CHRIS CRUCIAL: When will we know who won? 🔮

PLUS: Pennsylvania Senate moves to "toss up"

You can read what I am doing and why I am doing it here. A paid subscription comes with loads of perks including a 15-minute, one-on-one Zoom call with me! Join the movement today!👇

1. It’s not over on Nov. 5….

The first thing that anyone asks me at this time of year is: Who’s going to win? (Answer: I don’t know!)

The second thing that anyone asks me at this time of year is: When are we going to know who won?

And that answer, my friends, is complicated.

It’s complicated by three things.

First, Donald Trump has made clear, repeatedly, that he will villainize and scapegoat anyone who he believes is keeping him from winning. Publicly. And repeatedly. That is concerning — understandably — for election officials. And so, the goal of getting it totally right (and airtight) is critical.

Second, the race is going to be really close. Like REALLY close. Consider where the New York Times polling averages paint the seven swing states:

That’s 5(!!!!) of 7 swing states where either Trump or Harris have an AVERAGE lead of less than a point. That is absolutely stunning — and as I have said before — evidence of how incredibly close this race is (and will be).

Third, who calls these races? Media organizations. And is ANY media organization — given what we know about how batshit (that’s a technical term) Trump went after Fox called Arizona for Joe Biden in 2020 — going to go out on a limb? Especially when you consider that the media — and trust in it — is not exactly high at the moment?

Which means that the media is going to wait until they are DAMN sure that Trump or Kamala Harris won a swing state.

Add it ALL up and you get this: Do NOT expect a presidential winner before — I think — November 8-ish. Maybe even later.

My friend

Bruce Mehlman

, who writes the “Age of Disruption” Substack, had this chart — on when states and races have been called in past years — in his Sunday newsletter:

Just to jog your memory: The race wasn’t called for Joe Biden for 4(!) days. And Biden won by 7 million votes nationally — and with 306 electoral votes.

I anticipate — and everything I know about politics points to this — that the 2024 race is going to be closer than 2020. And it took four days to call 2020!!!

In short: Yes, election day is 15 days away. But don’t assume we will know who won for — maybe — as many as 21 more days. Prepare yourself.

2. Bob Casey in trouble? 👀

Even as the Blue Wall states have tightened at the presidential level in recent weeks, Democrats running for Senate in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have lost ground as well.

On Monday, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, a nonpartisan handicapping service, moved the the Pennsylvania Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.”

Wrote Cook Senate editor Jessica Taylor of the contest:

While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points.

Both parties’ private polling shows businessman David McCormick shoring up the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County/Pittsburgh, where he now lives. Republicans say the undecided Senate voters skew non-college and are more likely to be swayed on inflation, though they are lower-propensity voters.

Casey has been a remarkably resilient politician. He first won his seat in 2006 by crushing GOP Sen. Rick Santorum. He won with almost 55% in 2012 and with 56% in 2018.

Democrats, however, knew McCormick, a wealthy businessman who lost a 2022 GOP Senate primary to Dr. Mehmet Oz, would be formidable and Casey’s toughest challenger — and it’s turned out that way.

Pennsylvania joins Michigan and Wisconsin — all Democratic seats — in the “toss up” category, according to Cook. The West Virginia seat is rated “solid Republican” while the Montana race where Sen. Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term is “lean Republican.”

There are no GOP-held seats in the “toss up” category. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s race is “lean Republican.” And, also on Monday, Cook moved Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer’s race to “lean Republican” (from “likely Republican”). Dan Osborn, who is running as an independent (there is no Democratic nominee), is a strong candidate but, well, this is Nebraska.

Democrats have a single-seat majority currently. Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 72% chance of winning the majority.

3. Arnold Palmer enters the chat

Well, I will never, ever order an Arnold Palmer again without thinking about his, uh, endowment. Good times. Goooood times.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Well, I haven't. Unfortunately, I know the other side and they are not good, but I have not seen it.” — Donald Trump, asked whether he has seen examples of voter fraud in the election

ONE GOOD CHART

Don’t blame me — I voted for the meteor!

SONG OF THE DAY

In 1973, Stevie Nicks and Lindsay Buckingham made an album called “Buckingham Nicks.” (The cover art is INCREDIBLE.) Andrew Bird, who I LOVE, and Madison Cunningham have reimagined the songs on that album for the modern world. It’s called “Cunningham Bird.” This is “Don’t Let Me Down Again.”

Thanks for reading! This nightly newsletter brings you ALL of what you need to know from the world of politics. Think of it as a daily cheat sheet! If you want to get it in your email inbox every night at 7:30 pm, become a subscriber today!