Trump’s standard tactic is to lie. Truth has no value to him. He says whatever he thinks serves his purposes. He claims he’s ahead b/c that gives him license to claim fraud if he loses. Btw, I am currently in Northern GA. The folks up here are sure Trump will win b/c everyone they know is voting for him. I saw a trailer festooned w/ Trump paraphernalia. Trump’s ability to convince poor folks that he , Musk, and all their billionaire supporters are on their side is a magic trick to put Houdini to shame
Musk said yesterday that T’s economic plans will cause “temporary hardship” for Americans. That’s like saying excruciating pain is discomfort. And you better believe it won’t be the fat cats that feel the hardship. It’s us regular folk.
This is the thing that I find most fascinating about Trump. His ability to, despite being a silver spoon billionaire, convince people that he’s a working class hero. That he understands the common man’s plight. I believe it has more to do with his connecting to people on a real visceral level, that normal politicians never do. People “see themselves” in Trump, which again, fascinates me.
Trump jumped out in front of the parade of people disgruntled about social change and demographics. But jeez, now Musk pouring in millions and folks think this is a movement “for the people” ???Trump broke almost every promise he made last time. But somehow people believe his new array of promises. He rails about high prices. But his only real plan- tariffs - would raise prices. You can fool some people all of the time.
It is a fascinating phenomenon. You would think other politicians would try to learn from it, but they're apparently too brain dead to do so. The essence of it (IMO) is that Trump is (or at least seems to be) unfiltered, "telling it like it is" (according to Trump). Contrast Kamala, who seems to have focus-group-tested every bit of word salad that she spits out. Is she still in favor of taxpayer-paid sex trait modification surgeries for prisoners, as she was in 2019? She won't say! "That's a remote issue" she sez. Well she can take a nice long vacation on a remote island after she loses.
Telling it like it is? He spews lie after lie and hollow promise after hollow promise. Last time around, he promised a wall, payment from Mexico, a new healthcare plan, a new infrastructure plan, a better Iran nuke deal. These time, he’s offering various new tax breaks, seemingly off the top of his head. Btw, are you unaware that the Trump admin’s budget office conceded in 2018 that transgender inmates were entitled to treatment by law? Last I heard, 2 such surgeries had occurred. Is this really a dispositive issue for any serious person?
It is for me, because it is part of an ideology that is resulting in an ongoing crime against humanity, the medical "transing" of gay kids. Thousands of gay kids are being mutilated and sterilized every year in this country. This is the result of an ideology that is homophobic in the worst possible way, and this anti-gay ideology is fully backed by the Democrats. https://artymorty.substack.com/p/there-are-no-trans-kids-only-kids
Re prisoners, the issue is not what the law currently is, the issue is whether the law should be changed.
But on the original point, Kamala simply cannot give a straight answer. She could say "yes, I was right about that in 2019 and that is still my position". Or she could say, "I've learned more since 2019, and I've changed my mind, and here is why." But she doesn't do either. She deflects. She dissembles. She does so in a way that Trump never does (but most other politicians do). This is IMO Trump's superpower: he tells you what he actually thinks. It does not matter very much if what he thinks is wrong or stupid or whatever; it is just so fucking refreshing to hear a politician say what he thinks. People love it. Why no other politiicans have figured that out yet is a great mystery.
Well, I’m glad you find Trump “refreshing.” I find nothing refreshing about a guy who has been lying about election fraud for years; has been found liable by juries for sexual assault and fraud; has been credibly accused of sexual assaults by numerous women; deemed unfit by Kelly, Mattis, Esper , Mathews , Tillerson, etc; encouraged his flock to march on the Capitol and said “so what” when his VP was endangered. But he’s funny at rallies . So it’s all good
Not understanding this phenomenon is why Kamala is so close to losing. I think she would be several points ahead if she would just speak openly and honestly about what she actually believes. Trying to hide it (as she clearly is on the trans prisoner issue) only makes people suspect that she is not being honest on many other issues. It's a losing formula when up against Trump's openness.
