I don’t buy these polls. And I don’t think it will be that close. I’m sorry but Trump topped out at 75 million last time. Let’s says he gets 80 this time to be charitable. Biden, who was never popular, claimed 82 million votes. She can and will win at least 90 million votes and probably more given turnout. That gives you an electoral college win. I firmly believe this and I think they’ll be able to call the election before early morning the 6th. That’s my prediction and we’ll see who had the right of it in two weeks.
I think you may be right on this one, Mark. That said, I’ll be mailing my “postcards to swing states” in about 4 days, so taking no chances and running through the tape…
I’m doing the same thing and have been phoning too. You can never do enough. That outcome if it happens will be the result of hard work by many millions of committed people.
Fox didn’t go out on a limb when they called Arizona for Biden. Fox had one of, if not the most, sophisticated decision desks in the business. Since then, the guy who ran it said they were very confident of the call. If looking at it now is calling it going out on a limb, blame Trump for his threats and sic’ing his goon followers on people doing their job.
Giving someone (Trump) that insecure the "codes" is insanity. Putin gets mad at him, says 'Comrad has smallness in his basement', and BAM, there goes my weekend....
We may never know who’s won. No one trusts anyone anymore. The media or the courts. Even if the US Supreme Court makes a decision everyone’s going to ignore it. Not least Red States. It’s a mess. We are likely to see FoxNews claim the election for Trump and MSNBC call it for Harris. too lol
Also Democrats have over performed every election for the last 2 years so Casey shouldn’t worry. Polling is complete junk. Probably because there’s so many unprecedented data points it’s impossible to create an accurate analog for the election from 1500 interviews.
I know folks who still believe in polling don’t believe me. But we may just see the end of that industry too after this election. That’s my prediction anyway.
Chris you treat these polls as if they're facts or written in stones and yet you try to second guess predictions that have stood the test of time (a.k.a Allan Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House).
Is it because you just don't like what Prof Lichtman is predicting....that Harris is going to win?
Casey, Slotkin and the Wisconsin lady are going to win comfortably. Even though I still believe the Republicans will win the Senate and the Democrats will win the Presidency and the House.
It’s dangerous to be over- confident that Kamala will win. In 2016 we were confident Hillary would win, but because 40 million registered Democrats did not vote, Trump won.
Pls join me in reaching out to moderate and low-propensity voters.
We need millions of low-propensity Democrats (a polite term for not motivated to vote), Independents, and undecideds to vote for Kamala. There are also some Republicans who are disgusted with Trump but they don’t want to “become a Democrat” – we need to inform them that voting Blue is in their best interests. WE CANNOT WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WITHOUT MILLIONS OF THEIR VOTES.
Two wonderful organizations - Galvanize Action - https://www.galvanizeaction.org/ - and One For All - https://oneforallcommittee.org/ -- are expert in crafting campaign messages to motivate people to vote Blue. They reach out to moderate women who admire Kamala but are married to Trumpers – giving them a nudge to follow their own common sense and vote for Kamala. Their messages are tried and true - created by veteran campaign experts, social psychologists, and data scientists - and are constantly tested and refined.
Another action step – Pls. support the work of kick-ass investigative reporter, Justin Glawe. Only $5 a month gives you a subscription to his mighty Substack: “American Doom” - https://www.american-doom.com/p/how-georgia-election-officials-will - Justin does deep investigations into the shenanigans of the Georgia board of elections and has uncovered a lot of malfeasance. GA Republicans are doing everything they can to depress Democratic turnout, even submitting fake Death Certificates to have registered voters removed from the rolls. Much of this is only known due to Justin Glawe’s work. He writes for The Guardian and Rolling Stone; but he’s a freelance writer. Which means, in addition to no regular paycheck, he has to pay for all the FOIA (Freedom of Information) requests on his own. It also means if he’s sued, there’s no publication to cover his legal defense. Please join me in supporting him!
I don’t buy these polls. And I don’t think it will be that close. I’m sorry but Trump topped out at 75 million last time. Let’s says he gets 80 this time to be charitable. Biden, who was never popular, claimed 82 million votes. She can and will win at least 90 million votes and probably more given turnout. That gives you an electoral college win. I firmly believe this and I think they’ll be able to call the election before early morning the 6th. That’s my prediction and we’ll see who had the right of it in two weeks.
