Sadly have to agree. I'm normally charitable towards my fellow voters, but honestly Trump, with his reptilian survival & maneuvering instincts, has managed to expose and exploit how lazy, pampered, uninformed, unserious, apathetic, and somewhat stupid we have become as a society at large ("fat, dumb, and happy" as the old phrase goes - no intention to shame anyone's body shape here). 'Apathetic' because we can't even crack 70% of eligible voters bothering to vote - shame on us. We'll get the President we as a society deserve. My PhD advisor used to say that the final thesis defense was more of a test of the advisor (the professor) than the doctoral candidate - it's a bit like that here, where our elected choice for President reflects more on us as a society rather than solely on the candidate elected POTUS.
You are probably, but partially, right. I have a far more cynical view. First, a public that thinks it's worse off economically than during the height of the pandemic is just plain stupid. Second, political nihilism. The public resents ineffective government, which recent Republican Congresses have turned into an art form. But the public can't or won't toss their incumbent reps, so blame for dysfunction is transferred to the incumbent president (or VP).
Substantial increase in enthusiasm, especially on the Dem side, around here and with respect to 2020. I will be surprised if turnout is significantly lower.
I agree with you, Daniel, about the turnout. According to NBC News, 21,550,809 mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast nationally, and 55,056,724 mail-in and early in-person votes have been requested nationally. I don't know the numbers for 2016 or 2020, but it seems like these numbers are MUCH higher than either of those 2 election years (but NBC News doesn't mention the percentage of voters there are in this country).
I tend to agree with you Daniel because I think people see this as just as important as the 2020 election and perhaps more important, on both sides. The math doesn't work here. There are roughly 10 million more people in the US than in 2020 and young people seem fired up to vote. Will they? If they do, I believe Harris will win. If they don't, yikes. However, Chris maybe talking about the percentage of voters. That could be true.
It’s not surprising that Chris claims ignorance whether Trump said “I need the kind of generals Hitler had” as his inner anal journalist takes over requiring irrefutable proof.
In the real world, journalism very rarely obtains irrefutable proof but more so relies on what reliable sources say was said.
I have no such shifting standard and it is a 99.99% surety that Trump did, in fact say it as it goes to the inner core of his very being as a result of his extreme narcissist personality disorder.
The other quote is just as telling and is just as believable as it goes to Trump’s core of bigotry and his famous cheapskate obsession with money and screwing people that owe him while refusing to be a “sucker”
Jeffery Goldberg’s excellent article starts with the story of “Vanessa Guillén, a 20-year-old Army private, was bludgeoned to death by a fellow soldier at Fort Hood, in Texas.”
Eventually, in front to TV cameras (where else) with the family Trump promises “If I can help you out with the funeral, I’ll help—I’ll help you with that,” he said. “I’ll help you out. Financially, I’ll help you.”
Later when presented with the bill of $60,000 the response is pure Trump…
“Trump became angry. “It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a fucking Mexican!” He turned to his chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and issued an order: “Don’t pay it!” Later that day, he was still agitated. “Can you believe it?” he said, according to a witness. “Fucking people, trying to rip me off.””
This man shows us time after time after time that he is totally unfit to be president and is an existential threat to America.
I'm curious why you think voter turnout will be less in 2024 than in 2020?
With Trump having continued to showcase the most base characteristics human beings are capable of and his continued onslaught on Democracy I would think the same number of folks who saw that and voted against it in 2020 would turn out. Then add the number of folks who have either fallen for his snake oil in the last 4 years plus the number of folks who have awoken to his threat and you could see higher numbers than 2020.
Does the average American know who Adolf Hitler was and what he did with several millions Jews?
And is there really such a difference between killing Jews in gas chambers and the way Trump is planning to mass deport people from US, sending them most likely to a certain death or prison in their country of origin? And do the Americans think that Trump is NOT going to do what he says he will do?
He will be a lame duck in the WH and his surrogates will run the show🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️. Absolutely scary that he is even close to winning. May we hope for a real miracle🌟
Two things: Filtering out that I have little faith in polling, in a race Chris, and most everyone, says is historically close, a 0.5 gain is not "nothing".
Secondly, if there are any remaining 'undecided' voters--and I seriously have my doubts, 15 million plus have already voted--at this point they might as well burn the ad money. Political ads started one minute and forty-five seconds after the mid-terms. At best people have tuned them out. At worst, they're angry that they are constantly in our faced....I am the later, BTW....