Of course not because it doesn’t fit your narrative. I don’t care enough to walk you back through your own comments and logic. I just hope your election night makes you feel better.
Apparently so is yours? You’re saying no value to this point despite Chris’ original post saying it’s at worst a 50/50. C’mon, your neighbors are as biased as you and I’m sorry to break that obvious fact to you.
“Confidence” in this case is exactly the same thing as “magical thinking “….and can lead to apathy. We saw this in 2016, when the confidence in a Clinton win was so high that votes went uncast or squandered.. Terrified Democrats, Independents, and principled Republicans will vote in far larger numbers than confident Trumpists.
Chris, you're too horse-race on the VA voter purge. SCOTUS just overturned established law with a body of precedent. That's not normal jurisprudence, that's a bad sign of where this court is mentally
Chris is COMPLETELY out of his element when it comes to legal matters.
It’s not just that SCOTUS has violated precedent and their own “Purcel Principle” of not making changes near an election (which they have sited previously when it suited Republicans, like the Alabama gerrymandering case), but it violated federal law as well.
Joyce Vance, former federal prosecutor who writes the excellent Civil Discourse Substack column, wrote an excellent article today (or yesterday) that makes it clear the hypocrisy of this current 6-3 court. Read that article, as there is substantially more actual true information in a single sentence of it than Chris Cillizza’s also-ran mention.
BREAKING NEWS: Candidate's supporters express high confidence that said candidate will win. (See: McGovern, Mondale, McCain, Romney, H. Clinton, and... Trump)
There’s a theory that the Rs want to make it seem unlikely that Harris can win to delegitimize a result they don’t like. It’s all very stressful and anxiety-making!
And yes, Rest Is History very much helps with the stress
Chris there's what is called QUIET CONFIDENCE AND OPTIMISM. That's what the Democrats have. We will see who wins next week. Irrational exuberance and confidence or quiet OPTIMISM and confidence.
💯 correct, and Chris once again misses the significance entirely. Good thing for those writing in the Comments to bring the actual reality of the situation into focus!
Will be interested to see discussion on this story tomorrow after all the time wasted on the "garbage" non-story today. Really, Trump and Vance are delicate snowflakes who were grievously hurt by an insult? They might try cleaning up their own acts first.
Meanwhile Nikki Haley had some harsh words for Trump and he's not going to like it.
The 300,000 Puerto Ricans who live PA are going to have a lot to say about this. This story has legs because with every day that passes, and Trump dissembles and denies knowing anything about the comic, the Puerto Rican community grows angrier, which is highly problematic for Trump
All the GOP chest thumping is trying to discourage Dems from voting. They forget that Dems are focused on abortion rights, and Harris' vision for the future. But the voting might not even matter. I worry that the SCOTUS will find some way to hand it to trump. The conservative wing is bought and paid for.
$2.8 billion has been bet on the US presidential election, just with those two sites. The richest man in the world is paying for Trump votes with his phony lottery and using his platform to sway the election his way. Meanwhile, other billionaires are sucking up to Trump like remoras on a shark or hiding in plain sight re their favored candidate. What the heck is going on?
GOP voters are being fed non-stop B.S. via the right wing media ecosystem that Trump is strong and he is winning. None of this propaganda is accurate, but these people are getting indoctrinated.
