racial discrimination issues which Trump exacerbated, It’s unlikely to flip. It’s actually a democratic model. Florida was also targeted as a purple state (Congressionally at least). The key to swing states is the ground game the parties have. Republicans have none. So we will see.
Nikki Haley is deluding herself if she thinks she has a future in the GOP, a/k/a the MAGAt cult.
Maga Cult?? You're obviously a Communist/Globalist. Maga is a movement that started long before Trump took it over. It will continue after Trump is gone. It's America First! Globalization is a Fairly Tail!
You don't even know what a "Communist" is. This isn't the 1950s and shouting "Communist" at people you disagree with isn't effective. MAGA is most definitely a cult of personality that will fall apart when we're finally rid of Convicted Felon Trump.
I'm 67 yrs old and have been around the world and yes you are a Communist/ Globalist/Progressive. They are all the same. Democrats have great ideas but they don't work. You're a follower, a sheep, that's why our founding fathers set up the Electoral College. To save us from you!
I am not and you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. But you're a MAGAt, so that's not surprising. You're in a cult. Get the help you obviously and desperately need.
I have a BS in Business & a Minor in Economics, so go pound sand and get ready for Trump to be President. Like in 1980 the Debate will be the nail in Harris's coffin, that is if she shows up! 😎
I'm so NOT impressed. I have a BA and a JD, and am enjoying watching you MAGAts lose it as Convicted Felon Trump is circling the drain. The prosecutor will be taking down the felon on Tuesday.
Trump has essentially taken over a minority party, carved it up and made it smaller. While Haley may now be drinking the Trump Kool-Aid her never Trump supporters likely aren’t. They only voted for her because she was anti Trump.
While everyone gets depressed over these posts, remember that Trump may have just doomed his party. The media, who chase shiny things for ratings aren’t going to tell you about something that’s likely to happen in the future. They can’t tell that story. Yet. lol
Nikki Haley is the literal textbook definition of “disingenuous”. And Chris, no fault of yours whatsoever, but your posts are starting to depress me.
Common David, no fault of Chris? He's writing the posts. He and only him decides what to post. It's his Newsletter.He could have decided to write the great things Biden had and continues to do but instead he chooses to write depressing posts about Biden.
That has never been Chris' focus. He reports on the politics/horserace side of things. There are other reporters who focus on the day to day accomplishments of presidents. I'm a fan of Chris because he has always been one of the best horserace journalists out there and you can sense that he loves that side of politics. If you are looking for advocacy journalism, you are looking in the wrong place.
Well said. It’s not his job to be a cheerleader. I want facts and opinion.
😂 All the great things.
Very depressing stuff indeed. These constant posts ought to depress the vote enough for Trump to win. Then Chris will have been right all along.
After the assassination attempt & another lousy performance by Biden with Lester Holt, I made a conscious decision today to stop following politics. I've resigned myself to the fact that we live in a predominately red country and that Trump will win. I'm almost 74 years old and to spend this much emotional and mental capital on something that disturbs me every day is not good for me.
I've always loved politics and sports. Guess I'll continue to follow my hometown team, the Phillies, who are doing quite well.
I usually watch MSNBC a few hours a day but since the RNC Convention holds no interest for me, I've found other ways to spend my time and it's been liberating.
If Trump turns the United States into a fascist country and he becomes the King, other than vote against him, there's nothing I can do about as it seems that the force is with him. Teflon Don doesn't even begin to cover it. He's one lucky motherfucker is all I can say, even though he's evil.
so...I'll be tuning out and what will be, will be. It's too exhausting and mentally draining.
Love Chris for providing this platform and have enjoyed interacting with other subscribers.
I totally understand your view. I have been trying to detach, and it may be necessary to preserve sanity. It was depressing enough that a know-nothing , malignant narcissist, who had a failed term in office, could even be a serious candidate .But now it's unbearable to consider that he might win big. We're captive , on the one hand , to Trump's noxious base of the ignorant and the greedy, and on the other hand, to the Biden's magical thinking and the blind loyalty of a hefty % of hardcore Ds.
I one hundred percent agree with you, Elaine. I will vote for Biden, but I feel that it is utterly hopeless at this point. So depressing. I do emotionally much better when I do not follow every day the more and more horrible news.
Glad there was a judge somewhere who wasn’t afraid to say Menendez was guilty and not look for some loophole to wiggle him through.