First, I have to say the amount of money being spent in politics is beyond obscene. That money could provide pre-natal care for every pregnant woman in America, or a free hot lunch for every kid in school. Thank you SCOTUS, 2010. "Not liking what Harris is selling." It shouldn't matter what she is selling. She is not trump and that should be enough. I point you to the very following story. If demanding complete loyalty from your military generals doesn't scare the bejezus out of you, it should. and tomorrow, can we expect a column about what should worry Trump's campaign?
1. If polling is junk, Harris doesn’t have a problem (Hint: don’t rely polling to determine the race standings)
2. If Trump wants to be a dictator, he should know that they tend not to have happy endings
3. The mainstream media cares about $, their own longevity, not American democracy
That French resistance leader I chatted with in 1982. She did her best to eliminate (with guns) the dictatorial police that were oppressing her countrymen at the time against the constitution. Was she a terrorist or a freedom fighter?
1. Maybe so. Maybe not. The point is with dirty data, you just don’t know
2. Jan 6th and kids in cages was just trolling? lol
3. You don’t want democracy either huh? It’s un American for the media (or anyone else) to value $ over democracy. That’s worth fighting for, don’t you think? Besides absolutely no one trusts the media anymore. They’ve destroyed themselves.
Because in 2020 they loosened all sorts of rules because of the pandemic. It was far easier to vote absentee or early. Most of the rules have been changed back
Have you looked at the data on early voting so far? Single day early voting records are being broken - early voting looks strong, which I assume means turnout overall will be high.
Very wrong assumption. I don't know what he's basing his assumption on.Probably he( Chris) knows that when more people vote Democrats win as in 2020. More people are going to vote in November than they did in 2016.And Harris is going to win. Just look at the early voting numbers for ggoodNess sake
The most important thing is people have to get up and vote. Democrats have to get up and vote. Independent have to get up and vote. They have to get their asses to the poll and vote.
I'm offering a few observations here as someone who spent many years in the advertising business. First, While repetition in advertising is good, you can reach a point of saturation. After that, you see sharply diminished returns on excess advertising. Second, as a medium for reaching the mass market, or even a targeted audience, television ain't what it used to be. We see stats on television spending because that is easy to measure; I would be interested to know what else is being spent on other media , especially digital. Third, big time politicians always fight the last war, because that is how they got where they are. In 2016, Trump was vastly outspent by Hillary Clinton, but he ran rings around her in earned media. If he wins again in 2024, it will be time to rethink massive expenditures for advertising in a rapidly shrinking medium. Put another way, it may not matter how many knives you bring to a gun fight.
Don't hang your hat on early voting. In the grand scheme of things, it means very little. This election will be close, but I think Trump's got it (sadly).
Time to defend Chris. His point re turnout being down from 2020 is likely based on the pandemic and how that inflated the voting numbers. ( millions of Americans had nothing else to do ). Trumps bungling of it was also front and center in our minds, as we're his daily insane tweets.
Also- the reason the ads aren't affecting the poll numbers is because 46-47 percent of the electorate are duped MAGA lifers. That being the case, Kamala has only a percentage point or two to work with.
I disagree that more people voted in 2020 because they had "nothing else to do". At least in PA, schools were back in session and shutdowns had been lifted. I was working in the office (masked) and my husband was working from home. I wouldn't say things were totally back to normal, but school and work weren't really disrupted by the time November rolled around.
While 47% may well be Trump's ceiling, not all of those supporters are MAGA cultists. Probably 20% are "always Republicans", often multi-generational Republicans, who will never, ever vote for a Democrat, no matter how awful the Republican candidate is.
Why Kamala Harris is not doing better with the significant expenditures of campaign funds?
Maybe it's an oversimplification and/or a cliche...
Trump has ripped open the underbelly of America and exposed a pretty deep and historical vein of racism and sexism.
Do you honestly think the country is going to put a Black Female in the White House??
Donald Trump is simply unfit to be President of this Great country and yet...
I refuse to accept the rationalizations that political experts and pundits offer as to all the "other" reasons folks are willing to vote for Trump.
Trump election, in my opinion, as President was a direct response to the Obama presidency.
I'm voting for VP Harris and praying for my country.