I think that Republicans are certain that they will win because they have been fed, non-stop propaganda by right-wing "news" outlets like Fox, NEWSMAX, OAN, Breitbart and a plethora of podcasts that are all pushing the same narrative that says essentially, "Donald Trump is leading in the polls, he is strong and Harris who is trailing is weak". They never mention that a majority of those polls in the last couple of months were performed by pollsters with dubious past results, paid for by either the Trump campaign or those in league with the Trump campaign. The narrative that the more main stream media then repeats, is that Trump is either leading or passing Harris in the polls because after dumping the large number of their "red wave" polls, the polling aggregator sites should their averages moving towards Trump. In the campaign there has been no events that would prompt a move towards Trump, unless you somehow count his buffoonish and increasingly erratic and in the case of the Madison Square Garden event, openly racist and misogynistic. Oh, by the way, Trump is laying the groundwork to claim the election is rigged and stolen, when he suffers his defeat. Remember that Jan 6th, 2021, is the beginning point for where the violent Trumpist behavior will start. Since the Republicans have in effect forgiven Trump for that attempt to overthrow our government and steal the 2020 election, he has learned the lesson that his illegal behaviors will not be seriously opposed. This is how democracies die, when the collapse under the onslaught of populist autocrats. When the citizens willingly vote these autocrats into power, seeking to trade their liberty for what? comfort? -the misguided notion that they are following God's will?
It's true that the Trump campaign is exuding confidence, but (as implied by other remarks), I'm pretty sure he'd be exuding the exact same amount of confidence if he were polling 10%. It doesn't seem to matter. Also, while a lot of Democrats are maintaining their traditional hand-wringy mien, some of the never-Trump Republicans (especially at the Bulwark) seem very bullish on Harris. Maybe they're just bringing their Republican MO with them.
The way that both sides are ballyhooing a tied race reminds me of the PR battle being fought alongside the Russia/Ukraine war, excuse me, special military operation (hey, I just had a flashback about the Viet Nam war being called a "police action"). I'd say Ukraine has the edge on that, since their mix of reporting and propaganda aligns with publicly visible satellite data much more often than the Russophile press.
But Chris that's exactly what you're doing here for the Republicans. You have the Cult leader with his two thumbs up implying victory. And then you went on to explain (albeit without real evidence) why they (Republicans)exude such fake confidence. Trump good at faking it until he makes it you stated .So is it the cat calling the kettle black..ha ha ha
Typical that Cillizza can’t respond to serious questions about his so-called “lack of bias”, but happily pops up when his ego gets the better of him and another Substack writer is mentioned.
Hey Chris! You can disagree with Simon Rosenberg’s views, as he is an acknowledged Democratic operative, but how about when legal scholars like Joyce Vance, historians like Heather Cox Richardson, and Republicans like JVL, Bill Kristol, Tim Miller, etc. disagree with your take and have the receipts?
I know you're not a fan Chris, and I get it, but can I just say in this moment of peak anxiety and bedwetting, sometimes it's nice to be told what you want to hear on a daily basis. It's soothing.
What you write makes my eye twitch sometimes! (Though I appreciate you giving us the truth)
Trump’s standard tactic is to lie. Truth has no value to him. He says whatever he thinks serves his purposes. He claims he’s ahead b/c that gives him license to claim fraud if he loses. Btw, I am currently in Northern GA. The folks up here are sure Trump will win b/c everyone they know is voting for him. I saw a trailer festooned w/ Trump paraphernalia. Trump’s ability to convince poor folks that he , Musk, and all their billionaire supporters are on their side is a magic trick to put Houdini to shame
Musk said yesterday that T’s economic plans will cause “temporary hardship” for Americans. That’s like saying excruciating pain is discomfort. And you better believe it won’t be the fat cats that feel the hardship. It’s us regular folk.
This is the thing that I find most fascinating about Trump. His ability to, despite being a silver spoon billionaire, convince people that he’s a working class hero. That he understands the common man’s plight. I believe it has more to do with his connecting to people on a real visceral level, that normal politicians never do. People “see themselves” in Trump, which again, fascinates me.
Trump jumped out in front of the parade of people disgruntled about social change and demographics. But jeez, now Musk pouring in millions and folks think this is a movement “for the people” ???Trump broke almost every promise he made last time. But somehow people believe his new array of promises. He rails about high prices. But his only real plan- tariffs - would raise prices. You can fool some people all of the time.
