CHRIS CRUCIAL: Why the craziest electoral scenario *could* happen

PLUS: The Nebraska winner-take-all fight is over

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1. 269-269

It’s getting to be silly season in politics. There are polls (and more polls) out every day. These polls often saying contradictory things. Partisans are predicting that every story is THE ONE that is going to break the race wide open. Every molehill seems like a mountain.

My advice: 1) Take a deep breath because we still have 43 days until the election and 2) Always always always remember that the electoral map is all that matters.

Let’s talk some about #2.

The New York Times/Siena College released three swing states polls — in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia — on Monday. All three showed Donald Trump ahead.

So, just as a thought experiment, let’s say that those three state DO fall for Trump in November. (I personally think those are the three hardest states for Kamala Harris to win out of the 7 total swing states.) That map would look like this:

Trump would be 8 electoral votes short of 270. Which means he could also win Nevada and lose to Harris 270-268 — if he was unable to win any of the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Here’s that map:

But, what if Harris doesn’t win Nebraska’s 2nd district? (MUCH more on the situation in Nebraska below.) After all, Hillary Clinton didn’t win it in 2016. Neither did Barack Obama in 2012. It’s no sure thing! If Harris did lose all 5 electoral votes in Nebraska, we’d have this map:

Meaning neither Trump nor Harris got to 270 electoral votes. And neither could claim the presidency. (Last week, the 538 election model said there was a 1 in a 100 chance that this scenario could happen!)

If that 269-269 tie did occur, the new Congress — in January 2025 — would pick the president and vice president. The House would be charged with the picking the president while the Senate would choose the vice president. (This is all governed by the 12th Amendment.)

In the House, every state congressional delegation would get a single vote for president. The first candidate to secure 26 votes would be the president.

Who would that favor today? Trump — because Republicans have a majority in 26 state delegations.

That could, of course, change in the coming election.

It’s important to remember this has NEVER happened in the history of the modern, 538-vote electoral college. The closest we have come in recent decades was in 2000 when George W. Bush took 271 electoral votes to 266 for Al Gore. In 2004, Bush had another close call in the electoral college — beating John Kerry 286-251.

So, I am not saying it’s likely to happen. But I am saying it could happen.

2. Trump loses in Nebraska

Despite the best efforts of Donald Trump and his allies, it appears as though Nebraska will not change its electoral vote law — meaning that it will not become a winner-take-all state this November.

State Sen. Mike McDonnell appeared to doom that effort Monday. Despite switching from Democrat to Republican earlier this year, McDonnell said in a statement he would not be the 33rd vote needed to break an expected filibuster if the state’s GOP governor called a special session to change how the state allocates its electoral votes.

“In recent weeks, a conversation around whether to change how we allocate our Electoral College votes has returned to the forefront,” McDonnell said in the statement. “I respect the desire of some of my colleagues to have this discussion, and I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer, who along with her four GOP congressional colleagues signed a public letter a week ago urging the legislature to change the rules, declared on Monday: “It’s over.”

Nebraska is one of two states — Maine is the other — that does not allocate all of its electoral votes based on which presidential candidate wins the state. In Nebraska, the statewide winner gets 2 electoral votes; the highest vote-getter in each of the 3 congressional districts gets 1 electoral vote each.

In 2020, Joe Biden took a single electoral vote out of Nebraska when he carried the Omaha-based 2nd district. Ditto Barack Obama in 2008.

Trump and his allies — Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham to name two — sought to ensure he took all 5 electoral votes out of the solidly Republican state under the belief that the election could be very, very close (see above!).

3. Anthony D’Esposito, call your office

Here’s a headline — in the New York Times, no less!!! — you never want to see if you are an elected official: “A Congressman Had an Affair. Then He Put His Lover on the Payroll.”

The Congressman in question is Anthony D’Esposito, a Republican elected in 2022 in a Democratic-leaning Long Island district.

And, if that headline is bad, the actual story is worse:

Shortly after taking the oath of office, the first-term congressman hired his longtime fiancée’s daughter to work as a special assistant in his district office, eventually bumping her salary to about $3,800 a month, payroll records show.

In April, Mr. D’Esposito added someone even closer to him to his payroll: a woman with whom he was having an affair, according to four people familiar with the relationship. The woman, Devin Faas, collected $2,000 a month for a part-time job in the same district office.

Payments to both women stopped abruptly several months later, in July 2023, records show, around the time that Mr. D’Esposito’s fiancée found out about his relationship with Ms. Faas and briefly broke up with him, according to the four people.

Mr. D’Esposito has not been publicly accused of wrongdoing, but his employment of the two women, which resulted in the payment of about $29,000 in taxpayer funds, could expose him to discipline in the House of Representatives.

Even before the Times story, D’Esposito was a major Democratic target in this election. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the race a “toss up.”

Given the likely narrow margins in the House, every seat matters. And this story is going to, um, complicate D’Esposito’s reelection prospects.

4. The single most amazing poll # on Kamala Harris

The rise of Kamala Harris over the past two months has been well documented. But I simply cannot get over the fact that between July and today, she went from not popular at all to, now, a well-liked political figure. It’s stunning. So, I made a video all about it. If you don’t subscribe to my YouTube channel, I hope you do it today! It’s free — and I am making videos every single day!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“A sex scandal in North Carolina is between the Lieutenant Governor and the people of North Carolina.” — JD Vance, hopefully, about Mark Robinson

ONE GOOD CHART

Admission: I live less than one mile from my mom. (This chart is from 2015. But it still rocks.)

SONG OF THE DAY

I didn’t know until today that Father John Misty (aka Joshua Tilman) has a new album — called “Mahashmashana” — out November 22. GREAT news. This is the first release off of it: “Screamland.”

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