Sadly have to agree. I'm normally charitable towards my fellow voters, but honestly Trump, with his reptilian survival & maneuvering instincts, has managed to expose and exploit how lazy, pampered, uninformed, unserious, apathetic, and somewhat stupid we have become as a society at large ("fat, dumb, and happy" as the old phrase goes - no intention to shame anyone's body shape here). 'Apathetic' because we can't even crack 70% of eligible voters bothering to vote - shame on us. We'll get the President we as a society deserve. My PhD advisor used to say that the final thesis defense was more of a test of the advisor (the professor) than the doctoral candidate - it's a bit like that here, where our elected choice for President reflects more on us as a society rather than solely on the candidate elected POTUS.
You are probably, but partially, right. I have a far more cynical view. First, a public that thinks it's worse off economically than during the height of the pandemic is just plain stupid. Second, political nihilism. The public resents ineffective government, which recent Republican Congresses have turned into an art form. But the public can't or won't toss their incumbent reps, so blame for dysfunction is transferred to the incumbent president (or VP).
I'll disagree. I think we will see the largest voter turnout in American history (in terms of number of voters).
I hope you are right!
Substantial increase in enthusiasm, especially on the Dem side, around here and with respect to 2020. I will be surprised if turnout is significantly lower.
I agree with you, Daniel, about the turnout. According to NBC News, 21,550,809 mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast nationally, and 55,056,724 mail-in and early in-person votes have been requested nationally. I don't know the numbers for 2016 or 2020, but it seems like these numbers are MUCH higher than either of those 2 election years (but NBC News doesn't mention the percentage of voters there are in this country).
I tend to agree with you Daniel because I think people see this as just as important as the 2020 election and perhaps more important, on both sides. The math doesn't work here. There are roughly 10 million more people in the US than in 2020 and young people seem fired up to vote. Will they? If they do, I believe Harris will win. If they don't, yikes. However, Chris maybe talking about the percentage of voters. That could be true.
It's a sobering thought to realize that the children who survived the Sandy Hook school shooting will be voting in their first election this year.
It’s not surprising that Chris claims ignorance whether Trump said “I need the kind of generals Hitler had” as his inner anal journalist takes over requiring irrefutable proof.
In the real world, journalism very rarely obtains irrefutable proof but more so relies on what reliable sources say was said.
I have no such shifting standard and it is a 99.99% surety that Trump did, in fact say it as it goes to the inner core of his very being as a result of his extreme narcissist personality disorder.
The other quote is just as telling and is just as believable as it goes to Trump’s core of bigotry and his famous cheapskate obsession with money and screwing people that owe him while refusing to be a “sucker”
Jeffery Goldberg’s excellent article starts with the story of “Vanessa Guillén, a 20-year-old Army private, was bludgeoned to death by a fellow soldier at Fort Hood, in Texas.”
Eventually, in front to TV cameras (where else) with the family Trump promises “If I can help you out with the funeral, I’ll help—I’ll help you with that,” he said. “I’ll help you out. Financially, I’ll help you.”
Later when presented with the bill of $60,000 the response is pure Trump…
“Trump became angry. “It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a fucking Mexican!” He turned to his chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and issued an order: “Don’t pay it!” Later that day, he was still agitated. “Can you believe it?” he said, according to a witness. “Fucking people, trying to rip me off.””
This man shows us time after time after time that he is totally unfit to be president and is an existential threat to America.
When someone shows you who he/she is the first time you better believe him/her. Per Maya Angelo
I'm curious why you think voter turnout will be less in 2024 than in 2020?
With Trump having continued to showcase the most base characteristics human beings are capable of and his continued onslaught on Democracy I would think the same number of folks who saw that and voted against it in 2020 would turn out. Then add the number of folks who have either fallen for his snake oil in the last 4 years plus the number of folks who have awoken to his threat and you could see higher numbers than 2020.
Does the average American know who Adolf Hitler was and what he did with several millions Jews?
And is there really such a difference between killing Jews in gas chambers and the way Trump is planning to mass deport people from US, sending them most likely to a certain death or prison in their country of origin? And do the Americans think that Trump is NOT going to do what he says he will do?
He will be a lame duck in the WH and his surrogates will run the show🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️. Absolutely scary that he is even close to winning. May we hope for a real miracle🌟
Two things: Filtering out that I have little faith in polling, in a race Chris, and most everyone, says is historically close, a 0.5 gain is not "nothing".
Secondly, if there are any remaining 'undecided' voters--and I seriously have my doubts, 15 million plus have already voted--at this point they might as well burn the ad money. Political ads started one minute and forty-five seconds after the mid-terms. At best people have tuned them out. At worst, they're angry that they are constantly in our faced....I am the later, BTW....