It is a fascinating phenomenon. You would think other politicians would try to learn from it, but they're apparently too brain dead to do so. The essence of it (IMO) is that Trump is (or at least seems to be) unfiltered, "telling it like it is" (according to Trump). Contrast Kamala, who seems to have focus-group-tested every bit of word salad that she spits out. Is she still in favor of taxpayer-paid sex trait modification surgeries for prisoners, as she was in 2019? She won't say! "That's a remote issue" she sez. Well she can take a nice long vacation on a remote island after she loses.
Telling it like it is? He spews lie after lie and hollow promise after hollow promise. Last time around, he promised a wall, payment from Mexico, a new healthcare plan, a new infrastructure plan, a better Iran nuke deal. These time, he’s offering various new tax breaks, seemingly off the top of his head. Btw, are you unaware that the Trump admin’s budget office conceded in 2018 that transgender inmates were entitled to treatment by law? Last I heard, 2 such surgeries had occurred. Is this really a dispositive issue for any serious person?
It is for me, because it is part of an ideology that is resulting in an ongoing crime against humanity, the medical "transing" of gay kids. Thousands of gay kids are being mutilated and sterilized every year in this country. This is the result of an ideology that is homophobic in the worst possible way, and this anti-gay ideology is fully backed by the Democrats. https://artymorty.substack.com/p/there-are-no-trans-kids-only-kids
Re prisoners, the issue is not what the law currently is, the issue is whether the law should be changed.
But on the original point, Kamala simply cannot give a straight answer. She could say "yes, I was right about that in 2019 and that is still my position". Or she could say, "I've learned more since 2019, and I've changed my mind, and here is why." But she doesn't do either. She deflects. She dissembles. She does so in a way that Trump never does (but most other politicians do). This is IMO Trump's superpower: he tells you what he actually thinks. It does not matter very much if what he thinks is wrong or stupid or whatever; it is just so fucking refreshing to hear a politician say what he thinks. People love it. Why no other politiicans have figured that out yet is a great mystery.
Well, I’m glad you find Trump “refreshing.” I find nothing refreshing about a guy who has been lying about election fraud for years; has been found liable by juries for sexual assault and fraud; has been credibly accused of sexual assaults by numerous women; deemed unfit by Kelly, Mattis, Esper , Mathews , Tillerson, etc; encouraged his flock to march on the Capitol and said “so what” when his VP was endangered. But he’s funny at rallies . So it’s all good
Not understanding this phenomenon is why Kamala is so close to losing. I think she would be several points ahead if she would just speak openly and honestly about what she actually believes. Trying to hide it (as she clearly is on the trans prisoner issue) only makes people suspect that she is not being honest on many other issues. It's a losing formula when up against Trump's openness.
💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯
Of course not because it doesn’t fit your narrative. I don’t care enough to walk you back through your own comments and logic. I just hope your election night makes you feel better.
No need to be nasty. It’s a long thread and I couldn’t link your comment to anything I said. Jeez
Apparently so is yours? You’re saying no value to this point despite Chris’ original post saying it’s at worst a 50/50. C’mon, your neighbors are as biased as you and I’m sorry to break that obvious fact to you.
I don’t know what you’re responding to or what point you are trying to make
“Confidence” in this case is exactly the same thing as “magical thinking “….and can lead to apathy. We saw this in 2016, when the confidence in a Clinton win was so high that votes went uncast or squandered.. Terrified Democrats, Independents, and principled Republicans will vote in far larger numbers than confident Trumpists.
Also I remember 2012 when Republicans were so sure Romney would win. He was up in the polls, then...well you know the rest. Karl Rove never recovered.
You’re Correct:
Chris, you're too horse-race on the VA voter purge. SCOTUS just overturned established law with a body of precedent. That's not normal jurisprudence, that's a bad sign of where this court is mentally
Chris is COMPLETELY out of his element when it comes to legal matters.