Ms. Haley is, in my opinion, both foolish and ambitious at the same time(if that’s possible). If she endorses him with the idea she will get an appointment of some kind she is liable to be fooled. It will be interesting to hear what she has to say.
I understand it's GOP week, but there's not a lot of excitement in Dem-land, especially when the drink of choice is Geritol.
My biggest fear is that the independent voters Biden needs to squeak by will simply stay home, and basically hand Trump the win....
That’s the fear we *all* have, Thomas.
Even if Trump wins (I just threw up in my mouth a little bit after I wrote that…), if we can keep the Senate and retake the House, maybe, just maybe, we won’t go to hell in a handbasket. But if voters stay home, every “down ballot” race becomes WAY more difficult.
THAT’S my own biggest fear….
Geritol!!😂😂😂
This obsession with polls needs to stop. Instead look at what the well constructed models are telling us. The good models are more reliable than these noises called polls. The models look at more enduring fundamental factors than just calling people and asking them who they plan to vote this far out from the election. For example the 538 election forecast model gives Biden 53% of winning the election and Trump some 47 % as of today.This is the exact opposite of what the noises called polls are telling us now and yet for their parochial reasons, the Political Industrial Complex keep pointing to these noises(polls). Now, this is not to say that all these models are perfect but they are more scientific than these polls. And I also know that there are some models out there that give Trump an edge Biden. In the end the only polls or model that matter is when real people vote in November. All the other conjectures, innuendos etc are just noises, period
And Nate Silver’s model which includes “fundamental enduring factors” as in the 538 model, which Nate helped design, gives Biden a 30.2% chance of winning with Biden 244 predicted electoral votes to Trump’s 293.6 electoral votes. So choose your poison. I for one use all of these to provide data points, which is all they are at this point data. I’m not about to make any prediction based on any of them at this point as they will all change once all of the conventions are over, which btw both then 538 and Nate’s models factor in the convention bumps which will be see in the polls.
So there may be hope. Trump may only be able to pull in a few more percentage points of support. But there is still the Biden wildcard, which all are aware of. So far so good, he seems to be doing OK now, with only the occasional flub and meanderings. As opposed to Trump, who is all meanderings.
Sen. Menendez, I knew Sen. Harrison Williams, I served with him. I knew Sen. Harrison Williams. He was a friend of mine ... Sen. Menendez, you just might be Sen. Harrison Williams.
So Chris: what do you make of FiveThirtyEight most recent post-assassination polls showing Biden with 277 and Trump with 261 EC votes? How does *that* factor into your thinking?
I think national polls are (kind of) meaningless?
If Democrats really believed the Biden was going to win, they wouldn't be spending all this time and energy trying to get rid of him!
OK, I won’t make *much* of a point in you using polls when they agree with your “take”, but not when they don’t, but I think it’s fairly interesting that POST assassination attempt and during the RNC Convention, when a small “bump” in Trump’s numbers were to be expected, a very reputable 538 comes out with a clearer path to EC victory for Biden instead.
In the same way as an uncalibrated thermometer can’t give the *precise* temperature , but can clearly tell you if it’s getting warmer or colder, even methodologically flawed polls, when compared to the same company’s previous polls, can give a bit of a revelation in terms of *trends*, though not necessarily ultimate results.
I’m going to dig a bit deeper into their results and try to make a bit more sense out of them….
It seems as if a minority of Congressional Democrats don’t want Biden to run. The rest back him. Are they all looking at the same polls?
But Chris what Left-of -Center is referring to is not a national poll. Rather, it's an election forecast model. Check it out at ABC'S 538 FORECAST MODEL
Nate Silver currently has Trump winning all the swing states on his electoral college map. For me it comes down to am I am going to believe the polls or my own eyes and ears. Also, to win the electoral college Dems need to win the popular vote by a few points based on past elections.
Good post! Good for thought. I think the idea of “quality polling” is an oxymoron. There’s absolutely no standards for it and democrats over performing special election results over the last few years indicates polling isn’t capturing reality very well. Close elections clearly don’t help. Given MN has a huge Muslim population and are still stinging from police racial discrimination issues which Trump exacerbated, It’s unlikely to flip. It’s actually a democratic model. Florida was also targeted as a purple state (Congressionally at least). The key to swing states is the ground game the parties have. Republicans have none. So we will see.