First, I have to say the amount of money being spent in politics is beyond obscene. That money could provide pre-natal care for every pregnant woman in America, or a free hot lunch for every kid in school. Thank you SCOTUS, 2010. "Not liking what Harris is selling." It shouldn't matter what she is selling. She is not trump and that should be enough. I point you to the very following story. If demanding complete loyalty from your military generals doesn't scare the bejezus out of you, it should. and tomorrow, can we expect a column about what should worry Trump's campaign?
Again, don't hold your breath for that please
Oh no, I don’t. Just going on the record. :+)
1. If polling is junk, Harris doesn’t have a problem (Hint: don’t rely polling to determine the race standings)
2. If Trump wants to be a dictator, he should know that they tend not to have happy endings
3. The mainstream media cares about $, their own longevity, not American democracy
That French resistance leader I chatted with in 1982. She did her best to eliminate (with guns) the dictatorial police that were oppressing her countrymen at the time against the constitution. Was she a terrorist or a freedom fighter?
Fun times.
1) Hint, even in garbage polls, you’d still see movement for an ad buy unless your ad buy sucked OR the recipients had already set beliefs.
2) He said he wanted loyal generals like them… it’s his way of trolling and those who can’t see that really will not have a happy ending.
3) If you want total fealty from the media to a political view, then you are the wannabe dictator. You realize this right?
1. Maybe so. Maybe not. The point is with dirty data, you just don’t know
2. Jan 6th and kids in cages was just trolling? lol
3. You don’t want democracy either huh? It’s un American for the media (or anyone else) to value $ over democracy. That’s worth fighting for, don’t you think? Besides absolutely no one trusts the media anymore. They’ve destroyed themselves.
Why do you think turnout will be down from 2020, Chris? That take seems wrong to me.
Because in 2020 they loosened all sorts of rules because of the pandemic. It was far easier to vote absentee or early. Most of the rules have been changed back
Have you looked at the data on early voting so far? Single day early voting records are being broken - early voting looks strong, which I assume means turnout overall will be high.
Very wrong assumption. I don't know what he's basing his assumption on.Probably he( Chris) knows that when more people vote Democrats win as in 2020. More people are going to vote in November than they did in 2016.And Harris is going to win. Just look at the early voting numbers for ggoodNess sake
Heard a great line on CNN- Harris and Trump are not taking the same exam. He gets
to be lawless and she has to be flawless. Truer words have not been spoken.
I could see Harris winning the National vote by a whopping 10 million votes. And losing the electoral college by a whisper….
The most important thing is people have to get up and vote. Democrats have to get up and vote. Independent have to get up and vote. They have to get their asses to the poll and vote.
I'm offering a few observations here as someone who spent many years in the advertising business. First, While repetition in advertising is good, you can reach a point of saturation. After that, you see sharply diminished returns on excess advertising. Second, as a medium for reaching the mass market, or even a targeted audience, television ain't what it used to be. We see stats on television spending because that is easy to measure; I would be interested to know what else is being spent on other media , especially digital. Third, big time politicians always fight the last war, because that is how they got where they are. In 2016, Trump was vastly outspent by Hillary Clinton, but he ran rings around her in earned media. If he wins again in 2024, it will be time to rethink massive expenditures for advertising in a rapidly shrinking medium. Put another way, it may not matter how many knives you bring to a gun fight.
Ignore both the polls and the commercials. People have made up their minds and based on early voting breakdowns, they’re voting for Harris.
I think she will win with a massive turnout.
Don't hang your hat on early voting. In the grand scheme of things, it means very little. This election will be close, but I think Trump's got it (sadly).
2 weeks to go!
Can’t wait! 😎
Time to defend Chris. His point re turnout being down from 2020 is likely based on the pandemic and how that inflated the voting numbers. ( millions of Americans had nothing else to do ). Trumps bungling of it was also front and center in our minds, as we're his daily insane tweets.
Also- the reason the ads aren't affecting the poll numbers is because 46-47 percent of the electorate are duped MAGA lifers. That being the case, Kamala has only a percentage point or two to work with.
I disagree that more people voted in 2020 because they had "nothing else to do". At least in PA, schools were back in session and shutdowns had been lifted. I was working in the office (masked) and my husband was working from home. I wouldn't say things were totally back to normal, but school and work weren't really disrupted by the time November rolled around.
While 47% may well be Trump's ceiling, not all of those supporters are MAGA cultists. Probably 20% are "always Republicans", often multi-generational Republicans, who will never, ever vote for a Democrat, no matter how awful the Republican candidate is.