It’s not just that SCOTUS has violated precedent and their own “Purcel Principle” of not making changes near an election (which they have sited previously when it suited Republicans, like the Alabama gerrymandering case), but it violated federal law as well.
Joyce Vance, former federal prosecutor who writes the excellent Civil Discourse Substack column, wrote an excellent article today (or yesterday) that makes it clear the hypocrisy of this current 6-3 court. Read that article, as there is substantially more actual true information in a single sentence of it than Chris Cillizza’s also-ran mention.
BREAKING NEWS: Candidate's supporters express high confidence that said candidate will win. (See: McGovern, Mondale, McCain, Romney, H. Clinton, and... Trump)
Exactly!😆👍
There’s a theory that the Rs want to make it seem unlikely that Harris can win to delegitimize a result they don’t like. It’s all very stressful and anxiety-making!
And yes, Rest Is History very much helps with the stress
It’s not a theory. It’s Trump’s standard practice. If he loses, he claims fraud b/c , after all, he said he was ahead.
Chris there's what is called QUIET CONFIDENCE AND OPTIMISM. That's what the Democrats have. We will see who wins next week. Irrational exuberance and confidence or quiet OPTIMISM and confidence.
“SCOTUS sides with GOP in ballot purge” is a misleading headline.
What it SHOULD read is (hat tip to Kevin Drum)....
“Republicans on Supreme Court rule that the law doesn’t apply to Republicans”
https://jabberwocking.com/republicans-on-supreme-court-rule-that-the-law-doesnt-apply-to-republicans/
The law is plain and simple. You can’t purge voter rolls within 90 days of an election.
Period.
There is NO Other way to interpret this law.
There can be NO DOUBT WHATSOEVER…..the 6 radical right wing Supreme Court justices are pure, 100% PARTISAN HACKS!!
Period.
This should be a HUGE scandal that, if we had a health media in a democracy, would be a HUGE story.
💯 correct, and Chris once again misses the significance entirely. Good thing for those writing in the Comments to bring the actual reality of the situation into focus!
Will be interested to see discussion on this story tomorrow after all the time wasted on the "garbage" non-story today. Really, Trump and Vance are delicate snowflakes who were grievously hurt by an insult? They might try cleaning up their own acts first.
Meanwhile Nikki Haley had some harsh words for Trump and he's not going to like it.
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/nikki-haley-trump-msg-rally-bromance-election-b2638231.html
I think it needs to be said - Harris is consistently AHEAD in a consensus of the polls, not behind.
The 300,000 Puerto Ricans who live PA are going to have a lot to say about this. This story has legs because with every day that passes, and Trump dissembles and denies knowing anything about the comic, the Puerto Rican community grows angrier, which is highly problematic for Trump
👍👍👍
All the GOP chest thumping is trying to discourage Dems from voting. They forget that Dems are focused on abortion rights, and Harris' vision for the future. But the voting might not even matter. I worry that the SCOTUS will find some way to hand it to trump. The conservative wing is bought and paid for.
$2.8 billion has been bet on the US presidential election, just with those two sites. The richest man in the world is paying for Trump votes with his phony lottery and using his platform to sway the election his way. Meanwhile, other billionaires are sucking up to Trump like remoras on a shark or hiding in plain sight re their favored candidate. What the heck is going on?
GOP voters are being fed non-stop B.S. via the right wing media ecosystem that Trump is strong and he is winning. None of this propaganda is accurate, but these people are getting indoctrinated.
So true! The convicted felon’s whole M. O. is indoctrination!😵💫😵💫😵💫
I am very nervous. I am hoping that we know on Tuesday night which way this goes, wishful thinking I know. This scares me. https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/little-secret-trump-johnson-election/ The Supreme Court is in the tank for Trump, IMO. There is so much more to all,of this and it gets overwhelming.