I think you may be right on this one, Mark. That said, I’ll be mailing my “postcards to swing states” in about 4 days, so taking no chances and running through the tape…
I’m doing the same thing and have been phoning too. You can never do enough. That outcome if it happens will be the result of hard work by many millions of committed people.
Fox didn’t go out on a limb when they called Arizona for Biden. Fox had one of, if not the most, sophisticated decision desks in the business. Since then, the guy who ran it said they were very confident of the call. If looking at it now is calling it going out on a limb, blame Trump for his threats and sic’ing his goon followers on people doing their job.
Giving someone (Trump) that insecure the "codes" is insanity. Putin gets mad at him, says 'Comrad has smallness in his basement', and BAM, there goes my weekend....
We may never know who’s won. No one trusts anyone anymore. The media or the courts. Even if the US Supreme Court makes a decision everyone’s going to ignore it. Not least Red States. It’s a mess. We are likely to see FoxNews claim the election for Trump and MSNBC call it for Harris. too lol
Also Democrats have over performed every election for the last 2 years so Casey shouldn’t worry. Polling is complete junk. Probably because there’s so many unprecedented data points it’s impossible to create an accurate analog for the election from 1500 interviews.
I know folks who still believe in polling don’t believe me. But we may just see the end of that industry too after this election. That’s my prediction anyway.
I can assure you that very few people in South Jersey cheering for the Yankees.
"but I have not seen it.” — Donald Trump
Did anyone else read this and think it was going to be about Arnold Palmer's [redacted]?
That world series fan map is definitely wrong. The San Diego area is certainly not rooting for LA to win. :)
Chris you treat these polls as if they're facts or written in stones and yet you try to second guess predictions that have stood the test of time (a.k.a Allan Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House).
Is it because you just don't like what Prof Lichtman is predicting....that Harris is going to win?
Casey, Slotkin and the Wisconsin lady are going to win comfortably. Even though I still believe the Republicans will win the Senate and the Democrats will win the Presidency and the House.
Two solid predictions for the election:
It will be several days after the election before we will be certain of the winner.
Convicted Felon Trump will declare victory on election night.
Viva polling denialism! As long as it’s qualified denialism, of course.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jasonstanford/p/the-big-mistake-polls-are-making?r=1tj9xp&utm_medium=ios
It’s not really gonna be that close.
No it won’t. Trump is going down-hard.
Darth Vader: “The Delusion is strong with one.”
Folks, let’s roll up our sleeves!
It’s dangerous to be over- confident that Kamala will win. In 2016 we were confident Hillary would win, but because 40 million registered Democrats did not vote, Trump won.
Pls join me in reaching out to moderate and low-propensity voters.
We need millions of low-propensity Democrats (a polite term for not motivated to vote), Independents, and undecideds to vote for Kamala. There are also some Republicans who are disgusted with Trump but they don’t want to “become a Democrat” – we need to inform them that voting Blue is in their best interests. WE CANNOT WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WITHOUT MILLIONS OF THEIR VOTES.
Two wonderful organizations - Galvanize Action - https://www.galvanizeaction.org/ - and One For All - https://oneforallcommittee.org/ -- are expert in crafting campaign messages to motivate people to vote Blue. They reach out to moderate women who admire Kamala but are married to Trumpers – giving them a nudge to follow their own common sense and vote for Kamala. Their messages are tried and true - created by veteran campaign experts, social psychologists, and data scientists - and are constantly tested and refined.
Another action step – Pls. support the work of kick-ass investigative reporter, Justin Glawe. Only $5 a month gives you a subscription to his mighty Substack: “American Doom” - https://www.american-doom.com/p/how-georgia-election-officials-will - Justin does deep investigations into the shenanigans of the Georgia board of elections and has uncovered a lot of malfeasance. GA Republicans are doing everything they can to depress Democratic turnout, even submitting fake Death Certificates to have registered voters removed from the rolls. Much of this is only known due to Justin Glawe’s work. He writes for The Guardian and Rolling Stone; but he’s a freelance writer. Which means, in addition to no regular paycheck, he has to pay for all the FOIA (Freedom of Information) requests on his own. It also means if he’s sued, there’s no publication to cover his legal defense. Please join me in supporting him!