I think that Republicans are certain that they will win because they have been fed, non-stop propaganda by right-wing "news" outlets like Fox, NEWSMAX, OAN, Breitbart and a plethora of podcasts that are all pushing the same narrative that says essentially, "Donald Trump is leading in the polls, he is strong and Harris who is trailing is weak". They never mention that a majority of those polls in the last couple of months were performed by pollsters with dubious past results, paid for by either the Trump campaign or those in league with the Trump campaign. The narrative that the more main stream media then repeats, is that Trump is either leading or passing Harris in the polls because after dumping the large number of their "red wave" polls, the polling aggregator sites should their averages moving towards Trump. In the campaign there has been no events that would prompt a move towards Trump, unless you somehow count his buffoonish and increasingly erratic and in the case of the Madison Square Garden event, openly racist and misogynistic. Oh, by the way, Trump is laying the groundwork to claim the election is rigged and stolen, when he suffers his defeat. Remember that Jan 6th, 2021, is the beginning point for where the violent Trumpist behavior will start. Since the Republicans have in effect forgiven Trump for that attempt to overthrow our government and steal the 2020 election, he has learned the lesson that his illegal behaviors will not be seriously opposed. This is how democracies die, when the collapse under the onslaught of populist autocrats. When the citizens willingly vote these autocrats into power, seeking to trade their liberty for what? comfort? -the misguided notion that they are following God's will?
I hate to say this, but you are 💯 correct, John. God help us.
It's true that the Trump campaign is exuding confidence, but (as implied by other remarks), I'm pretty sure he'd be exuding the exact same amount of confidence if he were polling 10%. It doesn't seem to matter. Also, while a lot of Democrats are maintaining their traditional hand-wringy mien, some of the never-Trump Republicans (especially at the Bulwark) seem very bullish on Harris. Maybe they're just bringing their Republican MO with them.
The way that both sides are ballyhooing a tied race reminds me of the PR battle being fought alongside the Russia/Ukraine war, excuse me, special military operation (hey, I just had a flashback about the Viet Nam war being called a "police action"). I'd say Ukraine has the edge on that, since their mix of reporting and propaganda aligns with publicly visible satellite data much more often than the Russophile press.
Luckily Hopium Chronicles believes the opposite
Ha! Everything is awesome always for Democrats!!! What a business plan.
But Chris that's exactly what you're doing here for the Republicans. You have the Cult leader with his two thumbs up implying victory. And then you went on to explain (albeit without real evidence) why they (Republicans)exude such fake confidence. Trump good at faking it until he makes it you stated .So is it the cat calling the kettle black..ha ha ha
You are exactly right. Chris has reported the boasting of Trump’s team as something more credible than the hopeium about which he expresses disdain.
Typical that Cillizza can’t respond to serious questions about his so-called “lack of bias”, but happily pops up when his ego gets the better of him and another Substack writer is mentioned.
Hey Chris! You can disagree with Simon Rosenberg’s views, as he is an acknowledged Democratic operative, but how about when legal scholars like Joyce Vance, historians like Heather Cox Richardson, and Republicans like JVL, Bill Kristol, Tim Miller, etc. disagree with your take and have the receipts?
Chris I mean the pot calling the kettle black.
Simon Rosenburg lays about a meticulous data driven plan and analysis. From your slight of hand, sounds like maybe you are envious, yes?
Nah. We are concerned, maybe even terrified, and taking nothing for granted. And voting. And voting.
Women are turning out 4 to 1 for Harris. This Election is over:
I don’t believe Simon Rosenberg is engaging in wishful thinking. His analysis is rigorous and persuasive.
I know you're not a fan Chris, and I get it, but can I just say in this moment of peak anxiety and bedwetting, sometimes it's nice to be told what you want to hear on a daily basis. It's soothing.
What you write makes my eye twitch sometimes! (Though I appreciate you giving us the truth)